Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He and JB are weenies

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He seems solid. He never forecasted a foot in NYC and hasn't really wavered at all. Of course, I'm biased because I grew up on his stuff 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:19 PM, CT Rain said:

The 18z HRRR is so far southeast with these double barrel lows near the convection. It's a really really odd evolution.

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jumps at hr3 and just follows the whole time.. I think we will know with a few hours if places are screwed or not

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:22 PM, dryslot said:

If you couldn't already tell, Many started after 0z runs last night.

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Too many people going ballz deep on models giving them uber snow totals.

[CoastalWx]

It then combined them into an orgy ENE of the Cape. That is so weird, I have never seen that.

[DomNH]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:23 PM, msg112469 said:

I'm sorry. You're right. It was the Euro, but you get the idea. It's common for snow totals to come down as you get closer to game time on large events! You should know that since I've seen you on this forum for the better part of a decade. 

The reason I posted this time around is because of the magnitude of what was possible. 

 

It doesn't look like we'll get 4 feet. We'll likely get 2 feet in the Boston area and I'm OK with that.

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My point was no model was spitting out 40''. Only weenie maps with weenie snow algorithms were printing that. 

[CT Rain]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:22 PM, Sn0waddict said:

It gives Long Island 2 feet of snow surprisingly.

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Yes - I actually feel better about the south coast. Seems like everything wants to close up and track a bit SE. I think LI and coastal CT could do very well.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:20 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FINAL CALL:

Im not confident in this at all, I’m hedging we get an ever so slight tick back west. Think 2 foot amounts may be hard to come by. Sharp cutoff west of ginxy 

 

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2-5” out here?  
Do not taunt the hippy.  
Hippy get angry and smash.

[metagraphica]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:21 PM, CT Rain said:

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

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Given the strength of the 500 low and the position of the 700 low wouldn't the heaviest precip be north and west of the 700 low?  These panels show some of the heavy precip south of it.  Seems strange to me.

[TalcottWx]

Toss weird evolution. 

[Greg]

I was going to say something positive that I saw but don't really want to start an arguement.

[CT Rain]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

It then combined them into an orgy ENE of the Cape. That is so weird, I have never seen that.

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It's a super bizarre evolution. Like the HRRR has a nasty 500mb dry slot over Providence and Boston with the SLP center way outside of the benchmark. This one is going to look very very weird I think.

[wxsniss]

  On 1/28/2022 at 5:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Its running away with this....check your SLP map at 24 hours and it's right where I circled H5:

 

 

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Just catching up, seems I was blissfully away from guidance all morning.

At quick glance, don't have any grand insights except to say that the circled vorticity associated with the runaway SLP was even more prominent at 0z Euro. Weird, and suggests this is a highly sensitive and close pivot in outcome. Maybe an issue of how much the energy rounding trough can dominate. H5 maps tell us this should track closer, but all guidance trends tell us otherwise. Stressful forecast for the periphery. Sounds cliche, but we nowcast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:03 PM, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

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Terrible and erratic performance this close in.

[George001]

I don’t know if this means anything, but there is a 1010mb low off the coast of florida right now, and the 12z euro didn’t take the low down to 1010mb until 7pm (6 hours after it ran). Could this mean the low is deepening more than expected?

[Cold Miser]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

It then combined them into an orgy ENE of the Cape. That is so weird, I have never seen that.

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Global warming.

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:27 PM, Greg said:

I was going to say something positive that I saw but don't really want to start an arguement.

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We are all friendly in here. Post what you want.

Also, FU… :-)

[Roger Smith]

  On 1/28/2022 at 6:33 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

I will bet anyone In here things improve at 18z

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Sure, in PEI snow fans are delirious. 

[subdude]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:20 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FINAL CALL:

Im not confident in this at all, I’m hedging we get an ever so slight tick back west. Think 2 foot amounts may be hard to come by. Sharp cutoff west of ginxy 

 

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10" would be an over performer for me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:23 PM, JC-CT said:

I really believe I'm just fine. I do think it's slipping away for some people.

You're right, I did walk away with 15" on 1/7. But most people didn't come close to that, and so it was a lonely 15". I'd much rather not jack but enjoy the social satisfaction of general euphoria when everyone is getting in on a biggie, than jack on a storm where there are more have-nots than haves.

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So do you believe River east is fine too? Asking for friends 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

It then combined them into an orgy ENE of the Cape. That is so weird, I have never seen that.

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You've never seen an orgy on the cape?...lies. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:09 PM, subdude said:

This place will be lit tonight. 

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[Damage In Tolland]

Meanwhile the most reliable close in close in model the RAP keeps looking great 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:25 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Too many people going ballz deep on models giving them uber snow totals.

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would be best for everyone to never look at the NAM, but the change on the Euro at 12z, after two really consistent runs at 0z and 6z and given how close in we are, has to hurt for many.

[Cold Miser]

...I'm good with some snow, and hopefully enough to snow shoe a bit in the woods...Just before we mild up and rain next week, and the shade closing conversation turns to Tulips and (EF0)Tornados. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Terrible and erratic performance this close in.

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Every model has been awful

[Cyclone-68]

 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:21 PM, CT Rain said:

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

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You think it'll correct self and go back to where it was last night or will it also correct itself out to see more?

[RobertSul]

  On 1/28/2022 at 5:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stepped away for some work and the train wreck came as expected, right on time. The euro just might finish it and send everyone outside of EMAATT off the bridge. 

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I flew here for this storm. All I ask is if people are jumping off bridges, let me go first. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

So do you believe River east is fine too? Asking for friends 

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Every weather forecast has an underlying level of uncertainty - anyone who says otherwise is clueless to the basic premise. I think even east of the River, a southeast to northwest gradient is likely. We will probably get into good banding, but I'd expect Steve to do better than us. But predicting the location of the best banding in a major coastal within 15 miles is one of the harder aspects of winter forecasting...probably right below predicting ptype in marginal setups.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/28/2022 at 7:27 PM, wxsniss said:

Just catching up, seems I was blissfully away from guidance all morning.

At quick glance, don't have any grand insights except to say that the circled vorticity associated with the runaway SLP was even more prominent at 0z Euro. Weird, and suggests this is a highly sensitive and close pivot in outcome. Maybe an issue of how much the energy rounding trough can dominate. H5 maps tell us this should track closer, but all guidance trends tell us otherwise. Stressful forecast for the periphery. Sounds cliche, but we nowcast. 

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It's my feeling as well.  It's a battle of what energy will be able to dominate, thus pulling/pushing the SLP and associated MLs.  It's definitely a nowcast as models won't be able to resolve out in time.  Right now it's making the difference between a great snowstorm vs memorable one.