Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

It's certainly a long way to go in model land.  The over confidence in a solution develops in these systems that are tracked from Day 7-10.  Does the jackpot zone remain the same for the final 4 days of model runs?  That's hard to do, but the biggies sometimes follow the consistent pattern.  It's hard to tell how this plays out.

One of the reasons the biggies follow a consistent pattern is because they are so big...so the margin for error from a great event to a complete disaster is reduced.

[cut]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There are a good amount of eps members that get you guys good up there. 
 

E35 and 36 work for our area.

[MJO812]

Nam is going to be big again. Energy is ejecting more.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm getting big again. Soon I'll be ejecting more.

bro

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I was trying to make the point an hour ago that I was getting comfortable enough with the GFS/ECMWF model "consensus" for it to be honking time and I got absolutely raked over the coals by dryslot because he didn't like how the GFS drifted east and gave him less snow than the Euro  

Your wrong, You were extrapolating the end result, And you were proven it by another met and some others of what our interpretation was, You don't agree then fine, That what these thread are for,  I don't know how can you come to a consensus being 3 days out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's certainly a long way to go in model land.  The over confidence in a solution develops in these systems that are tracked from Day 7-10 when you have seen days of runs (but yet it's still days away).  Does the jackpot zone remain the same for the final 4 days of model runs?  That's hard to do, but the biggies sometimes follow the consistent pattern.  It's hard to tell how this plays out.

Yup. And Two weeks ago models were fairly consistent from d5 in bringing the low up thru EPA lol. Can we get that same performance here?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One of the reasons the biggies follow a consistent pattern is because they are so big...so the margin for error from a great event to a complete disaster is reduced.

It's true.  When the 6-8"+ zone is so big, places can afford movement and still get a healthy snow.  Maybe the jackpot and higher level amounts shift around, but there's a large swath of impactful snows... so its moving into a territory where many folks can rest assured of at least a solid snowstorm even if it falls apart in one direction or another.

[msg112469]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Wasn't that a zonked run of the Canadian? Maybe yesterday?

Ok. Cool. Thanks!

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Your wrong, And you were proven it by another met and some others of what our interpretation was, You don't agree then fine, That what these thread are for,  I don't know how can you come to a consensus being 3 days out

Well there's no such thing as a consensus. Ever. Not even at hour 0.

But I thought we all understood that it's a subjective term...that consensus for a big event for the area the storm had reached by the time the model finished its run is not the same as having every exact detail figured out when those details will jump around for days to come...especially when 2 runs ago, the GFS was close to a complete whiff of the entire subforum.

But I was wrong, we didn't all understand that. Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is going to be big again. Energy is ejecting more.

Wait until you get married.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, cut said:

E35 and 36 work for our area.

Whatever tickles you. There is something there for everyone. 

[tavwtby]

it's been quite a while since I've seen more than 16" imby, would be great to see a complete region wide 12-24+ storm, those that are also talked about, like 78, 93,96, PD1&2, etc. I think the last big one for the whole forum might have been 15? correct me if I'm wrong, and wor folks only got like 12-18 while east was tickling 3' iirc

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wait until you get married.

Or less.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Or less.

Yea, that was my sarcasm. “Energy is ejecting more”…then he got married, she gone.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Starting 0z tonight the stakes get higher with each model run, I can't wait to watch the weenie, psyche, sh^t show the next 48 hours.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ok back to business, my bad. Some of this stuff is too easy though and it’s hard for this clown to contain himself. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Well there's no such thing as a consensus. Ever. Not even at hour 0.

But I thought we all understood that it's a subjective term...that consensus for a big event for the area the storm had reached by the time the model finished its run is not the same as having every exact detail figured out when those details will jump around for days to come...especially when 2 runs ago, the GFS was close to a complete whiff of the entire subforum.

But I was wrong, we didn't all understand that. Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

Fair enough.

[tiger_deF]

NAM is notably West with with low at h72

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

NAM is notably West with with low at h69

The NAM should entertain with some bonkers solutions as we get closer.   I

[CT Valley Dryslot]

18z GFS for comparison. It's so obviously chasing the convection.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Fair enough.

Ty, all I was looking for. Sorry I was less sensitive to the outcome for other areas of the subforum besides my own than I could have been.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

it's been quite a while since I've seen more than 16" imby, would be great to see a complete region wide 12-24+ storm, those that are also talked about, like 78, 93,96, PD1&2, etc. I think the last big one for the whole forum might have been 15? correct me if I'm wrong, and wor folks only got like 12-18 while east was tickling 3' iirc

Last regionwide one was probably feb13. Jan15 shafted WOR big time, especially in MA and NWCT

[George001]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is going to be big again. Energy is ejecting more.

Yep, the more energy that ejects the better. If the models that eject more energy are right, the low will be stronger and farther west, leading to increased snow and winds. This would result in a monster blizzard.

[CT Rain]

The NAM would be fun. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The NAM would be fun. 

$100 to say that exact phrase on air

[CT Rain]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The NAM would be fun. 

It's also quite slow compared to the Euro.... and has slowed down from 18z.

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whatever tickles you. There is something there for everyone. 

That's for sure.  e40 would have everyone 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Last regionwide one was probably feb13. Jan15 shafted WOR big time, especially in MA and NWCT

Please stop bringing that storm up.  TIA.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That’s a classic KU on the NAM