Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Those are based on soundings though aren't they?  They can't take in the impact of wind.

Not seeing the obsession with wind. I mean it just crushed wind in many of our blizzards with feet and high ratios.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, wxsniss said:

HREF 12z fwiw (sorry if posted earlier), looks almost identical to NWS map:

Yeah every Box snow map is a straight Rip n read from the Href

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP has been improving since 18z....hopefully its onto something.....HRRR has been getting worse.

 

Glad there's good short term model agreement on the trends.

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

Probably already changed since you posted this so check again.  

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

HRRR for +1 at 14z vs HRRR for +1 now at 20z

cosmic dildo taking form and pointing our way

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah every Box snow map is a straight Rip n read from the Href

I didn't realize that... is that just observation or their actual protocol?

[EastonSN+]

[JC-CT]

Just now, wxsniss said:

I didn't realize that... is that just observation or their actual protocol?

@OceanStWx could answer...I think it's at least one of the sources they can pull into their grid

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually latest 20z HRRR took a nice jump west tomorrow AM...more consolidated low. So maybe there's a trend there with the RAP we can work with?

Part of me is like eff it, and sort of go with a lean on one low. Maybe not those exotic NAM and Euro solutions, but I feel like the models went too wild with that. You would think synoptics would rule. One caveat, this is faster now...maybe owing to that late capture. 

[SouthCoastMA]

18z+Recap thus far

Absolute Shite : ICON/RGEM

OK 3K NAM/HRRR

Excellent: 12K NAM/RAP

[MJO812]

The low is developing off the southeast coast. If you follow the trajectory, the low should go inside the BM. The stupid ocean low pulls the low and dances with each other. 

Let's hope that's wrong.

[JKEisMan]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah every Box snow map is a straight Rip n read from the Href

How accurate is the Href -- I know Ryan likes to use it.

Are there any examples of it having a huge fail?

[Roger Smith]

In the Navy

there's a blizzard for you all,

in the navy

there's snow back to Montreal,

in the navy,

it's like 1982

in the navy,

everyone is wearing blue. 

[Briz600]

I think you just have to nowcast this thing. Models are struggling with the placement of the lows.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of me is like eff it, and sort of go with a lean on one low. Maybe not those exotic NAM and Euro solutions, but I feel like the models went too wild with that. You would think synoptics would rule. One caveat, this is faster now...maybe owing to that late capture. 

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

18z+Recap thus far

Absolute Shite : ICON/RGEM/HRRR

OK 3K NAM

Excellent: 12K NAM/RAP

When did a foot plus for everyone inside 495 become shit? 

Gotta manage expectations a bit.

[bristolri_wx]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Never implied that was me 

I'm thanking all veterans. 

[snowman21]

Nice job by Ryan explaining all of the complexities with the forecast.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

When did a foot plus for everyone inside 495 become shit? 

Gotta manage expectations a bit.

You're right..I fixed it to go in the OK category.  It's obviously weighted by previous expectations a bit. 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I didn't realize that... is that just observation or their actual protocol?

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

When did a foot plus for everyone inside 495 become shit? 

Gotta manage expectations a bit.

we've been told a blizzard with at least 18-24, if not 24-36" is coming, so yes 12" would be shyt.

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah my gut says we see a bit of a trend to consolidate the low again somewhere near or just S of the Islands...or maybe just E of CHH....I'm a little skeptical of those solutions where it doesn't do it until its over George's Bank when you have this ridiculous upper air support several hundred miles southwest of that.

Yeah I agree with this. The jet stream evolution just screams a crusher for most of SNE but that convection over the Gulf Stream wants to screw us. 

Seems like this is just going to wind up being a weird evolution overall.. and it has definitely sped up a lot.

[klw]

There is always the BTV local 4km WRF:

Mostly SE as well

https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

They should probably be using the RAP. According to Kevin, it’s “very good” in the biggies 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Nice job by Ryan explaining all of the complexities with the forecast.

Appreciate it. Seems like there's still quite a bit of uncertainty here.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

In the Navy

there's a blizzard for you all,

in the navy

there's snow back to Montreal,

in the navy,

it's like 1982

in the navy,

everyone is wearing blue. 

 Village People in a blizzard?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Appreciate it. Seems like there's still quite a bit of uncertainty here.

What’s 12” or 30” between friends?

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants.

It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts. 

Lol thanks that's what I assumed but didn't know if I had missed something

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, snowman21 said:

Nice job by Ryan explaining all of the complexities with the forecast.

Yea. My wife couldn't care less about the weather but she watches. Kind of creepy though, I think she has a crush on him. So I hope the snow monster never swings thru Southbury, she'd suddenly be interested in snow and hop in for a 'joy ride'. Sure...ok. 

[JayinRI]

soooo....i didnt waste my money for a new snowblower is what everyone is saying