Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Chrisrotary12]

Remove the double low from the solution and the Euro is still perfect.

[hooralph]

I'm just gonna hang out here. The NYC forum must look like a bar in Buffalo this past Sunday night.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HalloweenGale said:

How does this still look for Cape and Islands

Looks fantastic if Euro is correct.

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm sure someone will post them, but what did the accumulation Maps look like

[George001]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Plenty good for me…especially at 2 plus days out.  

i completely agree, I don’t get the negativity here. It trended west yesterday and back east a little today. It will likely come back west some, Bernie Rayno talked about it on his stream, called it the windshield wiper effect and said not to get too caught up in the QPF and surface shifts from run to run. The only model that truly looked bad at 500 mb was the Canadian, I’d like to see that come back west at 0z. And even that still looked good for a foot of snow, just not the crazy amounts like the other guidance. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Def a trend east   

For now. It’s gonna nudge back west. Over the next 36 hrs. 

[tiger_deF]

The way I see it, while the general trend has been East the main player in this shift has been the S stream, which has repeatedly been buried farther and farther West. The North stream, in most models but especially the Euro, has actually looked more conductive as of late. If we can get a slight east shift in the southern stream, or even just halt the general regression, we still might have a HECS in the cards

 

That being said, I fully expect the 18z suite to make me look like a complete fool 

[mahk_webstah]

2.5-3 days out.  Airplane data tonight.  Sometimes these solutions start start to trend the other way.

[weathafella]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm sure someone will post them, but what did the accumulation Maps look like

12-24 for many based on population density.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Remove the double low from the solution and the Euro is still perfect.

Said everyone before my two week prior boning lol

[WeatherHappens]

2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

All the media really cares about is if it still hits the Providence to Boston corridor and that's still very likely.  

that's where the most people live.....should the focus on Truro? lol

[weathafella]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

2.5-3 days out.  Airplane data tonight.  Sometimes these solutions start start to trend the other way.

Forget your flight-everything will be canceled.  Maybe if you’re international you’ll get in...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

12-24 for many based on population density.

The qualifiers are starting to emerge in posts

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm sure someone will post them, but what did the accumulation Maps look like

[TalcottWx]

The signal has been BOS and SE MA throughout this lead up. So not really surprised. Still think deform is Steve kev orh to Ray. 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Said everyone before my two week prior boning lol

You know what I meant.

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection.  Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

Thank you for this very informative post John. Some folks need to look at this and  comprehend what you are saying. Appreciate the insight. 

[FXWX]

When looking at total qpf forecast, which are likely to be a bit underdone in some areas, remember this is highly unlikely to be a 10:1 ratio storm... 

[WeatherWilly]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

that's where the most people live.....should the focus on Truro? lol

Yes that's my point really. You would think by some of the posts here the news should cancel coverage of this.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, weathafella said:

Forget your flight-everything will be canceled.  Maybe if you’re international you’ll get in...

I am coming I. On a 777 from London.  We get wheels up at 5am and it shouldn’t be too bad then in Boston.  Isn’t it slowing a bit?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

The signal has been BOS and SE MA throughout this lead up. So not really surprised. Still think deform is Steve kev orh to Ray. 

Yea, was just gonna say...that run is 2'+here.

[wxsniss]

Deform band likely a bit farther NW than depicted, northeast CT to northeast MA, though this is trucking along

 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup. 

Personally, Your areas in the best spot with some just to the west of there if had to pick a place.

[MJO812]

Now this is a true La Nina storm

[PhineasC]

Writing is on the wall. Time to head back to upslope talk and working on turning the cutter into a SWFE. OTS is always the risk. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Personally, Your areas in the best spot with some just to the west of there if had to pick a place.

I like my area for mid levels

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The qualifiers are starting to emerge in posts

What’s your take?   It seems all about the capture.  Until that happened I was thinking uh oh.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Now this is a true La Nina storm

Donuts and coffee just strewn all around the cruiser.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Deform band likely a bit farther NW than depicted, northeast CT to northeast MA, though this is trucking along

 

 

We coochie. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

THIS.

If the EURO was 100% correct fine but what's to stop the east trend. 

Yup. The ticks are evident. Euro folding, barely brings warning snows to NY/CT border now.