Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully folks will be as jovial come thursday.

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nah. We go back further.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

This one seems displaced east for some reason

I would be homicidal with that outcome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm is a winner when a screw zone nets 20"

Interesting how the qpf is a tick west of 0z but the evolution looked a bit east. Waiting for Ginxy's 850 inflow maps....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Pretty good, though I'm sure our friends in Philly and DC may beg to differ on that one. Though the NESIS scale may be imperfect, it's helpful to have some sort of metric that takes a more objective look at a storm. For my own studies, I've put together a ranked criteria to provide context for the real magnitude and impact of a given winter storm:

1. Did I, personally, get a lot of snow?
2. Was I awake for most of it?
3. Did people in areas increasingly at risk of being snow-starved in light of climate change get brutally shafted after having their hopes inflated by prior guidance?
4. Wind

very funny, but I meant for the new england subforum. Although PF and maybe some cape cod friends may beg to differ, it's really, really hard to croak SEMA and northern VT in the same storm.

[CoastalWx]

EPS is sick.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS is sick.

covid?

[JoeSnowBOS]

This storm is coming and it’s certainly a eastern New England special , just a matter if it’s a big hit for western area or not.   It’s coming though.  If it ends up OTS, that’s a complete model suite fail and we should just stop looking at models this far out.  Buckle up - it’s coming eastern New England 

[WeatherWilly]

Don't worry, it was vaccinated.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WeatherWilly said:

Don't worry, it was vaccinated.

so bill gates is responsible for this storm, got it

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I remember as a kid watching Don Kent drawing L's and H's and Dr Joe Sobel on the local AM radio station talking about "prodigious snowfall" for big storms.

 

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I remember as a kid watching Don Kent drawing L's and H's and Dr Joe Sobel on the local AM radio station talking about "prodigious snowfall" for big storms.

...and both were better than any current Boston TV/radio met....

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is sick.

[George001]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Now why wouldn't the entire forum pull for this solution? Maybe a hair east to get the cape in the game.

 

Yeah this looks great. Widespread 20+, it appears the Euro ejects more energy out of the southwest, where as the other models hold more energy back. The more energy that ejects, the higher the ceiling so hopefully we see the other models trend in the right direction with that.

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A tic or 2 west on the 12z EPS from 06z.

Tic toc

[forkyfork]

2015 this ain't. i didn't draw the lines so don't get mad at me

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

You might want to re-read many of your posts in the off topic forums....

[MJO812]

Euro ensembles are insane west of the BM

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Tic toc

it's not a good trend for you tbh. it's ticking west because it's closing off earlier. but again, it's simply following the OP at this range.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro ensembles are insane west of the BM

Everyone saying it, nobody showing it.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

Fifth  … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ?

when did that come up and why/how?

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

it's not a good trend for you tbh. it's ticking west because it's closing off earlier. but again, it's simply following the OP at this range.

These runs all look good here. I was totally whiffed by the 06z gfs. I want to avoid that. Not expecting 2 feet here. 

[LSC97wxnut]

From a school / business standpoint for the NE Corridor, it's good this is a Friday afternoon to Saturday night deal.

Imagine the headache it would cause if the snow was starting now on a Tuesday afternoon?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

2015 this ain't. i didn't draw the lines so don't get mad at me

That looks like one of Josh's arrows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Everyone saying it, nobody showing it.

We’re still cleaning up the mess we made on and around our screens..will post shortly. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re still cleaning up the mess we made on and around our screens..will post shortly. 

Maybe buy a bulk pack of wipeys. More secretions on deck.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LSC97wxnut said:

From a school / business standpoint for the NE Corridor, it's good this is a Friday afternoon to Saturday night deal.

Imagine the headache it would cause if the snow was starting now on a Tuesday afternoon?

Well the way things are now nearly everything would be closed...

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

These runs all look good here. I was totally whiffed by the 06z gfs. I want to avoid that. Not expecting 2 feet here. 

fair. 6z sucked for everyone

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

That looks like one of Josh's arrows.

is that the guy who started the nyc weenie board?

[WeatherWilly]

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable.