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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Yeah.

I got perma-banned from it last year for seemingly no reason.

ha, nice. yeah I poked around the first year or so but the guy is very angry. I popped in like 2 or 3 days ago to see what the mood was there and they were all ready to jump off a bridge.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

Its the mechanics and evolution of this type of storm that can possibly cause a several hour stall/slow down. No, its not a given however we aren't in a particularly fast flow right now 

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7 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

it's going to stall and loop as the system occludes. could be east of nj or east of maine

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Just now, JC-CT said:

what would be a good h5 analog?

Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

i do see boxing day showing up on cips repeatedly

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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These runs all look good here. I was totally whiffed by the 06z gfs. I want to avoid that. Not expecting 2 feet here. 

All we ask for is a participation trophy.

I’d take 3-6” and run. 12z EURO was the best, others get crushed but if we could snag 6-10” of mid-level goodies then that’s awesome.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

That was a grazer for eastern areas....funny, we narrowly missed a biggie there and I remember being kind of pissed, but then a week later we got payback.

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29 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

I agree. When I disputed your point the other day, all I meant was that guidance would over correct in that direction, before ultimately coming back and closing later...however, I fully expected some of these runs to close it off very quickly, and the most likely candidate is always the EURO in my experience.

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is the only one closing this off with rapid H5 deepening that early and southwest...I don't think #2 is off the table whatsoever.

I absolutely agree that the EURO is too fast and far SW with closing off as it stands now. but I just don't want it to trend too much before correcting. But you are right....that  is probably not off of the table. The CF I feel is...I understand why some don't want it discussed yet, blah , blah, but its my opinion.

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