Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Hoth]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think the deformation would still get pretty far west even in the east camp

I agree. Some of those western camp lows probably deform eastern PA.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JayinRI said:

better than TWC.

Anyone is better than TWC.

[dryslot]

Just got done looking at the overnight runs, Yes this is a big storm, Yes there's going to be some decent accumulations for some here, But, The euro and i guess i would throw in the GGEM in there are the ones showing something historical, The others really are not and i'm sure there's going to be some rug pulling somewhere before its all said and done, Going to want to see other guidance start to look more like the euro from here on out, Regression is probably the worse thing you could see now as we are starting to get into the zone where models are not going to be making big changes, So carry on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JayinRI said:

I love reading about weather,  you guys are great, better than TWC. My question is here in rhode island what kind of snow would this be, the wet heavy or light fluffy snow. I am inland, coventry right near 95. Thanks

Powder

[JayinRI]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Powder

Thanks

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, JayinRI said:

I love reading about weather,  you guys are great, better than TWC. My question is here in rhode island what kind of snow would this be, the wet heavy or light fluffy snow. I am inland, coventry right near 95. Thanks

Unless this comes way west, it's going be a powdery snow there

[Baroclinic Zone]

Steady as she goes from my perspective.  Not much else to add that hasn't already been said overnight.  12z runs today should be good to start narrowing goalposts. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Most are looking at the surface off the east coast, but the trend at H5 on the GFS is fantastic, with the trough orientation trending negative, sooner and better alignment/phasing between northern and southern streams. I say keep this trend going and worry much less about UL heights off the east coast in a situation such as this where there is no blocking. Guidance notoriously under-amplifies UL heights downstream of a potent shortwave. I’ll take that risk any day over UL trough orientation/position. The latter is much more important at this stage.

Getting caught up.  I'm still back here on pg 146.   Not a bad analysis on your part, but re the bold statement above:

I agree, that is crucial leading parametric as this approaches the EC en masse.  But, that could be enhanced(reduced) based upon the S/stream contribution as it fuses with the descending N/stream goodies.  

Euro has more

GFS has less

Now that may be so that the model 'notoriously' do the less?   However,  One aspect that comes to mind for me ( or back to mind and was forgotten - ), is this propensity in most guidance now spanning years, to consummately correct systems from the intensity side of the spectrum toward less, when relaying mid range handling toward inner times.  So, that seems to be a competing concept to that bold statement. 

And admittedly ... it is anecdotal, but it's a frustratingly glaring persistent tendency/ is a repeating observation for me.  

This thing really cannot afford to get weaker, or it will collapse to those means that are too at sea at this point. It's an scenario where, as we get closer, it seem the only way to get this storm is to have the handful of members that are very intense and west, win. 

I noticed the Euro shaved 6 mb off all positions, some depth in the 500 mb deepest ... but no one mentioned that, because the snow QPF seems to be a distraction?  But, this could be a beginning of it going E.  I've seen it do this before, where it offers a model cycle where it's "attitude" gets torpid first, then it reshuffles.   

If more s/w ridge is rolling out ahead, it tends to cap early convection ferocity ahead of the q-v forcing ... The impetus being, if that flares off hugely right away, and the flow is flattish leaving the coast, it will rip NE out E of the 70 W longitude and stress the baroclinic field... limiting/robbing cyclogenesis back closer to said trough forcing.  That is what the GFS operational has been designing.  Folks ( not you ..) need to realize, a deeper, robuster cyclogen closer to the actual synoptic forcing, not relying on the volatile air and simpler triggers first ..., has physical height falls associated. That action feeds back constructively on the total manifold of the system. That's what the Euro's been suggesting.. .but, it has also been shaving 4-6 mb off the intensity since that mega run of 24/36 hours ago. Which is a sign that it is slipping some of that efficiency - at some point... it might break.

Just trying to be fair and objective.  

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I want one of those anecdotal Pilgrim-era BECSs.

People were short then. Therefore, snow to thy knickers doesn't mean as much.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I agree. Some of those western camp lows probably deform eastern PA.

This.
 

