Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

GFS/CMC both have a later occlusion, but the latter does not have CFI and doesn't try to collapse the ridge.

i see the same thing tip does. it's been bad on the GFS, not great on the euro, and atrocious on the NAM

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am rooting for the GEM.

GEFs got more precipitation west compared to 18z so that’s good I guess. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFs got more precipitation west compared to 18z so that’s good I guess. 

I do not buy the GFS and UK total escapes in the least.

[George001]

The GFS sucks, Euro has been outperforming it all year. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am rooting for the GEM.

I think we all are.   It's time has come.

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's not unheard of for the GFS to be a little northern stream dominant.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

CMC and GFS close the h5 low off in the same vicinity. There was no reason why the surface should be as vastly different as it is.

But I'll defer to the mets here.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's not unheard of for the GFS to be a little northern stream dominant.

Yes… Well aware. 

Unfortunately those “subtle” variances are utterly crucial and make for huge difference with a storm that has this kind of power.  It doesn’t appear to be a proportional relationship either, just looking at this from orbit. If the GFS is 10% inefficient we seem to get really big difference in the northwest position blah blah feedback physical processes 

[PhineasC]

GFS east, UKMET well-east (I think). CMC amped up and west. Euro will probably hold serve. 

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am rooting for the GEM.

Absolutely, for most of New England interests

Was just about to post... compare 0z NAM vs. GGEM at 84h... NAM much further southwest and ready to capture and dump on DE/NJ/NYC area 

[Thunderblizzard]

UKMET is pretty far east.

[George001]

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

CMC and GFS close the h5 low off in the same vicinity. There was no reason why the surface should be as vastly different as it is.

Those are important differences between those two guidance at 90 hours quite significant actually in terms of how they’re going to drive the surface. The CMC closes the 500mb sfc off at around 90 hours overlapping Long Island… GFS’s is still wide open at that point

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think we all are.   It's time has come.

A great solution for east but not as stellar for wor. It’s good to see it in between euro and gfs at least.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yes, that would work.  I don't care if E MA doubles my totals, I just want a foot of snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

I get the impression that we only have a consensus on a significant to major storm but we don’t have a consensus on position… That’s about it good night

[Rjay]

[PhineasC]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yes, that would work.  I don't care if E MA doubles my totals, I just want a foot of snow.

I really hope it’s right and the Euro backs it up here shortly. It was a gorgeous run for basically everyone. Glad to see a more hug solution is still an option after so many offshore runs. 

[Rjay]

[PhineasC]

UKMET doing typical UKMET stuff. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A great solution for east but not as stellar for wor. It’s good to see it in between euro and gfs at least.

Sampling gets much better tomorrow.  A track over Buzzards Bay is still on the table.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Rjay said:

How befitting of winter 21/22

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The melts would be legend.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

UKMET doing typical UKMET stuff. 

Ukmet is a terrible model for east coast storms 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yes, that would work.  I don't care if E MA doubles my totals, I just want a foot of snow.

Koochie always looks better but h7 was a little too east to my liking. The trajectory is great though so there’s room to tick it left some. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukmet is a terrible model for east coast storms 

Not to often you hear "Ukie nailed it"

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

UKMET doing typical UKMET stuff. 

It nailed the block over Svalbard though. 2nd best model

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukmet is a terrible model for east coast storms 

What's your excuse gonna be when Euro shifts east tonight.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not to often you hear "Ukie nailed it"

Might be great in the UK but not here

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

What's your excuse gonna be when Euro shifts east tonight.

So the Ukie has been good ? Your trolling is ridiculous.