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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run is also shoving the low level fronto a little further inland into eastern Mass, too, which will negate losing the mid level band if that continues, as things tic west a bit more. Some hints of it now briefly getting back to near my area down to Wilmington and through metro west into Norwood area at height, before collapsing back to coast, now that this is tracking a bit closer

Screen Shot 2022-01-28 at 1.52.30 AM.png

I’m sorry - wut exactly is this map?

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Don’t kid yourself….there’s like 3 weeks left to work with - after that the elevation idiots have the advantage for like a couple more weeks then it’s Morch and we all know how that goes….

March 2018 and 2013 say otherwise, March is a winter month.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

Could look a lot like the Juno band 

At 12Z it was the #1 analog and at 00Z it was the #3 analog on the NAM runs and based on what i've seen with this storm and that it's pretty similar at multiple levels. I hate to say it and i know some on here will nail me to the cross for that but its hard not to see it. Not saying it plays out exactly like that but something similar wouldn't surprise me at all. East CT does great, even better than expected and a sharp cut off somewhere in central CT with low end warning snowfall gradient.

255278476_Screenshot2022-01-28022236.png.9ee67d7a248a69e0f90c3b429fe07f2f.png

 

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

Sitting here at a table editing a video in LA.  With the Boards at their quietest and the Witching Hour just 2 hours away with What Decision I make.  I'm feeling like YET Again, like Climo always does, Western Areas will win wheather CT or Worcester or SNH, and Northern RI / West of Boston will be a mini-screw zone.  

 

No decision here yet, but leaning towards No to flying in.  

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Sitting here at a table editing a video in LA.  With the Boards at their quietest and the Witching Hour just 2 hours away with What Decision I make.  I'm feeling like I've Again, Western Areas will win, and Northern RI / West of Boston will be a mini- screw zone.  

 

No decision here yet, but leaning towards No.  

beer?

 

edit- If you can afford to make the trip, why not? If you get here and it’s disappointing it will still be better than staying in LA and regretting missing a monster.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

beer?

 

edit- If you can afford to make the trip, why not? If you get here and it’s disappointing it will still be better than staying in LA and regretting missing a monster.

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

Sounds like a tough decision, but have you considered the blizzard part? It might be pretty crazy…

At the same time though, at some point another big storm will happen. Just impossible to say when, or even if this one completely works out.

Flip a coin. If it comes up you don’t go and it’s not a relief, just go anyway. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

NAM 06z is creating a superstorm that will obliterate much of New England and Long Island. What else can you say? 

Looks to be rotating enough to bring icing to the Maine coast but have to think that S+ will prevail any distance inland.

Extreme circulation depicted at 36h near 40N 69W -- it's probably heading for a graze past the cape at 955 mbs. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

NAM 06z is creating a superstorm that will obliterate much of New England and Long Island. What else can you say? 

Looks to be rotating enough to bring icing to the Maine coast but have to think that S+ will prevail any distance inland.

Extreme circulation depicted at 36h near 40W 69W -- it's probably heading for a graze past the cape at 955 mbs. 

Hurricane force winds and a massive storm surge too

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

That is pretty much the equal of the Cleveland superbomb of Jan 26 1978 in terms of continuous deepening and considerable brief rotation of surface features. I was actually in a weather office that day in Ontario and plotted up a map with a 955 mb center. The rotation was so strong that cold south winds were creating squalls on the north shore of Lake Erie and winds there were gusting to 100 mph. Of course that's on the ocean side of this storm but the west side would be like the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan blizzard side. That's all I can really compare this to, other than maybe extratropical Irene hitting Ireland in 2017. 

Question is, real or imaginary? On to the GFS to see what Sleepy has to say about it. 

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

I just bought some time, big time, but I Knew this would happen.  SW cad negligence flights Already into ESNE, MEANING the Closest airport I can get to is Buffalo.  I'll have to drive from 10:30pm to 5am to Boston.  I presume I can do a 1 day rental and they set it mine not getting it until Sunday in Boston?  

 

But now I can sleep.  1pm flight out of Burbank which also helps vs. a 6am out of LAX which I changed my Hartford flight from.  Never flew into Buffalo before.  BUT I'LL BE Driving in it at Those hours!  

 

Do Note!!!!  ALL the RI weather guys think this is Just a 12-18 storm.  PLEASE note that.  

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I just bought some time, big time, but I Knew this would happen.  SW cad negligence flights Already into ESNE, MEANING the Closest airport I can get to is Buffalo.  I'll have to drive from 10:30pm to 5am to Boston.  I presume I can do a 1 day rental and they set it mine not getting it until Sunday in Boston?  

 

But now I can sleep.  1pm flight out of Burbank which also helps vs. a 6am out of LAX which I changed my Hartford flight from.  Never flew into Buffalo before.  BUT I'LL BE Driving in it at Those hours!  

 

Do Note!!!!  ALL the RI weather guys think this is Just a 12-18 storm.  PLEASE note that.  

And here I am thinking whether I should drive from Vermont lol 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That is pretty much the equal of the Cleveland superbomb of Jan 26 1978 in terms of continuous deepening and considerable brief rotation of surface features. I was actually in a weather office that day in Ontario and plotted up a map with a 955 mb center. The rotation was so strong that cold south winds were creating squalls on the north shore of Lake Erie and winds there were gusting to 100 mph. Of course that's on the ocean side of this storm but the west side would be like the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan blizzard side. That's all I can really compare this to, other than maybe extratropical Irene hitting Ireland in 2017. 

Question is, real or imaginary? On to the GFS to see what Sleepy has to say about it. 

How close is this to a triple phaser?

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

That was one for sure in 1978, the Great Lakes windstorm of Nov 9 1913 probably another. I don't know if this qualifies technically or not, will look into it. It is not a whole lot different from the Blizzard of 1888 in terms of track and intensity. I think that one got blocked more when it reached the Cape though. 

This also reminds me of "White Juan" which hit eastern Canada after the summer when Juan hit NS, which I think was 2002 so that would be around Jan 2003. I think that storm missed most of NE and came in from the s.s.w. crossing NS and PEI, 30-40 inch snowfalls and extreme drifting resulted. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

The amount of people I would make angry, gigs lost, money lost, meetings changed.  The rental car back at 1 Airport 6 days early,, Expensive Uber to the other airport, then DOES SW CANCEL the MDW to Hartford flight?  What do I do when I get to Hartford if I do?  

 

It's a MASSIVE Massive undertaking.  That then effects my next trip to Alabama and the LA trip after it.  

I flew from Philly to Colorado for last year's March event. I'm headed up to NE his morning, though I still haven't decided on a location. Its worth it screw it

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