2/13 was downgraded big time for us the morning of, then the band came west, and it was history. Blown forecast the day of for the local stations. Ya don’t know where that will set up? But it’s usually further west than it shows. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Meso features at our latitude are almost never sniffed out by the global models, especially at D3.

[JC-CT]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When did you turn into MPM? You are in a prime location .

I'm just being realistic. I generally don't agree with the concept of throwing out ensemble clusters you don't like unless they are way outside the spread of the global OP runs over several cycles. I wasn't seeing any major clustering on the EPS that I was comfortable completely tossing. So I said as much, to someone who posted something to the effect of doing that.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This.
 

2/13 was downgraded big time for us the morning of, then the band came west, and it was history. Blown forecast the day of for the local stations. Ya don’t know where that will set up? But it’s usually further west than it shows. 

The Meteorologist I was working with at the time and I had totally different views about the forecast even around early afternoon that storm a few hours before the peak.  He ended up lowering the forecast, to 12-18".  I ended up being on shift from 7pm to 7am and we ended up with 20-40" lol

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM will come west I think based on 42h...more southern stream and the northern stream is coming in a bit steeper.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I agree. Some of those western camp lows probably deform eastern PA.

With that east inflow progged there will be heavy snow bands back to Logan11 in E NY. He’ll have 10” at one elevation and 18” at the other.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM will come west I think based on 42h...more southern stream and the northern stream is coming in a bit steeper.

Nice first sign with respect to 12z.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The Meteorologist I was working with at the time and I had totally different views about the forecast even around early afternoon that storm a few hours before the peak.  He ended up lowering the forecast, to 12-18".  I ended up being on shift from 7pm to 7am and we ended up with 20-40" lol

Yes…this is what I was alluding too. Exactly. 

[Sn0waddict]

One individual SREF plume model gives me 30.27 inches of snow. The mean may only be 6 inches but I’m gonna ride with that one individual member.

[SJonesWX]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just got done looking at the overnight runs, Yes this is a big storm, Yes there's going to be some decent accumulations for some here, But, The euro and i guess i would throw in the GGEM in there are the ones showing something historical, The others really are not and i'm sure there's going to be some rug pulling somewhere before its all said and done, Going to want to see other guidance start to look more like the euro from here on out, Regression is probably the worse thing you could see now as we are starting to get into the zone where models are not going to be making big changes, So carry on.

not feeling this one for up here. A couple days ago there was lots of mention of Boxing day as an analog, and if that's the case, well, I guess i will enjoy my 6"

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

not feeling this one for up here. A couple days ago there was lots of mention of Boxing day as an analog, and if that's the case, well, I guess i will enjoy my 6"

I'll take the over on 6" there.

[The Graupler]

I think the forthcoming 12z and 18z models will be paramount to deciding whether the storm misses  except for SNE, or a mamouth storm. We will need an end to the easterly trends, see continuous phasing to be supported, and we’ll need to capture the upper end scenarios to have a shot at this

[Winter Wizard]

Have to think NAM will nudge back to the west based on NS/SS interaction at hour 42. 
 

[PhineasC]

Just now, The Graupler said:

 

I think the forthcoming 12z and 18z models will be paramount to deciding whether the storm misses  except for SNE, or a mamouth storm. We will need an end to the easterly trends, see continuous phasing to be supported, and we’ll need to capture the upper end scenarios to have a shot at this

Hopefully 12z rides the low right over BOS into the GOM.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Hopefully 12z rides the low right over BOS into the GOM.

Right over the graupler would be ideal really.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

NAM could possibly be west of the 6z GFS. More phasing.

[JC-CT]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM will come west I think based on 42h...more southern stream and the northern stream is coming in a bit steeper.

do you think we start to see some waa precip beef up on the models as we get closer? seems like with the biggies, that was always something we looked out for

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

Right over the graupler would be ideal really.

That works too. I just want this baby hitting some land.

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

That works too. I just want this baby hitting some land.

Bermuda?

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Bermuda?

Seems more likely at this point. Or Nova Scotia.

[George001]

Yeah the nam looks like it’s ejecting more energy out west.