Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[jbenedet]

Oooof.

 

[PhineasC]

Anyway, great start to 12z.

And no, I don't want to hear about some obscure model with upside down maps that went east @MJO812. Let's stick to varsity and JV models at least.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM will probably have a run that goes even further west....but it's going to be hard to get much more given the trough position.

My thoughts as well.  It is still the NAM

[RDRY]

Trough now slightly negative at 75 on the NAM. Useful.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My thoughts as well.  It is still the NAM

Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.

[CCHurricane]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Lol - changes to rain here. Ideally, Euro is only 80/90% correct and moves slightly east. 

People will see and latch on to what they want to see, I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM at 84hrs out. Fun to look at, but in any other circumstance everyone would agree that the 12km NAM is essentially worthless.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output.

I think people are just in the habit of adding that caveat as a defense mechanism.

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.

What would a great event be without a nammy run like that?  This is why we're here.  At least me

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output.

Hopefully NAM has one of it's rare lock-in moments and just ups the ante from here.

I would expect a random 06z/18z run where it burps and suddenly slides east or cuts precip in half. That always happens for some reason.

[Whineminster]

Posters slowly unbuttoning their pants

[hooralph]

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output.

We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.

[IowaStorm05]

9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tonight I'm going to have myself a real good time.

 

 

And a good time I think it will be indeed.

We are approximately 60 hours from Go time and the east trends seem to be pulling back a bit. 
 

When it’s this big and New York office is excited about it… that’s good news.

And my mom and I are obsessive Queen fans.

[PhineasC]

NAM has some nerves on edge in the far eastern zones. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, hooralph said:

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

Epic idea.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

[Zeus]

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

I'll have your finest scotch in my usual engraved stein, sir, and a round your skunkiest beer for all of my friends here.

[JC-CT]

pffffffff

I see that we got our NAM stupid run. another box to check off the list

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Anyway, great start to 12z.

And no, I don't want to hear about some obscure model with upside down maps that went east @MJO812. Let's stick to varsity and JV models at least.

 

[JB_Wchstr]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

Some people get bent out of shape when the model run doesn’t show them taking the whole game lol. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, PhineasC said:

NAM has some nerves on edge in the far eastern zones. 

You mean those on CC?  Warranted given their geography.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM has some nerves on edge in the far eastern zones. 

well not willing to change to rain so you can go from 6-10 to 8-14

[klw]

After a 10 minute search through here to figure out the acronym LBSW, I think I understand.  For those "in the know" can you confirm that it refers to a storm which has "peaked" to the southwest vs LBNE in which the storm "peaks" to the NE?  Thus a LBSW has peaked to the SW and is past its height once it gets here.

Thanks in advance

[Greg]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

If you don't like the NAM output, just toss it.

Hopefully you will soon need to toss the GFS for the same problem here shortly.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

A crusher here. It also closes off the mid levels early... that's great for NJ and NYC too. 

Ha, it might just save my wilting attitude toward this - I cried about needing 12zs to get with the program and see? That all it takes.  LOL

But it is the NAM... oy. 

I tell ya what though, to me, I almost wonder if the NAM's NW bias stuff is maybe transcended ( for lack of better word) by the total power of this thing. I mean, that 500 mb evolution ( either side of 66 hours ) seems that regardless of the former tendency this thing would have to really end up like that either way - it's just overwhelming matters in that sense.

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output.

I think people are just in the habit of adding that caveat as a defense mechanism.

It will provide some pretty different solutions over the next 48 hours.  
I hope I’m wrong 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially if Easton isn't within the area that gets hammered-

I am fine getting 6 if it ends up being historic overall

[Chrisrotary12]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is an amazing run...it is still absolutely hammering over NE at 84h too...that stall spot is pretty ideal.

That NAM run is a thing of beauty. 2' for nearly everyone with a 966 low about to spin itself on MVY for a little bit.