Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ROOSTA]

Ask and ye shall receive

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Lol you went from giving up the ghost to resurrected and filled with the weenie spirit.

Worthy of praise. 

Lol tough crowd.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I am seeing that, displaced east by anywhere from 15-50 miles. Because I generally ignore the NAM.

I am keeping NAM in mind also but only weighing 30% as opposed to EURO 70%.

I am taking into account the EPS and EURO keeps trending west AND banding tenets to be west of modeling.

However yeah I don't think 20 to the NYK boarder and I don't see the SEMA changeover.

One thing to keep in mind was NEMO was in a much much warmer air mass. Not sure how the colder air mass affects anything.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The Mets that matter have us 18-24

Yeah . I have 18-28” with local 30” jacks out on FB Tolland Groups 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Ask and ye shall receive

I love how that shows how the western CT hills almost make it to the coast. When you are coming into the Norwalk harbor you can really see it.

[BrianW]

The power outages are going to be a disaster with the cold and wind. Boston's high is 18 Sat and even the cape gets into the teens Sat night.  You lose power in that and pipes are bursting quick. The line crews are going to be slowed down getting around with all the snow as well. 

[Organizing Low]

Well it’s snowing here this morning , blowing and  gusty, yet  another in a long line of seasonal depression January mornings for the non weenies here .  
 

22 here but classic set up with the cold air blasting in here to fuel the fire over you guys.  
 

Ottawa already down to zero.  They had 19 inches last week, told my dad they will be arctic sunny and bitter, watching the snow on tv this time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well we will see always some minima in between bands as you know. But when people started posting its unlikely we get to normal I bit my tongue.  I am intrigued by long term, oh my

As long as we keep squashing the cutter next week which EPS continues to do we won’t lose it all 

[jbenedet]

To me, the risk for small corrections is tilted west given the H500 cut-off timing/location south of LI. The surface will follow the H5 low, it’s just a matter of sooner or later. Right now GFS and euro are saying later. So that’s the qpf output for this scenario. What if it happens sooner?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It definitely was with the trough. But it does seem that we are at the point where meso low dynamics are equally/more important.

He is worried about the Jack

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

06z EURO doesn't look more amped and west to me...looks dead buts on 00z.

Yeah it's close but it did expand the heavy precip further west and Northwest so more joy.

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

06z EURO doesn't look more amped and west to me...looks dead buts on 00z.

This is what I was seeing (actually I was seeing higher heights downstream earlier than this)

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, Digityman said:

@Lava Rock @dryslot 

For the first time in a while, I think @tunafish and I are liking being about a mile off the coast....

When its over, You will be further inland lol, Should be awesome there..............

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

He is worried about the Jack

Unabashedly

[TalcottWx]

36 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Will have Boston supermarket report in a bit. 

We line. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This is what I was seeing (actually I was seeing higher heights downstream earlier than this)

Looks like noise....clown map didn't move

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We line. 

Why is everyone wearing masks?

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like noise....clown map didn't move

There's a reason I said "it's not going east" instead of "it's going west"

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it's close but it did expand the heavy precip further west and Northwest so more joy.

I think its probably just expanding the precip shield to the nw, which was always argued for....but deformation etc was same. Believe me, if I felt it was amped you would all hear about it lol

[JC-CT]

It also increased qpf by 0.25" for the largest city in the country

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

There's a reason I said "it's not going east" instead of "it's going west"

Okay, I wasn't here for that lol Chillax

[dryslot]

Ha ha, What a cluster to the west on the 06z EPS of the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its probably just expanding the precip shield to the nw, which was always argued for....but deformation etc was same. Believe me, if I felt it was amped you would all hear about it lol

 

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It also increased qpf by 0.25" for the largest city in the country

 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I wasn't here for that lol Chillax

It was west, JC is right as i said it was as well, Less dynamic then 0z though, For ones further north, Cut precip by a 10th but pretty much noise

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

The trough being amped is what helped do that. What is even happening here

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This is what I was seeing (actually I was seeing higher heights downstream earlier than this)

I agree that’s an important shift. If you can make it out at a North America  “view” without straining your eyes it’s not noise. That’s a 50 mile shift southwest with the H5 occlusion. Big deal for mid Atlantic and the west crew. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is everyone wearing masks?

To hide their facial expressions when looking at the 12z models

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was west, JC is right as i said it was as well, Less dynamic then 0z though, For ones further north, Cut precip by a 10th but pretty much noise

Well, if it was west, then that was negated by a bit less intensity bc it didn't matter back here.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It was west, JC is right as i said it was as well, Less dynamic then 0z though, For ones further north, Cut precip by a 10th but pretty much noise

Yeah...I was focused more on those currently on the fringes, not whether methuen mass gets 27" or 33".

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, What a cluster to the west on the 06z EPS of the mean.

No more of those east meso lows really