Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Chrisrotary12]

GFS is doubling down it seams.

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Hi Metfan?

no

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is holding back more energy. This should be more east.

 

It's hard to take the Euro seriously here since it has no support except for the Long range Nam.

"Hard to take Euro seriously" is not a hill I would want to die on!

[RI Rob]

This doesn't look good. 

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

969 would be better.  

[weatherwiz]

Obviously going to have to factor wind into this somehow (which I will admit I don't have much knowledge on) but 12z NAM bufkit is spitting out some pretty impressive ratios. I wonder have to think under the CCB ratios probably approach 18:1 with snowfall rates 3-4'' per hour...maybe upwards of 5''.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

"Hard to take Euro seriously" is not a hill I would want to die on!

Well considering how shitty it has been this year,  why not ?

[ORH_wxman]

This may get a good tug NNW at the last second though....H5 is actually curling back a little more efficiently than 06z despite the other trends.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously going to have to factor wind into this somehow (which I will admit I don't have much knowledge on) but 12z NAM bufkit is spitting out some pretty impressive ratios. I wonder have to think under the CCB ratios probably approach 18:1 with snowfall rates 3-4'' per hour...maybe upwards of 5''.

In the GFS, you maybe more like 3-4" per day lol

[PhineasC]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Obviously going to have to factor wind into this somehow (which I will admit I don't have much knowledge on) but 12z NAM bufkit is spitting out some pretty impressive ratios. I wonder have to think under the CCB ratios probably approach 18:1 with snowfall rates 3-4'' per hour...maybe upwards of 5''.

GFS says don’t worry about that stuff. 

[dryslot]

GFS made up some serious ground late but ends up a tic or two east of 06z but that's a bomb.

[RobertSul]

9 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Otherwise known as a snowstorm in winter.

Right because we always get lows in the 950s/960s going near the benchmark. 

[Sn0waddict]

Ends up in about the same position as 6z by hour 84.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This may get a good tug NNW at the last second though....H5 is actually curling back a little more efficiently than 06z despite the other trends.

Yeah may actually wind up a touch better than 6z. Great for E Mass. 

Would have preferred to see a much bigger jump west though. 

[Diggiebot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously going to have to factor wind into this somehow (which I will admit I don't have much knowledge on) but 12z NAM bufkit is spitting out some pretty impressive ratios. I wonder have to think under the CCB ratios probably approach 18:1 with snowfall rates 3-4'' per hour...maybe upwards of 5''.

I think you could see some locations pull a foot in only a few hours with this. It happened with Jan 23 2005 with the strongest bands. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the GFS, you maybe more loke 3-4" per day lol

 

Just now, PhineasC said:

GFS says don’t worry about that stuff. 

does the Euro/NAM combo rule still apply  

[RI Rob]

Last minute rally at the end.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

SFC low should not be east of the convection.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

GFS made up some serious ground late but ends up a tic or two east of 06z but that's a bomb.

well it is getting there.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

GFS made up some serious ground late but ends up a tic or two east of 06z but that's a bomb.

There's definitely things I like better about that run. Obviously the holding back in the sw is not one of them, but it also made a big jump with that from 6z. Maybe people should wait for a little continuity before leaping off the bridge.

[ariof]

NAM vs GFS are only two degrees apart at 84h.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah may actually wind up a touch better than 6z. Great for E Mass. 

Would have preferred to see a much bigger jump west though. 

What a battle....I still think Euro is Mahomes, and GFS is Allen.

RGEM is Cam Newton-

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a battle....I still think Euro is Mahomes, and GFS is Allen.

RGEM is Cam Newton-

And this storm is Jimmy Garoppolo

[Baroclinic Zone]

That looked great here.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah may actually wind up a touch better than 6z. Great for E Mass. 

Would have preferred to see a much bigger jump west though. 

Goalposts established I think. Narrowing but there is still a valid eastern option. GFS remains rather lame outside far eastern zones. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

And this storm is Jimmy Garoppolo

Nah, it looks healthy to me....the one with dual lows was Jimmy G

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah may actually wind up a touch better than 6z. Great for E Mass. 

Would have preferred to see a much bigger jump west though. 

That's super close to being a LOT better....that was probably a step toward capturing a little better despite the southern stream not trending well. Still time to sort that part out.

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

SFC low should not be east of the convection.

I’m no expert but I kinda of thought the same thing looking at it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

NAM vs GFS are only two degrees apart at 84h.

Problem is that 2 degrees equals about 20" for many

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That's super close to being a LOT better....that was probably a step toward capturing a little better despite the southern stream not trending well. Still time to sort that part out.

100% agree