Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I love the enthusiasm... but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.

I mean, maybe at this point they're just settling on one forecast and waiting until tomorrow during the event to make changes.

You can't make changes every model cycle. It will confuse the public.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean I would hit that 700 low in a heartbeat. The GFS has all the best QPF east of its track. 

I'm tossing that run to Georges Bank with its surface low.

I’m sure you saw my post to Ryan with the coupled jet maps. It is so bizarre to me. This isn’t even like Jan 7th when the forcing mayb have wanted the afc low further west but it was kind of meh for strength so convection could overcome it…this time, it’s a monster coupled jet with big dPVA. 

[PhineasC]

Remember when this was a deep nuke low near the Cape? LOL

What a piece of shit it looks like now. 

[wx_observer]

18 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED
 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD
 CONDITIONS.
* SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN
 MA AND RI.
* IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO
 HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY
 COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING.   

DETAILS...

HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...

MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO
IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB
PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S
CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24
HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM
GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT.

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES   
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.   
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST   
BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS 

OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN   
THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE   
SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS   
HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST,
OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI.

STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...  

WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE   
NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND   
GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI,
INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 
CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE
IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT.

POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS,
WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND
CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW
OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE
UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO
END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE 
SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL
COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT
THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.

That’s about as strongly worded as I’ve seen in a forecast discussion

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, mostman said:

Inside 12 hours until formation and BOX is straight up tossing the models. Bold. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. 

Mets don't answer to the models. They answer to science. The science must lead them to believe something else.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hanging by a NAM thread. If Euro bumps east seems safe to say the huge totals are probably off the table. 

Is bet dollars to donuts the EC goes east at 18z. All the guidance has except really the NAM which started out east but recovered late. 

[PWMan]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

As I get crustier I'm more convinced than ever that we (NWS) shouldn't entertain 24+ in our forecasts until we see the whites in the eyes of a band. It gets forecasts into trouble more often than not. 

We always seem to chase the peak runs in the 48-24 hour window and inevitably have to back off inside that in most areas. 

I think the last 72 hours at least have been pretty consistent from an ensemble perspective, despite what individual members/models had.

And as you posted earlier, with a windy storm like this it will be virtually impossible for most of the public to accurately gauge total snowfall amounts anyway. At least in eastern areas, it seems like public messaging is unchanged: it's going to snow and blow, it will pile up in some places, and people shouldn't be out driving in it.

[78Blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED
 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD
 CONDITIONS.
* SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN
 MA AND RI.
* IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO
 HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY
 COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING.   

DETAILS...

HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...

MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO
IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB
PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S
CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24
HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM
GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT.

WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES   
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.   
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST   
BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS 

OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN   
THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE-
LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP
COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE   
SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS   
HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST,
OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI.

STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...  

WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE   
NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND   
GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER
INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI,
INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 
CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER
LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE
IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT.

POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS,
WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND
CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE LIKELY.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW
OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE
UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO
END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE 
SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL
COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT
THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.

You would never know that's the official outlook by reading some on this board, lol.  Even the clown maps could be understating "ratios 20-25 to 1".  

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m sure you saw my post to Ryan with the coupled jet maps. It is so bizarre to me. This isn’t even like Jan 7th when the forcing mayb have wanted the afc low further west but it was kind of meh for strength so convection could overcome it…this time, it’s a monster coupled jet with big dPVA. 

Maybe that is what his is looking at.  I mean how is it looking in terms of what is actually happening?

[mostman]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Mets don't answer to the models. They answer to science. The science must lead them to believe something else.

Right. I get it, but can you remember a storm where there was such a stark dichotomy between the model consensus and the NWS inside this timeframe? I can’t. And that AFD was all in. 

[Spaizzo]

Well this was an odd sight… are the seagulls on to something? 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Mets don't answer to the models. They answer to science. The science must lead them to believe something else.

