Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

Steady march SE on EPS precip maps last several cycles up here. A major event is slipping away for NNH.

Hopefully I can still pull 6-10 from the easterly flow piece and a few inches of fluff on top with NW flow.

 

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey no snow stealing by wind there Mr.

 

Lol

Refresh my memory, which event a few years back had the westward charging hellacious band with TS+++ / Mix precio+++?  That one had an incredible snow drift to it... while the band was east of me by several miles, I had S+++ but the radar was empty over my area...   

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Damn.  That's like 16-18" on the mean.

The population affected is massive there.  I mean 15 million people easy in that axis?  I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The population affected is massive there.  I mean 15 million people easy in that axis?  I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.

Yeah, when you add LI, NJ, NYC and down to DE, that's a substantial area to be impacted.  Big runs starting tonight.

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thanks for those 18z EPS images.    Losing the members that were over SNE now.  Now only confined to extreme SE MA.

About as good as we can ask for eastern SNE... a tic southeast compared to 12z, high density near BM and then looks like it tracks NNE... and most members are 960s-970s

[Jt17]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The population affected is massive there.  I mean 15 million people easy in that axis?  I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.

NYC metro area is 20+mil people on it's own lol

[CT Valley Dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The population affected is massive there.  I mean 15 million people easy in that axis?  I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.

More like 40 million.

30M in the Tri-State.

Another 3M for CT

1.5M for RI

5M for MA

 

Even more if you include Philly and Philly metro.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Steady march SE on EPS precip maps last several cycles up here. A major event is slipping away for NNH.

Hopefully I can still pull 6-10 from the easterly flow piece and a few inches of fluff on top with NW flow.

 

It's like barely affecting the region on the NAM right now at 84hr...lots of time to go. I wasn't progged to get 34" 3 days out last December. That "southern" s/w is still up in the Yukon right now.

[Go Kart Mozart]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For those asking

Wow, quite the cluster near the Jersey shore.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I want a storm, windy and something falling from sky.  I don't like the east solutions because it excludes people on this forum from someting :/

Same here. East is great for just the east. I wish there was a solution that would crush everyone but we’re too big geographically for that to happen, though not entirely impossible.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's like barely affecting the region on the NAM right now at 84hr...lots of time to go. I wasn't progged to get 34" 3 days out last December. That "southern" s/w is still up in the Yukon right now.

It's close enough to keep interest up, but the evolution seems to have changed for up here. The storm now drifts pretty much ENE after getting to SNE. Earlier runs drove it more northerly. The NAM will save me.  

[WxFreak11]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For those asking

Just WOW!!

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, cut said:

Mid trend as in moving a bit westward correct?

I haven’t been paying attention to that specifically.  In this situation I don’t have a lot of faith in the mid.  I think there’s probably a data sampling issue going on and those intervals are going to be suspect first

[Damage In Tolland]

Eps is 1-2’ + from BOS to NYC. Just about every poster in SNE 

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I haven’t been paying attention to that specifically.  In this situation I don’t have a lot of faith in the mid.  I think there’s probably a data sampling issue going on and those intervals are going to be suspect first

Upcoming runs will be telling think when compared to 12 z today. Curious about how the NAM presents the evolution as we close in under 84 hours. Also where GFS and EURO go after their 12z today. Will it be 1 step back and two forward or a “slip sliding away” run.

[78Blizzard]

I take it that the RECON data will begin getting ingested starting with the 0z runs tomorrow night?

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I take it that the RECON data will begin getting ingested starting with the 0z runs tomorrow night?

They'll be available for the 27.00z models. I think they are more in support of atmospheric river research, because if they were truly about improving modeling for the East Coast storm they'd be seeding the sondes farther north.

[mimillman]

Greetings from Chicago, folks. Tomorrow night I’ll be making the commitment, but if models are similar tomorrow, I’m on a flight to Boston Thursday night to join you. Not letting this one go.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Eps is 1-2’ + from BOS to NYC. Just about every poster in SNE 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, mimillman said:

Greetings from Chicago, folks. Tomorrow night I’ll be making the commitment, but if models are similar tomorrow, I’m on a flight to Boston Thursday night to join you. Not letting this one go.

Good luck and bring it with you. 

[RobertSul]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Greetings from Chicago, folks. Tomorrow night I’ll be making the commitment, but if models are similar tomorrow, I’m on a flight to Boston Thursday night to join you. Not letting this one go.

Yeah, I’m doing the same thing from Michigan! Hope our flights won’t be in vain…

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

More like 40 million.

30M in the Tri-State.

Another 3M for CT

1.5M for RI

5M for MA

 

Even more if you include Philly and Philly metro.

Thanks guys! I (obviously) don't know population numbers that well, but damn.  That's an incredible amount of people. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Greetings from Chicago, folks. Tomorrow night I’ll be making the commitment, but if models are similar tomorrow, I’m on a flight to Boston Thursday night to join you. Not letting this one go.

Trying again!  This time smartly a day ahead to avoid cancellations.  Welcome to our insane asylum!

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's close enough to keep interest up, but the evolution seems to have changed for up here. The storm now drifts pretty much ENE after getting to SNE. Earlier runs drove it more northerly. The NAM will save me.  

That's what I've taken away from it in the North Country too.  The axis has become more WSW to ENE instead of SSW to NNE directions.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

That's what I've taken away from it in the North Country too.  The axis has become more WSW to ENE instead of SSW to NNE directions.

Each model run has been adjusting to that so far as i see the slp track slipping a few degrees in that direction, That's not going to cut it for places NW away from the coast up here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's what I've taken away from it in the North Country too.  The axis has become more WSW to ENE instead of SSW to NNE directions.

There are a good amount of eps members that get you guys good up there. 
 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks to me the strike zone is still fairly wide. I wouldn’t spike it or head to the locker room just yet. 

[JC-CT]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can almost visualize the 850 getting captured just below BID and looping.  IDK man, honking time. Damn

I was trying to make the point an hour ago that I was getting comfortable enough with the GFS/ECMWF model "consensus" for it to be honking time and I got absolutely raked over the coals by dryslot because he didn't like how the GFS drifted east and gave him less snow than the Euro  

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There are a good amount of eps members that get you guys good up there. 
 

It's certainly a long way to go in model land.  The over confidence in a solution develops in these systems that are tracked from Day 7-10 when you have seen days of runs (but yet it's still days away).  Does the jackpot zone remain the same for the final 4 days of model runs?  That's hard to do, but the biggies sometimes follow the consistent pattern.  It's hard to tell how this plays out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I was trying to make the point an hour ago that I was getting comfortable enough with the GFS/ECMWF model "consensus" for it to be honking time and I got absolutely raked over the coals by dryslot because he didn't like how the GFS drifted east and gave him less snow than the Euro  

That intervening 13 minutes were critical