Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[TalcottWx]

The people on the edge of the Tobin after every model run are just brutal 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

JMA is full of win:

[CoastalWx]

The good news is that when the features get into play, we may start to see adjustments. Of course barring any issues from Canada. But big time convection will help pump heights ahead of it too. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Was hoping we'd still get a hook and stall situation. But seems more progressive in latest runs. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just noticed BOX already has watches up for the Boston and the coast.

[mahk_webstah]

sojmetimes the weenies know when its going to shite.  its like a deep emotional pattern recognition that a model analysis can't capture.  Euro surely surely goes east, or else has a way to solve that PV problem

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

sojmetimes the weenies know when its going to shite.  its like a deep emotional pattern recognition that a model analysis can't capture.  Euro surely surely goes east, or else has a way to solve that PV problem

More PV more problems

[PhineasC]

SE MA will soon be outside looking in too probably. Still room to slide right. The good snow zone is already very narrow. 

[wxsniss]

Trend this on all the GFS runs today... slowly ticking more stout with every run

Not sure if this is what ORH / CoastalWx are referring to, but it's definitely blunting the trough sharpness. A more robust northern energy and sooner interaction with southern energy can definitely overcome this negative, but something to watch.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More PV more problems

Careful not to add an "I" in between that.

[HinghamBoss]

Not overreacting yet.  Let’s see if we get the inevitable jog back west at 0z.  Won’t take more than 50-75 miles back west 

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I wonder if the ensemble sensitivity shifts from the NS sw to the PV pressing down.  What drives the pressing down of the PV?  Is it something over the North Atlantic?

the tpv

[Spanks45]

WOR crew is definitely sitting this one out... writing is on the wall, that PV means business it seems regardless with the other chess pieces on the board at the moment...50s next week will feel great

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

Not overreacting yet.  Let’s see if we get the inevitable jog back west at 0z.  Won’t take more than 50-75 miles back west 

thanos thought he was inevitable too, we all know how that turned out

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I wonder if the ensemble sensitivity shifts from the NS sw to the PV pressing down.  What drives the pressing down of the PV?  Is it something over the North Atlantic?

There is sensitivity to that area, but we want higher heights for a closer to the coast track. The problem is this sensitivity shows its hand late in the game vs. the northern stream shortwave.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

GEFS mean is slightly west. Tighter spread.

[JC-CT]

On 1/24/2022 at 6:43 AM, CoastalWx said:

That due north Canadian scenario into SNE is on play. Careful what you wish for. At least something to track. LOL at the out to sea weenies yesterday. 

Ha. Ha. Ha.

[EastonSN+]

Stole this from the MA thread cause it's funny. Obviously opposite issue but.

[RI Rob]

With each run the trend east continues. Why do we think that will change at 00z?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

WOR crew is definitely sitting this one out... writing is on the wall, that PV means business it seems regardless with the other chess pieces on the board at the moment...50s next week will feel great

Is it still a HECS if it only hits a 50 mile wide coastal strip in MA and nowhere else?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Ha. Ha. Ha.

That and the McClane GIF on repeat. LOL

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The good news is that when the features get into play, we may start to see adjustments. Of course barring any issues from Canada. But big time convection will help pump heights ahead of it too. 

Yeah this is a southern stream juicer and they typically go through a period of amping up on model guidance between like D3-36 hours. But obviously that doesn’t have to happen every single time if there’s something else offsetting it. 

[JC-CT]

If this doesn't improve, the obvious painful part is that it's so close.

[mimillman]

Well, going to give it another day chaps before booking giving trends today, but pulling for you all.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

If this doesn't improve, the obvious painful part is that it's so close.

At this point I just want someone in New England to get hammered. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I just want someone in New England to get hammered. 

I could see most of the board getting hammered tonight

[Snowcrazed71]

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse and my eight year old laugh at how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse of my eight year old left how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

Why does your eight year old have a spouse

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse of my eight year old left how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

[mattm4242]

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