Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[George001]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Everyone is IMBY at the end of the day.  

Guilty as charged here.

[CT Rain]

First cut of snow totals I have is 3-6 west of I-91 and 6-12 east of I-91. I've got 12+ inside 495 and most of RI. 

[Heisy]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.

It's absolutely devastating, especially down here in Philly, that mother nature deciding to hold back this wave just slightly cost us a potential MECS. Absolutely brutal.

Still rooting for you all because I plan to chase somewhere in MA

[moneypitmike]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, was just gonna say...that run is 2'+here.

I'm feeling that the 495 loop should do very well--but the eastern ticks can't be ignored.  And, we haven't gotten to Messenger Shuffle range yet, either.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

First cut of snow totals I have is 3-6 west of I-91 and 6-12 east of I-91. I've got 12+ inside 495 and most of RI. 

so tell us what you really think about Wiz's map 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Has Ray done a first call?  I assume tonight if not?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’ll wait until 0z but this is looking like 3-5” is a real possibility for NW MA if we start ticking further East the next 24 hours. 
The winter had been so bad,that at this point, the only way I’ll fully melt down is if there is a rug pull that gives me nothing and that is highly unlikely. 
 

[WeatherWilly]

Hartford is right on the line of getting close to the major totals forecasted for Providence Boston but they will need Euro to verify and and the other models to come a bit west.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

First cut of snow totals I have is 3-6 west of I-91 and 6-12 east of I-91. I've got 12+ inside 495 and most of RI. 

Seems reasonable. Hope it holds 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Has Ray done a first call?  I assume tonight if not?

Gimme like an hour..

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

so tell us what you really think about Wiz's map 

Obviously it’s a first call…it will have to be adjusted going over the next couple days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tossing Gfs nonsense and your first map goes 6-12 to NY border and 12-20 river east 

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are still pretty good...a little east of 06z but there is still a lot of skew to the west side, and there's actually fewer ridiculously east members....narrowing the spread on this run

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

This going to settle and tick best west a bit tonight, IMO....however, in the mean time, I will book telehealth for any WOR clients who see fit- We can contract for safety...

[EastonSN+]

Is a result similar to the 6z EURO still plausible?

GFS has been really consistent.

[Chrisrotary12]

Somehow this storm is still 3 days away in the model guidance. Doesn't really get going until 12z Saturday.

[SJonesWX]

11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

First cut of snow totals I have is 3-6 west of I-91 and 6-12 east of I-91. I've got 12+ inside 495 and most of RI. 

DIT just smashed his laptop.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This going to settle and tick best west a bit tonight, IMO....however, in the mean time, I will book telehealth for any WOR clients who see fit- We can contract for safety...

I live dangerously I will go in the office!

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

Dong ding ding. West of mean. Huge 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Damn. Can someone post the indie members?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Somehow this storm is still 3 days away in the model guidance. Doesn't really get going until 12z Saturday.

That's what happens when you start a thread 15 days in advance.

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Has Ray done a first call?  I assume tonight if not?

He's working on it now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I live dangerously I will go in the office!

I do therapy sessions from home, so I'll pass lol

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All guidance systems have the spread concentrated west of the mean low position, with the dominant EOF pattern represented by a closer to the coast storm. 

There is also good agreement across guidance systems that the northern stream shortwave really starts to dominate the sensitivity as it nears Lake Winnipeg. 

Makes sense .. because by those points along the trajectory of all, the amount of S/stream infusion is already registered, so that only leaves that. 

But also ... we've seen this many times in the past for waves diving SE through eastern Manitoba like that.  Are there are any shadowing issues above there in Canada.   How does that work up there - we don't have schmucks stationed in Met huts launching balloons.  How is that physically sampled?

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

so tell us what you really think about Wiz's map 

 

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously it’s a first call…it will have to be adjusted going over the next couple days. 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This going to settle and tick best west a bit tonight, IMO....however, in the mean time, I will book telehealth for any WOR clients who see fit- We can contract for safety...

when can I schedule?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dong ding ding. West of mean. Huge 

Folks are having a conniption in CT…Runway needs therapy lol. This is coming back west imo.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Damn. Can someone post the indie members?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

I think you’re more correct than not Wiz. 

[SouthCoastMA]

55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Verbatim… euro is probably a top 5 all time storm here. Just crushed. Wouldn’t want it to kick east much more though 

yeah verbatim would likely make top 3 here alongside '05 / '15