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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro has pretty much all of SNE with 925mb winds greater than 75 kts Saturday afternoon. 925s what...1500 ft up?

925wh.us_ne.png

About 2,500 feet.

That is insane. Dendrites will be ripped to shreddies. Going to have to keep this in mind when making snowfall forecasts and ratios. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

All valid points.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, probably closest one in recent memory was Jan 2018?

Pretty good, though I'm sure our friends in Philly and DC may beg to differ on that one. Though the NESIS scale may be imperfect, it's helpful to have some sort of metric that takes a more objective look at a storm. For my own studies, I've put together a ranked criteria to provide context for the real magnitude and impact of a given winter storm:

  1. Did I, personally, get a lot of snow?
  2. Was I awake for most of it?
  3. Did people in areas increasingly at risk of being snow-starved in light of climate change get brutally shafted after having their hopes inflated by prior guidance?
  4. Wind
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bwt3650

bwt3650

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you wait the whole local forecast just to see that one panel show snow.  Then I’d go back to Sportscenter for Stuart Scott (RIP) before leaving for school lol.  I think many of us snow weenies in the late ‘80s and ‘90s rolled that way between TWC and ESPN :lol:.

Ah, yes.  And the alert tones with the red scrolling screen like the soviets were attacking…you knew sh!t was getting real!

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