Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Chrisrotary12]

Running to the store to buy a bottle of jack so that I am prepared either way: happily celebrate 2’ or drown my sorrows over 10”.

Anybody need anything?

[RI Rob]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:22 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Running to the store to buy a bottle of jack so that I am prepared either way: happily celebrate 2’ or drown my sorrows over 10”.

Anybody need anything?

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An edible please.

[mattm4242]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:20 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv is still bullish.  No changes to his map

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I trust Harvey. Also because I want him to be right.

[Roger Smith]

It took a brave soul to write that outlook, even as harsh a snow-fanatic as myself would likely have gone with a more subdued tone after seeing all this meh guidance. Still, it could be like the 1970s and the outcome is nothing like the guidance at all. Sometimes the crudeness of the early generation models is overstated, they weren't that bad, but I do remember one or two cases where reality was quite a surprise compared to any 12-24 hour model output, for example, Jan 26 1978. If that happens here, basically 30-40 years of technological development will mean butkus. 

My toned down prediction would be 12-24 inches east of a CON-ORH-PVD-ACK 12" contour, max near Taunton MA. Maybe 15" in parts of se CT and LI here and there. Probably about 7" on average in w CT to central MA. 

Hoping reality gives me a kick in the butkus. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:20 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv is still bullish.  No changes to his map

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Not shook.

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:22 PM, RI Rob said:

An edible please.

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Can’t. Company tests for those.

[klw]

  On 1/28/2022 at 9:50 PM, klw said:

Q- are the models properly equipped to use the additional data collected from the recon flights if they are not usually part of the input?

Just curious.

Thanks, I will hang up and take my answer off the air..

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Any thoughts?

[skierinvermont]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:07 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Mets don't answer to the models. They answer to science. The science must lead them to believe something else.

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The models are the science. Nobody looks at a satellite image and says it will snow two feet tomorrow at a precise location. The models tell us that the mid level features might get strung out and shunted east more than previously thought.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:05 PM, PhineasC said:

Hanging by a NAM thread. If Euro bumps east seems safe to say the huge totals are probably off the table. 

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Ya think? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Most difficult call I have ever seen

[USCG RS]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:23 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can’t. Company tests for those.

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This is why I work for myself. 

[ORH_wxman]

Reminds me a little of the disconnect between sensible wx output and the upper air in the 2/15/15 storm. The model guidance was shoving this massive WCB out east and up into Maine (where blizzard warnings busted iirc) and being paltry over SNE despite obscene height falls south of MVY/ACK

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 9:48 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Final call. We kept our original forecast pretty much the same with amounts just tilted the axis of snowfall a bit to orient it more SW to NE. Tri-state area stayed very similar with the 12-20" range extending farther west across long island.

CT:

Tri-state:

CT warnings:

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Yet both still managed to split Tolland in half . I wish you guys were familiar with this area. It doesn’t happen like that lol. But it’s a good map IMO

[78Blizzard]

21z RAP cut way back from 20z, lol.

[mostman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most difficult call I have ever seen

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A cirrus-30 map would guarantee accuracy. 

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:24 PM, skierinvermont said:

The models are the science. Nobody looks at a satellite image and says it will snow two feet tomorrow. The models tell us that the mid level features might get strung out and shunted east more than previously thought.

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Models aren’t perfect as they are programmed by humans.

[skierinvermont]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:26 PM, bristolri_wx said:

Models aren’t perfect as they are programmed by humans.

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But they are the best we've got. At least until now cast radar time.

[PhineasC]

When’s the last time a Twitter radar hallucination was right? Not being sarcastic, I really want to know. You know, for science. LOL

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:20 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv is still bullish.  No changes to his map

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This is huge honestly. 

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me a little of the disconnect between sensible wx output and the upper air in the 2/15/15 storm. The model guidance was shoving this massive WCB out east and up into Maine (where blizzard warnings busted iirc) and being paltry over SNE despite obscene height falls south of MVY/ACK

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For those of us who don’t remember individual storms….how’d that go? I assume good since it was 2015.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most difficult call I have ever seen

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I recall the same uncertainty a day out from the 78 blizzard, and back then they didn't have the luxury of these models. 

[BostonWX]

Negative overreaction here is telling, now expecting a bump nw as we approach go time  . Central and eastern areas still looking good for 15 to 25. There’s a reason 30 spots are historic…

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Is bet dollars to donuts the EC goes east at 18z. All the guidance has except really the NAM which started out east but recovered late. 

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  On 1/28/2022 at 10:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It will definitely be ripping tomorrow…but the key is do we lose some of that WCB injection. That is the difference between like a 15” storm over metrowest and a 25”+ storm. 

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Have you or will you if you haven’t issue a call for SNE? 

[NeonPeon]

  On 1/28/2022 at 9:55 PM, EastonSN+ said:

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RI forcefield letting the team down. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is honest question.. in storms like this.. shouldn’t past big boys similar in scope be factored in quite a bit vs just looking at models and calling them trash and then lowering numbers ? To me .. H7 and H5 and experience tell me to stay the course 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me a little of the disconnect between sensible wx output and the upper air in the 2/15/15 storm. The model guidance was shoving this massive WCB out east and up into Maine (where blizzard warnings busted iirc) and being paltry over SNE despite obscene height falls south of MVY/ACK

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  On 1/28/2022 at 10:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

For those of us who don’t remember individual storms….how’d that go? I assume good since it was 2015.

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No.

About as classic a going down with the ship forecast as there ever was. PWM ended up with 2 inches after a blizzard warning was hoisted to Sugarloaf.

I think like 5 or 6 of our warnings verified out of 33. 

[RI Rob]

All I can say is this is the first time I've really looked at model runs myself as they've come in over the past 4 days or so and now my brain is a pile of mush. I don't know how you all do this for each storm!

[TalcottWx]

Just listened to Harvey not even a peep about backing down. 

[andyhb]

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

[Cmass495]

Harvey: "This is a classic, this is a classic .... even in Worcester I can see 18-24."