Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PWMan]

"Bomb cyclone"  - everyone take a drink!

 

[ineedsnow]

GFS time!

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

this plz

[amarshall]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM hammers se Mass just west of the canal, holy smokes 

We take

[DJln491]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS time!

no whammies

[UnitedWx]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think the GFS and UK would be better for me, but I don't think it matters for you...you will have better low level lift.

I'll take it back this way! Lift and separate that moisture

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

no undies

You probably aren't the only one after the NAM run

[ROOSTA]

Some of the output running the grids is spitting out 4ft amounts in EMA running here at ROOSTA Central Command. I find it hard to believe. The clown of clown maps thus not posting. Is it possible, it's happened before so sure it's possible? I'll start believing when in mid-event.
Tough first call. Go high or go home, start at 2' (conservative) then go up from there.
  

[weatherwiz]

Certainly should have enough confidence to do an initial snowfall map after the euro today! Already prepping the blog. This is nothing more exciting  

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Already looking better at hour 24… coming west

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is dragging the southern stream through 33h compared to 06z. But northern stream looks a little better.

[PSLwx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is dragging the southern stream through 33h compared to 06z. But northern stream looks a little better.

you aren't kidding...welcome to 5 runs ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly should have enough confidence to do an initial snowfall map after the euro today! Already prepping the blog. This is nothing more exciting  

I am writing now....

[dryslot]

Good thing the northern stream is going towards that s/w in NM.

[RDRY]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

I heard the ICON runs on Lotus.

[UnitedWx]

52 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

Serving the finest weenies anywhere?

[bwt3650]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Let the hype begin.

 

Otherwise known as a snowstorm in winter.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good thing the northern stream is going towards that s/w in NM.

the streams are definitely phased better

[UnitedWx]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

Don't you mean the ICON Commodore 64?

[TalcottWx]

It's okay if it ticks a little east. Put deform over 128. Sounds good. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is holding back more energy. This should be more east.

 

It's hard to take the Euro seriously here since it has no support except for the Long range Nam.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am writing now....

same!

just have to fill in some blanks after the full 12z suite (which for me is NAM, GFS, Euro...I don't care about any of these other models which I know is bad on my part). I already have an idea for snow map but given the magnitude I don't want to put it to paper yet until all 12z but I am certainly thinking 18-24'' for at least CT River East. 

Can't really do much with banding/subsidence until probably Friday. 

[Sn0waddict]

Don’t worry guys the ICON is back up and running.

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is holding back more energy. This should be more east.

 

It's hard to take the Euro seriously here since it has no support except for the Long range Nam.

Canadian is a bit east of the Euro but it is a lot farther west than the Gfs. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Don’t worry guys the ICON is back up and running.

Burn it!

[RDRY]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Let the hype begin.

 

Well, now I'm expecting flurries and calm winds.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Burn it!

Hi Metfan?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is an amazing run...it is still absolutely hammering over NE at 84h too...that stall spot is pretty ideal.

Sure is!  It's basically impeccable in that regard, +1 

I mean we've seen damn close to impeccable placements in the past.  They're like.. 92, 95th %tile and so forth.  But this?  It's 99 or for lack of better phrasing, it's over the threshold where it really matters. We could probably dink that in situ, and still come up way over climo for coastal snows. 

If that were not enough the "+1" addition is that in those other cases, they were not 966 mb lows! wtf ...That absolutely astounding.

I was just looking at that relays of the 500 mb with the 300 mb, and if anything, the QPF may be too skimpy out near Orange Ma to Brian axis.. I think the hidden best call about this whole week's worth of guidance ob surfing, is that this has so much upside potential. These runs occasionally dip into the well - we get a 18" of snow, that is for all intents and purposes, still "blizzarding" at the end of the run. I don't see much evidence in this NAM solution that this thing is tapering off right away after that...Looking aloft, that's going to collocate and take propably another 6 to 9 hours end that.  That's probably good for another 8"...

I dunno...

[RI Rob]

Ehhhhhhhhhh