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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Convective feedback is a weenie excuse 

Yeah frequently it is, but sometimes it's real. The convective chasing on this storm has been pretty minimal so far...but it definitely seemed like that run did it a little.

I would've expected more QPF to be thrown into central/western SNE based on these two frames:

 

image.png.4aa2b05121efe355dad29d0875d60306.png

 

 

image.png.9702c4d847f27a8cbd3373efd1decaf3.png

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Says someone on Twitter....

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many of those tweets could you find two weeks ago? You probably didn't care because you got the 10mile wide band...

Why is everyone attacking every time I post something. It wasn't my idea. Someone else posted it on Twitter and I asked. The guy studies atmospheric science at Cornell. 

 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Just now, dendrite said:

I'm tossing the feedback excuse. It probably is a convective mesolow that deepens inside of the overall area of minimum pressure, but the primary wind field still appears to be converging on the western low.

Yeah that low could be spurious to the NE but I'm not sure it makes a whole lot of difference for the outcome in SNE.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

DE ME looks like they will get crushed. Prob 1-2 feet there on most guidance.

That run of the EURO looks just like March 14, 2018 just before it hit....I agree it would throw precip further west than that, though. Point is that it also appeared to jackpot PYM then, too....ended up IMBY

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah frequently it is, but sometimes it's real. The convective chasing on this storm has been pretty minimal so far...but it definitely seemed like that run did it a little.

I would've expected more QPF to be thrown into central/western SNE based on these two frames:

 

I'm tellin' y'all - it's because of what Will already mentioned re the next 60 hours.  Soon as he said the 'southern s/w was being left behind,' I didn't need bother looking at the run - yup, nailed it!

When the Euro shed southern stream absorption into the trough, it lost leading S/W ridge roll-out ahead.  Almost all the sensitivity in this is really isolate-able to that factor, and which is rooted back to that stream interaction. 

It's subtle, but HUGELY problematic for solutions farther W.  That loss causes the convection sequencing to run out ...   It'll let cut loose premature, before the trough arrives, and then race out as it starts pulling this apart.  

It's been really remarkably identifiable over the last 4 days of model monitoring - when the S stream fails to fuse in we see these types of E solutions, and vice versa.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

 

Why is everyone attacking every time I post something. It wasn't my idea. Someone else posted it on Twitter and I asked. The guy studies atmospheric science at Cornell. 

 

If he had tweeted something like "2-3 feet of snow seems likely for much of SNE" you would be hailed as a conquering hero!! 

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah frequently it is, but sometimes it's real. The convective chasing on this storm has been pretty minimal so far...but it definitely seemed like that run did it a little.

I would've expected more QPF to be thrown into central/western SNE based on these two frames:

 

image.png.4aa2b05121efe355dad29d0875d60306.png

 

 

image.png.9702c4d847f27a8cbd3373efd1decaf3.png

Yes indeed...

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