Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I am fine getting 6 if it ends up being historic overall

That would be even worse IMHO....it ends up historic for a huge area and you're one of the few screw zones that get 6". But hopefully that doesn't happen anyway....a NAM-esque solution would be pretty ridiuclous for most of the forum. The Cape peeps would get screwed a bit, but very few elsewhere.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't think the QPF is being underdone on modeling with this.  This will drop 1-3" when all said and done for most.

Southern origins with a semi warm-core and huge fetch.  This has the makings of a historic storm.

[George001]

 

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

this is true but it is supported by the Euro, and even if reality is like 50 miles east of this it would still be a huge storm with a 2 ft+ jackpot.

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This will drop 1-3" when all said and done for most.

I think you may be slightly conservative.

[Hoth]

If only this wasn't the NAM.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

I think you may be slightly conservative.

How so?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would be even worse IMHO....it ends up historic for a huge area and you're one of the few screw zones that get 6". But hopefully that doesn't happen anyway....a NAM-esque solution would be pretty ridiuclous for most of the forum. The Cape peeps would get screwed a bit, but very few elsewhere.

The biggies always have surprises, both good and bad. Sometimes it's a boom heavy band that drops a lot of powder way west in the fringe zone, sometimes it's an unexpected change to sleet, sometimes it's a persistent dry slot that is way off of where it was modeled.

Another classic is the heavy rates never materialize as modeled and you just spit for hours.

Hopefully the models at least come into agreement on track today so we can start quibbling over that stuff.

[rnaude241]

I am hoping this stays a tic east to keep Plymouth on the cool side. No rain please for once!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The biggies always have surprises, both good and bad. Sometimes it's a boom heavy band that drops a lot of powder way west in the fringe zone, sometimes it's an unexpected change to sleet, sometimes it's a persistent dry slot that is way off of where it was modeled.

Another classic is the heavy rates never materialize as modeled and you just spit for hours.

Hopefully the models at least come into agreement on track today so we can start quibbling over that stuff.

Somebody will get into a subby zone.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM ticked slightly east.

[Sn0waddict]

RGEM is not gonna pull a NAM unfortunately. Looks similar to 6z

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Greg said:

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

I understand what you are saying about the QPF bias, but its incumbent on the forecaster/hobbyists to utilize discretion in determining when a bias may or may not be at play....because automatically assuming that is the case, regardless of the circumstances, is also a bias in and of itself. In this case, we have an exotically deepening system of SOUTHERN STREAM origin availing of N  Stream insert over the gulf stream. If that isn't enough to tip the scales in favor of more QPF, the EURO supports it 100%.

You need to be careful about utilizing defense mechanisms under the guise of recognition of a model's perceived "bias" to suite the interests of your back yard.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, rnaude241 said:

I am hoping this stays a tic east to keep Plymouth on the cool side. No rain please for once!

Ultimately, I think it will. Overall look for days now has been east. I don't expect some sudden shift to running over land aside from maybe a rogue NAM run.

GFS will come west part of the way to the Euro and NAM will do its usual wobbling.

 

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

How so?

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Somebody will get into a subby zone.

Me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't think the QPF is being underdone on modeling with this.  This will drop 1-3" when all said and done for most.

Southern origins with a semi warm-core and huge fetch.  This has the makings of a historic storm.

This.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM ticked slightly east.

Just as valid a solution as the NAM at 84 hours. Reminds me of the GFS look. Two camps here for sure.

[Zeus]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

I believe he may have been suggesting one to three inches of liquid equivalent precipitation.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

this is true but it is supported by the Euro, and even if reality is like 50 miles east of this it would still be a huge storm with a 2 ft+ jackpot.

Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

1-3" of QPF is a shit ton of snow.

[NorEastermass128]

Loop de loop. We crush. 

[NeonPeon]

Just now, Zeus said:

I believe he may have been suggesting one to three inches of liquid equivalent precipitation.

Ah. I was just teasing anyway. I thought he meant 1-3', which would be plausible at that amount of liquid with good cold and perhaps not too much wind aloft in the interior?

[PhineasC]

Just now, Greg said:

Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.

It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL

[Spanks45]

NAM has me in the single digits at hr 84 with heavy snow still falling, already 16-20 inches have fallen....sign me up, but in reality it is the NAM....not worried about the RGEM yet, it has had a rough few years outside of light freezing rain event this year

[Sn0waddict]

I think our favorite weather model the ICON is broken. It’s been stuck at hr 12 for a while now.

[NorEastermass128]

FEET. 
 

I need to go grab a yard stick. My 15” ruler probably won’t cut it. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

NAM has me in the single digits at hr 84 with heavy snow still falling, already 16-20 inches have fallen....sign me up, but in reality it is the NAM....not worried about the RGEM yet, it has had a rough few years outside of light freezing rain event this year

GGEM has been jumpy too, going back and forth between the GFS and Euro looks each cycle.

[weatherwiz]

QPF will absolutely NOT be underdone with this. I mean this inflow is ridiculous

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

I think our favorite weather model the ICON is broken. It’s been stuck at hr 12 for a while now.

Let's hope permanently.

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL

And you're immune to this how, exactly?

You're someone on the interior joyfully hoping that the cape rains so that you get your snow. Tale as old as time. Well, not really, since the advent of publicly consumable computer modeling, anyway.