Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You, Tblizz, Scooter, and the SEMA gang have nothing to fear. Whether it is 16 or 30, you'll get bombed. 

Pretty sure your right but we'll see how todays runs go.  Just want to keep some positive vibes going to the storm cancels going on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see nothing wrong with the GGEM.

It def. toned down quite a bit.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Whiff then cutter is a gut punch for sure. 

1980s

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

What is your bar? You sound like you expect 2-4”.

Leaning 6-10" for WCT.  

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

it is slowly slowing down probably enough for me to get in noon or 1pm Saturday.  fingers crossed.  777 coming into Logan has a shot if they clear the runway.  Wind shouldn't be a problem then.  I guess the capture is everything for us northern folks.

That has been the key, But also the track being more east-west if it doesn't for here back to you Brian and Phinn, Where this closes off and where it track once that happens, How far east  before it does, Is crucial for something more then pedestrian, We just keep monitoring for now, Still a lot of time left.

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Congrats Eastport.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Nothing wrong with it.

I think the issue lies in people who want historic (EURO and NAM) vs. people who just want a snow event (everything else).

[CT Valley Dryslot]

This chart tells all.  Look at the GFS score past the 23rd.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/images/acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.png

[The Graupler]

I don’t think it’s out of bounds at this juncture to put the jackpot in the Middleboro/West Plymouth area 

[GCWarrior]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you were spooked by the GFS, shield your eyes from the CMC. 

It was over the Cape last night.  Awful model. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It def. toned down quite a bit.

Sure, but expectations should still be in check until tomorrow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

We are def losing some of these insane runs, which is kind of to be expected. Nothing wrong with a foot of snow, but we aren’t seeing prolific amounts on most guidance anymore 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sure, but expectations should still be in check until tomorrow.

I don't that it will capture that late, or as early as EURO.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie def came west from 00z.

[WeatherWilly]

Some areas could see some epic snowmelt later next week with a 50 plus degree torch.

[IowaStorm05]

NeverMind my last question it’s the same thing.

I DONT actually think this is gonna go away. I think it’s waffling.

If the EURO reflects the CMC trend then I will begin to be bothered.

And news outlets are running amok with this thing. I’ve never heard CNN come out and say, “well yesterday we really thought a bomb cyclone was gonna happen but now we don’t think so”. I’m sure it’s happened but I don’t remember it. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[Baroclinic Zone]

Definitely a solid move westward by the Ukie given where it was at 00z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We are def losing some of these insane runs, which is kind of to be expected. Nothing wrong with a foot of snow, but we aren’t seeing prolific amounts on most guidance anymore 

You aren't going to see the deformation zone show up in QPF charts.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

show me the lie

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We are def losing some of these insane runs, which is kind of to be expected. Nothing wrong with a foot of snow, but we aren’t seeing prolific amounts on most guidance anymore 

GFS would still argue for some big totals, not just SE Mass. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie trended better with the ULL closing off...just need to get this done a smidge sooner to crush all of SNE instead of just eastern peeps.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, WeatherWilly said:

Some areas could see some epic snowmelt later next week with a 50 plus degree torch.

Eric Fisher approves of this post

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS would still argue for some big totals, not just SE Mass. 

It would drop 20-30" in ORH

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't that it will capture that late, or as early as EURO.

I can neither confirm nor deny this speculation.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pretty sure your right but we'll see how todays runs go.  Just want to keep some positive vibes going to the storm cancels going on.

My apologies if I sound like I am cancelling the storm because I'm not. I'm just cancelling any hope for a KU for WOR, that's all. I believe the last 18+ event for WOR was Feb13. Mar18 may of had a weenie band for extreme WCT that dropped 20" for select locals but WOR as a hole which includes Hippy and the CMA/WMA crew....was Feb13. And let's be honest here, if EMA hasn't seen an 18+ event in 8yrs, there would be an endless amount of keyboard slamming, amongst other damages. 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nothing wrong with it.

I think the issue lies in people who want historic (EURO and NAM) vs. people who just want a snow event (everything else).

Many areas to your north and east needed this storm to be excellent to salvage any type of respectable winter.  it's quickly slipping away into a pedestrian /moderate type deal.  Had the winter been "normal" around here and other areas, people wouldn't care as much.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

show me the lie

Giant thermonuclear fusion reaction will hurl massive amounts of energy toward the Earth!!!  Film at 11

[cleetussnow]

18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This has been a hugely successful storm

thread.

Look at all those pages!

from inception, the number of days between when this thread started and the storm will exceed the duration of the snowpack from the storm for many.  50s plus next week.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My apologies if I sound like I am cancelling the storm because I'm not. I'm just cancelling any hope for a KU for WOR, that's all. I believe the last 18+ event for WOR was Feb13. Mar18 may of had a weenie band for extreme WCT that dropped 20" for select locals but WOR as a hole which includes Hippy and the CMA/WMA crew....was Feb13. And let's be honest here, if EMA hasn't seen an 18+ event in 8yrs, there would be an endless amount of keyboard slamming. 

I think it's a premature cancel, even if the Euro does move east. Sometimes these things all take in incomplete data that skew that output the same way, only to all correct the same way in a following cycle. It's still 84 hours out.