Eh…sometimes you have to listen to the models when you’re inside 24hr and all of these runs from models with slightly different physics and parameterizations show the same basic idea.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

At first I only looked at 5H and 7H on gfs, went thru the track , strength and lift and was like this still looks good for E mass out to 495 at least 

I think this will unfortunately be strung out and not a consolidated beast since every model shows this and I would weight they over stubborn hopium ...but it is still gonna have a nice heavy band Over a good chunk of Eastern SNE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Mets don't answer to the models. They answer to science. The science must lead them to believe something else.

All afternoon, Mets and knowledgeable weenies here,  have been discussing how the upper air depictions on the models, seem contrary to the surface depictions.  A "now-casting" we shall go.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

Well this was an odd sight… are the seagulls on to something? 

Yeah…lots of yummy junk food in a walmart parking lot.

[CT Rain]

Just now, dendrite said:

Eh…sometimes you have to listen to the models when you’re inside 24hr and all of these runs from models with slightly different physics and parameterizations show the same basic idea.

Yeah it's not like it's just the 3km NAM and the ARW chasing the convection offshore and everything else is big. The Euro, GFS, etc are trending toward trash. 

[Spaizzo]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…lots of yummy junk food in a walmart parking lot.

Ha! If there was a McDonald’s  im grasping at straws here for a good storm in CT

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

At first I only looked at 5H and 7H on gfs, went thru the track , strength and lift and was like this still looks good for E mass out to 495 at least 

I think this will unfortunately be strung out and not a consolidated beast but it is still gonna have a nice heavy band Over a good chunk of SNE

It will definitely be ripping tomorrow…but the key is do we lose some of that WCB injection. That is the difference between like a 15” storm over metrowest and a 25”+ storm. 

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, mostman said:

Inside 12 hours until formation and BOX is straight up tossing the models. Bold. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. 

Actually, it quoted the NAM in its discussion as being accurate at this time frame with major systems.

[SouthCoastMA]

If you go back 2 days..GFS has been pretty consistent. Never really bit on the huge tucked in solutions

[MJO812]

 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh…sometimes you have to listen to the models when you’re inside 24hr and all of these runs from models with slightly different physics and parameterizations show the same basic idea.

True.  Then we have a problem if we can't predict what a major storm is going to do that affects approximately 58 million people within 12 hours of it starting.

[wkd]

I liked Tip's post saying that the dual lows at this point is just a reflection of computer algorithms.  I believe there have been a lot of comments saying it looks unrealistic.  This storm's evolution should be a test of the model's capability in the relative short term.  Over the years there have been numerous times the models have shown the  "chasing the convection scenario".  It would be interesting to know the statistics on the ultimate outcome. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh…sometimes you have to listen to the models when you’re inside 24hr and all of these runs from models with slightly different physics and parameterizations show the same basic idea.

Yeah...

I think I'm pretty good, but I can't computer all this environmental info in my head. I have to base it on something. And right now I don't see a lot of evidence for high confidence historic storm. Locally? Maybe. But to do historic at the 4 major climate sites you need at least 17 at BDL and PVD to be in the top 10 2 day snowfalls, and 22 at ORH and BOS.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

I liked Tip's post saying that the dual lows at this point is just a reflection of computer algorithms.  I believe there have been a lot of comments saying it looks unrealistic.  This storm's evolution should be a test of the model's capability in the relative short term.  Over the years there have been numerous times the models have shown the  "chasing the convection scenario".  It would be interesting to know the statistics on the ultimate outcome. 

Yeah, I think the outcome of this will be an interesting case study

[Chrisrotary12]

Wait….that AFD was real?

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay...I'm changing the title of this thread...

Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted pain in the balls storm, no longer a matter of confidence - it's happening: 30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides for everyone yet no where

I don't know what's more epic. This would-be storm, or the pain in my balls.  Supposed to be tomorrow... just one day, and the models are still fumbling around humping any possible tedious nuance in order to not know what is happening.  All these advances in the technology ... might as well be 1980

EXACTLY!!!!

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will definitely be ripping tomorrow…but the key is do we lose some of that WCB injection. That is the difference between like a 15” storm over metrowest and a 25”+ storm. 

That's the biggest red flag I see right now. Everything has come in ripping that east, and not just surface precip either but 700 mb f-gen/omega too.

[Northof78]

When was the last time we had a northeaster off the coast with a dual structure like that?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Harv is still bullish.  No changes to his map