Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Well when you do a comparison on similarities upstream Wouldn't you be basing on that same result downstream?

my head hurts way too much to try to understand this

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

my head hurts way too much to try to understand this

Not hard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

As expected. It will be a LBRF when we get inside 48hr.

[HalloweenGale]

It's going to be loud as hell Saturday.

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

At least at 90h vs 96h it's a smidge NW on this run than the previous run at the surface. 

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As expected. It will be a LBRF when we get inside 48hr.

LBRF?

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close 

ya know, i don't really want to do this right now, but it's starting to annoy me.

if you think this is "not even close" for 90 hours out concerning a major extratropical cyclone then all the more power to you

[brooklynwx99]

500mb on the ECMWF is much more backed with SE-ly flow, while the GFS remains rather progressive despite the great moves aloft

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

LBRF?

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

[weatherwiz]

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

LOL just a bit out of hand..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

Oh wow, that’s not really a visual I needed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Was selfishly hoping euro would be even more tucked then 12z for the sole purpose that when it does it eventually slide east, we built enough wiggle for it.

[CoastalWx]

For shits and giggles, BUFKIT at PYM and HYA is   

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

500mb on the ECMWF is much more backed with SE-ly flow, while the GFS remains rather progressive despite the great moves aloft

That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

ya know, i don't really want to do this right now, but it's starting to annoy me.

if you think this is "not even close" for 90 hours out concerning a major subtropical cyclone then all the more power to you

Look at how the heights curl back on the Euro vs the GFS. It's subtle but would lead to a more amplified SLP and a little bit closer to coast than the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

Too early for that stuff.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

yeah...noise. check next cycle, they will probably both be at least that different.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

A 30mi jog west is still possible.

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

He ninja'd me.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

Well, the CRV people are always mentally prepared for these scenarios.

Doesn’t mean I won’t bitch but I expect Dave, 30mi E of me in Hubbardston to get 15”+ while I get 4-5” of sand. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Look at how the heights curl back on the Euro vs the GFS. It's subtle but would lead to a more amplified SLP and a little bit closer to coast than the GFS.

I was looking at a more macro view of the overall setup they've settled into. not trying to resolve differences between them that neither model has resolved itself anyway.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too early for that stuff.

In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea. 

I know what you mean, but so many variables right now. But if you are just playing around like I was with BUFKIT, weenie away.

[JC-CT]

2 cycles ago we were worried that a complete whiff was still in play, and now you want to argue that those two runs "aren't even close" to each other. gtfoh

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

At least at 90h vs 96h it's a smidge NW on this run than the previous run at the surface. 

Yeah that’s interesting even though H5 looked slightly less zonked. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I told you. Climate change is causing an increase in monumental blockbusters over the entirety of New England, commingling with the occasional winter without 1 inch of snow on Nantucket.

Nantucket has had some monster snows over the years, your so hot to trot on the south coast/Islands getting shut out as a phenomenon related to climate change. Never know, maybe this one winds up being ACKs next 2 footer

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

A 30mi jog west is still possible.

 

 

It’s not just placement of the frontogenesis that screws the valley.  Hours of Easterly fetch tend to be underwhelming unless you are above 800’ elevation. 

[CoastalWx]

 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s interesting even though H5 looked slightly less zonked. 

The whole thing looked a smidge slower too. Maybe an hour or two slower with the H5 evolution?