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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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monadnocks

monadnocks

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, LSC97wxnut said:

From a school / business standpoint for the NE Corridor, it's good this is a Friday afternoon to Saturday night deal.

Imagine the headache it would cause if the snow was starting now on a Tuesday afternoon?

There are still events that will be re-scheduled: school games, for instance.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Would seem the 18z EPS is a little farther SW compared to the 12z, but this is effectively just a 6 hour slowing of the system. Mean QPF is similar, unless you live on the Maine coast. :bag:

Yeah seems slower. I think the op run was too.

More along track spread/changes from 12z than a shift east or west.

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

image.thumb.png.3dcb38d8a417c5c3a3a7d873657c54c3.png

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours.  Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass.  Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley.   I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to f**k up a storm thread with political crap. 
 

Now proceed to your regularly scheduled programming. 

Shit what did I miss?

 

The 18Z Euro 850 vorticity loop is about a beautiful depiction as you will see. 

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours.  Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass.  Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley.   I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies. 

Hey no snow stealing by wind there Mr.

 

Lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours.  Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass.  Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley.   I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies. 

Definitely using more for eye candy but also just trying to illustrate and hammer in a few (negative) things to keep in mind and watch for as we get closer and it's time to talk potential snowfall totals. 

But I totally agree with everything you said. Forecasting exactly any banding where set up and traverse is not going to be easy and that's going to be dictated by several different factors. I actually also believe the main band will end up farther west. I think I touched upon this in a post earlier this morning or afternoon but I can see a scenario where the main bands becomes established well northwest of where models are indicating now...and this is a result of the mid-level centers developing and initially being elongated. However, as the storm rapidly organizes and the centers tighten, you'll see the main band quickly collapse southeast closer to the centers. Then from here it's a matter of does the band sit and does it have the potential to pivot? 

I also think we will see a secondary band form...which tends to be the case in these stronger systems. This is something which may initially favor some subsidence between the two bands but getting into what you were saying, the strong easterly inflow may help fill this in a bit or maybe the two bands converge. 

But I can absolutely see the main band being much farther west than what's advertised now 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours.  Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass.  Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley.   I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies. 

Speaking my language sir. Wiz, one more blasphemous post like that and I’ll have to report you. 

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