Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Heisy said:

I flew from Philly to Colorado for last year's March event. I'm headed up to NE his morning, though I still haven't decided on a location. Its worth it screw it

His standard for returning is pretty high though. It’s possible his area in RI gets more like 18” and he would have to drive like 7 hours from BUF after flying across country.  That’s a huge commitment. 

[mahk_webstah]

I understand the dilemma and the craziness of coming back for a snowstorm.  Once I left my parents during the xmas-new years holiday in florida and flew home for a projected 1-2footer in Philly.  It was a 36 flight home and then back to Florida.  We only got 9 inches!  I was crushed.

My flight Lon-Bos for Saturday got cancelled.  Not surprising to Will or Scott lol.  Booked to come in Sunday morning same flight.  But debating flying to Philly or New York to arrive midday Saturday and try to then make my way home.  Might be just too much work.  I hate missing a storm, but I kinda think more are coming in February.  If you have a base of 2 feet then even a nice 4-8er feels like a big storm.

I'm going to require many photos and vids from you guys.  I have to get my car at Logan, probably on Sunday, so I hope I'm driving through a post-apocolyptic scene in Boston.

Long live winter!

[mahk_webstah]

49 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I just bought some time, big time, but I Knew this would happen.  SW cad negligence flights Already into ESNE, MEANING the Closest airport I can get to is Buffalo.  I'll have to drive from 10:30pm to 5am to Boston.  I presume I can do a 1 day rental and they set it mine not getting it until Sunday in Boston?  

 

But now I can sleep.  1pm flight out of Burbank which also helps vs. a 6am out of LAX which I changed my Hartford flight from.  Never flew into Buffalo before.  BUT I'LL BE Driving in it at Those hours!  

 

Do Note!!!!  ALL the RI weather guys think this is Just a 12-18 storm.  PLEASE note that.  

I would just sit on the floor, cross your legs and meditate.  Calm  yourself.  Then make a decision.  Breath.  And know that it will snow again in your life.

[WeathergeekMD]

Ch 8 map this morning:

[Heisy]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His standard for returning is pretty high though. It’s possible his area in RI gets more like 18” and he would have to drive like 7 hours from BUF after flying across country.  That’s a huge commitment. 

Oh yea I didn't read that all, that's a damn hike. Especially if you have to drive through the storm you're screwed 

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I flew from Philly to Colorado for last year's March event. I'm headed up to NE his morning, though I still haven't decided on a location. Its worth it screw it

I think it is only worth it if you know you are going to be in a 2ft plus blizzard zone.  You should see what Ray and Will think, but my recommendation is to not stay in some hotel on a highway.  Stay in a town where you can walk around, pop into a bar, etc.  That way you can be out in the snow having a blast.  Maybe find a nice town on the north shore, or stay in Boston.  Or maybe go to Providence and book a place downtown?  There are cool places with nice town centers like Brookline, Newton, Rockport, etc.  I'm sure I'm missing some.

[Organizing Low]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I would just sit on the floor, cross your legs and meditate.  Calm  yourself.  Then make a decision.  Breath.  And know that it will snow again in your life.

I think this is Smart.   Frustrating, but smart. 

[Cmass495]

HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...

INTENSE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ALONG A HIGHLY BAROCLINIC ZONE, COUPLED
WITH VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS, DUAL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND A
FIRE HOSE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE, WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, EXCEPT WESTERN MA WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED, GIVEN THIS WILL BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE
HEAVY SNOW. FARTHER EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA, HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SAT AND SAT EVENING, WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA, YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF 12-18" ACROSS THIS AREA. THE HIGHEST 
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED ACROSS EASTERN MA INCLUDING
BOSTON,CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD WHERE 18-24 INCHES IS LIKELY,
AND A LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 30" IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE MESOSCALE BANDS SET UP,
USUALLY JUST TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OR MID LEVEL BENT BACK
WARM FRONT. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW MAY PIVOT AS FAR
WEST AS EASTERN CT/RI INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS. SLR IN THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 TO 1, GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES AT THIS TIME RANGE. OTHER ISSUE WITH THESE MESOSCALE BANDS,
IS THERE IS USUALLY CONSIDERABLY LESS SNOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BAND. THUS, SNOW TOTALS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT FROM LOCATION TO
LOCATION. ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AS THIS
IS THE AREA OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS AND
VSBY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. IT'S POSSIBLE THE BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NEED   
TO EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO RT-128 AND RI. WILL WAIT TO SEE TRENDS IN
12Z GUIDANCE. THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT, AS
INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH, IF
THE DRY SLOT COMES TOO FAR ONSHORE, THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW
TOTALS, WHICH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SOMETHING WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, IN RESPONSE TO VERY
STRONG NNW WINDS.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...

IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL NNE JET OF 75-85 KT TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 65 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE   
FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD INCLUDING THE ISLANDS. THUS, IT'S POSSIBLE
A FEW LOCATIONS GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE 64 KT/74 MPH! THEREFORE,
TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DANGEROUS COLD...

AS STORM INTENSIFIES, IT WILL DRAW UPON VERY COLD AIR OVER NY STATE
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. THUS
TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE TEENS WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NNE WINDS WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN +5 TO
-10F. SO NOT QUITE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GIVEN NEAR
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AGAIN, DON'T VENTURE OUT IF AT ALL   
POSSIBLE.
 

[WhiteLawns]

Does the nws hedge on the conservative side? They are still saying 6-8 inches on their map for Torrington but everyone else’s maps give us way more.

[Johnno]

2 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Does the nws hedge on the conservative side? They are still saying 6-8 inches on their map for Torrington but everyone else’s maps give us way more.

What’s the time stamp on the map? Could be the update from yesterday still

[Cmass495]

New. 

[mattm4242]

[WhiteLawns]

3 minutes ago, Johnno said:

What’s the time stamp on the map? Could be the update from yesterday still

It was 3am today

[NeonPeon]

2 hours ago, joey2002 said:

Could look a lot like the Juno band 

I posted the same yesterday. I'm expecting Juno like results here, with some transient good stuff on the way in and out but during the height of it, subsidence. Good, but not great... Which might be as good as it gets here, bar a wonkier setup. Classic setups, traditional results.

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, Organizing Low said:

I think this is Smart.   Frustrating, but smart. 

But for you its a no brainer

[Organizing Low]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

But for you its a no brainer

I took notes on suggested locations on your previous post, thank you, very helpful …and I agree you want to get out and enjoy it.   Will make my move late afternoon/early evening it’s only a 3.5 hour drive. 

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east. 

06z GFS did also to a lesser extent.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Love this tweet from Kevin W

 

[moneypitmike]

Congrats me.  Right on my head.

[moneypitmike]

 

 

[mattm4242]

Every station besides CBS Boston has basically all of eastern mass in 18+ now, with multiple just saying 24+. I’d expect cbs to chuck em up at some point this morning.
 

 

[Hoth]

It's remarkable how reliable weenie despair has been over the past decade in predicting major events. Just thinking back, folks were utterly desolate in late January 2013 after a horrendous 2012 and a slow start to the season. Scott jumped, Kevin dismissed Nemo until about 48 hours out etc. Ditto in January 2015. Someone should generate a weenie mood index as a contra indicator.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Blizzard warning at Pit2, ftw.

Meanwhile, BOX does not chuck.

That’s old. BOX upped and chucked. 

[NorEastermass128]

47 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

@moneypitmike

[dan11295]

Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.

[codfishsnowman]

6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.

Thats fair

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s why they are not a “go to” for weather information. Always conservative , playing catch-up . Puff puff pass 

[FXWX]

While no one should be slam-dunking the ball yet relative to final outcomes, congrats to TIP for another tremendous job on identifying a medium range major storm threat!!! Well done...

Also, this is another case in a long line of storms, most nowhere near as dynamic as this one, that understanding the tendency for mid-level forcing to produce more precip further west than initially modeled, is critical.

There will always be concerns about the western extent of mod/hvy precip, and sometimes there will be heart-breaking transitions from tons of snow to very little across short distances.  But more times than not you can hedge the mod/hvy qpf west & north of the fronto forcing.   As noted above, nothing is a done deal yet with this storm and hopefully all of the positive moves over the past 12 hours or so continue.

Now we should all try to mentally slow this down and enjoy the process & evolution of this storm, and not rush the experience to a close!

 

 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

Chasing the 2nd low again

I wouldn't worry about it 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO did tick west a hair for western zones, but not enough to pork easties...perfect run

 

I like how the euro kind of blunts the screw zone.