Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hope the convective blob is not as strong and you get the ULL to close off sooner(stronger), 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:00 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: He’s always been ...bad Expand Just want to remind everyone these guys do check this place out every once in awhile. Just figured I'd mention. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:01 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Clothes on or off? Expand Yeah let us know I am already kind of ashamed of myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:54 PM, JC-CT said: Lol every map on this board does the Tolland split. So cruel. Yeah, a Walmart. Expand Moving so fast you have to double quote to troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:04 PM, JC-CT said: What did that end up doing Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:14 PM, Sn0waddict said: HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me. Expand I hear yah. Been watching it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:12 PM, dryslot said: Who's call is it at the WFO? Expand Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Check the Satellite forecast from Analysis at hour 0 to hour 1 on the HRRR... very fishy. Clearly not initializing properly. I would upload if these servers weren't too feeble to support files of reasonable size 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:44 PM, OceanStWx said: Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Most difficult forecast I have ever observed in multiple decades of following winter weather. Anyway, here is my view on the impending Blizzard (hopefully, maybe) of '22. For in depth look at why this forecast is so excruciatingly, if the event that you have a rather keen interest in watching paint try, have read for a glimpse into my rationale. Otherwise, should be firing up around midnight from south to north, and going (hopefully) strong throughout the day tomorrow before winding down Saturday evening. If this comes together as is should/could, it has the potential to deposit snowfall rivaling that of the Blizzard of 1978, however, confidence in an outcome of that magnitude is tempered by some odd phenomenon going on offshore (see blog). Infrastructure is likely to be paralyzed tomorrow, unless I am somewhat delusional, which is a possibility. Now time to sleep for about 12 hours- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../blizzard-of... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 No Double Low on the HRRR here on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalpoleJoe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just listened to Kevin L on Fox 25 after Harv again did not back off...Kevin said he expects some locations may get 30+ inches, just not sure where....these Boston mets aren't dumb, they see something....hopefully they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 One thing to note: 23" is daily high snowfall record at BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:14 PM, Sn0waddict said: HRRR has been coming back west the past two runs. Could just be noise but 22z looks better than 18z in terms of low placement to me. Expand All afternoon it’s moving to the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:13 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Just want to remind everyone these guys do check this place out every once in awhile. Just figured I'd mention. Expand Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 What is Harvey calling for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:34 PM, Cmass495 said: Harvey: "This is a classic, this is a classic .... even in Worcester I can see 18-24." Expand At his age and experience, Harvey just has no f*cks left to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:15 PM, OceanStWx said: Expand Didn’t like York or Ogunquit put up a 24 burger in that? Like 10 miles away had 5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 RAP still looks great on its 22z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is Harvey calling for Expand 24+ inside 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:16 PM, wkd said: I liked Tip's post saying that the dual lows at this point is just a reflection of computer algorithms. I believe there have been a lot of comments saying it looks unrealistic. This storm's evolution should be a test of the model's capability in the relative short term. Over the years there have been numerous times the models have shown the "chasing the convection scenario". It would be interesting to know the statistics on the ultimate outcome. Expand Well thank you but .. I didn't really say 'algorithms' haha. Okay though - I simpler terms,..the models' convection parameters might be to "too smart for their own good". They're sensitive, and the region astride the EC is a powderkeg at rest state ... pretty much at all times. It may ( metaphorically) overwhelm the models, such that they get carried away - faux convection. This is an area of physics that is a little different that tracking a S/W, and propagating them through a field. All the models can really do is set up instability - budgeting where convection fires gets down closer to chaos. They can't really predict that, and the convection we have been seeing, what they are using to developing the dual/triple lows, may not exist in reality... I mean there will be convection out there, but the models are creating it, and relying on the created mass to direct their results... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Harvey is probably new englands most experienced met… comforting for him to be not backing down 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:25 PM, weathafella said: 24+ inside 495 Expand Holy Shiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I do think leading up to these storms the NWS/TV have a hard time sort of resetting when there's a trend toward a bust or more caution flags as the event nears. Ramping up is easy but no one wants to back down. After all the trends today this does not look like the same storm I was expecting when I went today... but you wouldn't know that from watching TV or reading that BOX AFD. I could definitely be wrong but there are far more caution flags right now than things that make me super stoked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is Harvey calling for Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Harvey seems really confident but keep in mind he’s forecasting for the easiest area and with the mid levels the Boston area should get pummeled regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:24 PM, hooralph said: At his age and experience, Harvey just has no f*cks left to give. Expand He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Save us, Euro. Even in extreme eastern mass, I’m not feeling too great right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:16 PM, OceanStWx said: Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast. Expand You or eckster working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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