Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:20 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Semantics look at 7h Holy death bands. Modeling cannot handle those 3 to 5 inch bands. We know full well,the roar as they approach is well before the snow. All is said and done modeling wise. Noise and something to talk about. Game time, warmup suits put away home game uniforms on. 

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There’s way way too much over analyzing and worrying. A beast is coming 

[JC-CT]

I like the NAM model a lot. It comes out so fast!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:21 PM, dendrite said:

That's a congrats for Ray/SE NH/dryslot.

Although sometimes these things have surprises. I just like to be close to the real goods on modeling and then let it play out. Sometimes I get a Dec 20 and sometimes I get scraped with frozen sugar.

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  On 1/28/2022 at 2:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems to create a minima around CT (we know that must be wrong), before the energy jumps east and consolidates again...

1) Is that real..

2) Is the timing correct..

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Exactly....who knows if the timing on that is correct.,,if it trends later, then its just congrats ME...if sooner, then CT

[FXWX]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well it doesn't last....even on this NAM run it gets yanked back down to south of MVY....I think the biggest issue is the timing of it. I'm trying to think of any high-end storms that had something similar....2015 started to become very briefly elongated before being captured, but nothing like what is being shown on guidance.

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Thanks, Will... at least if this goes bad, we will have something to try to blame...   I'm just trying to wrap my head around physically how long and effect a dual structure could survive... sounds like it would not be long.  Thus, the impact may not be significant.

[dendrite]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Queening?

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[FXWX]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:24 PM, Ginx snewx said:

My point exactly.  I mean experience tells us 5H 7h 8H are perfect 

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I agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:22 PM, weatherwiz said:

That is very possible...I know I find myself doing this before storms quite a bit. Sometimes I'll end up reacting and making changes to my forecast when no changes really need to be made.

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I drive myself literally insane with these...after I post forecast, I'm just going to go home and inhale a package of gummies and break from wx for a bit

[Zeus]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:21 PM, weatherwiz said:

This is getting worse than severe wx weenies calling bust on a high risk before convection even develops 

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That would be like being annoyed the bufkits were delayed for the 12z GFS on Tuesday

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s way way too much over analyzing and worrying. A beast is coming 

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We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.

[PhineasC]

The NAM lives rent free in our heads. It's pretty funny the power of this shitty model to send everyone over the edge, with joy or despair.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:25 PM, dendrite said:

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[mostman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:27 PM, PhineasC said:

The NAM lives rent free in our heads. It's pretty funny the power of this shitty model to send everyone over the edge, with joy or despair.

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It’s because it runs first. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, Zeus said:

That would be like being annoyed the bufkits were delayed for the 12z GFS on Tuesday

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they do it intentionally to torture me

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:24 PM, JC-CT said:

I like the NAM model a lot. It comes out so fast!

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 the hot pocket of models ready in 3 minutes but garbage for you

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I drive myself literally insane with these...after I post forecast, I'm just going to go home and inhale a package of gummies and break from wx for a bit

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 @RUNNAWAYICEBERGthanking that lol

[MarkO]

Not sure I'm buying this double barrel. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I drive myself literally insane with these...after I post forecast, I'm just going to go home and inhale a package of gummies and break from wx for a bit

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This is prudent path and we hope you follow it. We'll be joining you at 5pm sharp. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:30 PM, Torch Tiger said:

 the hot pocket of models ready in 3 minutes but garbage for you

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ha, exactly - and sometimes it tastes so damn good, but usually it just burns the roof of your mouth

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM is literally 24-36” here… what more are people expecting?

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

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 if you get 15" from this, you'll be triggered.  don't lie

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:22 PM, DomNH said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we got two feet. I also wouldn't be surprised if we got 14''.

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Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if we got 12" in between bands, 18" from a good storm or 36" from a June 2015 band. That's just the nature of the big boys. Except for Feb 2013, there are always surprises and haves v have nots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:30 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is prudent path and we hope you follow it. We'll be joining you at 5pm sharp. 

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Gotta trust the EURO here...you can't give yourself a popsicle headache over this shit when it clearly won't be resolved.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:31 PM, Torch Tiger said:

 if you get 15" from this, you'll be triggered.  don't lie

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Absolutely...but there are certainly worse things that I could be triggered by.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:31 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM is literally 24-36” here… what more are people expecting?

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We were hoping for more snow for you

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.

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I get that capture part . That is important.  I’m referring to some of the other micro analysis going on which doesn’t matter in the end 

[Snowcrazed71]

Honestly, at this point especially with a model like the NAM or some of the smaller models, you're going to get these Bumps and Jumps back and forth within the models search for 15-20 hours from the events. I think everybody I've been through so much with the way the models were going over the last several days that we just need to take a breath and enjoy the ride. This is going to be amazing

[EastonSN+]

I just over analyzed the NAM.

I mean that is a serious cut back across the entire forum but JUST THE NAM AND ONLY ONE RUN.

Nice storm still. Hopefully next run is back to HISTORIC.

No I am not looking at Kutchera.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.

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I’m not even sure the double low thing would prevent historic in eastern areas… even the models toying with that are still dropping obscene Amounts here 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta trust the EURO here...you can't give yourself a popsicle headache over this shit when it clearly won't be resolved.

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I do that to myself too, then I chew...and relax. But euro has tickled east at H7 some though, which was expected, but you're in a good spot. Thinking 8 is the floor here and 16 ceiling.