Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GEFS made a late recover with a lot of left leaning members by 78-84hrs.  Still a tug east though from 06z.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hate beer but ok.  

 

We knew the play before the euro broke the huddle. 

he can buy you a shirley temple

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. 

What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came! 

It did very briefly in the very beginning. Then straight snow all the way through.

[tiger_deF]

[Spaizzo]

1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, I’m still going to go with that headline is media hype.  Enjoy the snow, bro.

I wouldn’t call it hype as much as preparing people for the worst. People need flashy words for things to settle in. Nor’easters can be pretty bad as a hurricane. Otherwise you have people traveling and being stuck on highways for 14 hours like what happened in the case of the holiday storm. 

[SouthCoastMA]

If you were spooked by the GFS, shield your eyes from the CMC. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

he can buy you a shirley temple

I'll take Jameson and coke with 50mg of thc, happy hour Friday, so I can numb the pain away from another missed KU. 

[IowaStorm05]

Some solutions unfortunately indicating an grazing blow for my region, leaving me hoping that Climo will verify and trend west. GFS looks amazing for many but too narrow and won’t give the goods this far west.

[JC-CT]

This has been a hugely successful storm

thread.

Look at all those pages!

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Start at 10" and adjust downward to 4" once the euro 

Maybe it is 2015 ptsd, but I have a bad feeling about this one. There is still time to pull the rug out on all of SNE....but in the other direction, enough time to shift them all back west. So at this point, we track...tomorrow by 12z should have a pretty good answer to these questions

[PhineasC]

Whiff then cutter is a gut punch for sure. 

[nutmegfriar]

Some of the cartoons in this thread are inane.

[George001]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you were spooked by the GFS, shield your eyes from the CMC. 

Yeah that looks really bad. Buried the energy out west even more, hopefully it comes back west at 0z.

[Hoth]

I'm just picturing Ant's cruiser up on some curb as he dashes for the nearest Krispy Kreme. Tears, tantrums and two dozen donuts later, he's back on the road and ready for 18z.

[SnoSki14]

If the southern energy phases in faster then the 12z suite depicts then you'll see dramatic shifts from run to run. 

Maybe for once luck will be on your side

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Whiff then cutter is a gut punch for sure. 

Look at the bright side, there wouldn't be any fresh snow to wash away.

[Cyclone-68]

This really IS like the KC/BUF game (back and forth) Hopefully we don’t have to wait until 13 seconds before the flakes fall to find out what’ll happen 

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm just not sure what to think. The Euro has been so steady and not budging.  The Nam followed suit ( and I will give it some attention as we're only 3 days put now ).

Now.. On the other end of the spectrum are all the other models including the GFS. My question is this, have we had a circumstance where you would have the euro and it can't be all by itself or have something like the name alongside of it, and be correct where the other models follow and it's footsteps a few days before the actual event? Does anyone have any thoughts or know of any past storms that have had this happen? I just need to keep my hope alive LOL. It's been so long since we've had a very large snow storm and this just seemed like it was going to be the one. Still hoping it is

[CoastalWx]

Ukie was west of 00z with the precip shield by a decent amount.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see nothing wrong with the GGEM.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Maybe it is 2015 ptsd, but I have a bad feeling about this one. There is still time to pull the rug out on all of SNE....but in the other direction, enough time to shift them all back west. So at this point, we track...tomorrow by 12z should have a pretty good answer to these questions

No need to sweat it but the nw trends ain't happening. Even if the s stream doesn't drag itself on the floor like a drunken tollandnite, it's not enough to offset some of the other pieces I see that aren't conducive for a WSNE KU. It's possible we can sneak into a weenie band though. 

[klw]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is the UK over Bermuda?

Mostly north of France.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you were spooked by the GFS, shield your eyes from the CMC. 

please show

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No need to sweat it but the nw trends ain't happening. Even if the s stream doesn't drag itself on the floor like a drunken tollandnite, it's not enough to offset some of the other pieces I see that aren't conducive for a WSNE KU. It's possible we can sneak into a weenie band though. 

What is your bar? You sound like you expect 2-4”.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see nothing wrong with the GGEM.

You, Tblizz, Scooter, and the SEMA gang have nothing to fear. Whether it is 16 or 30, you'll get bombed. 

[IowaStorm05]

I don’t drink whiskey during a storm. I prefer to experience those sober.

I do however occasionally drink it on one of the days leading up to it, and that day could be today. 
 

What is the difference between CMC and RDPS? These are Canadian right? I’m a pivotal guy.

I am pretty nervous… but again… climo. Seeing such a massive wallop cause Litchfield to smoke cirrus and ACK to be on the western edge of the goods seems just bizarre and rare to me. Another idea if we lose her to the east to me makes me think of the system never bombing out.

My intuition, while creeped out, still prompts me to believe this will trend slightly west tonight for 0z. 
 

I do not expect mixing problems anywhere on the cape at all, but I did not go to school for this.

[Torch Tiger]

slip slidin away.  I was afraid this would happen, especially for the western 1/2 of NE.  Unfortunate

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

please show

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You, Tblizz, Scooter, and the SEMA gang have nothing to fear. Whether it is 16 or 30, you'll get bombed. 

I'm agreeing with Will....I think some are getting spooked by the east shifts. I get it, but I think it's only Wednesday and plenty of time to see shuffles. This will shove banding way west I think of the low center.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

he can buy you a shirley temple

Get him a cranberry juice.