Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Consensus is that one hell of a storm is hitting this weekend.  Details being worked out for your back yards.

 

     

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:36 AM, PhineasC said:

Only 12k NAM and Euro show this as some bombed-out HECS monster. GGEM/GFS/ICON/3k NAM/RGEM all show something fairly "standard." Still a nice storm but not something that will be endlessly referenced here for years to come.

Expand  

Some of the big ones have been called by a Euro/Nam combo.

[IowaStorm05]

I think Central/E Connecticut is going to get a historic dump. Hartford is going to be crippled, and my workplace is gonna be closed Saturday if not longer. The magnitude of this storm is simply going to shut down the east coast and it is going to kill people, but not as many people as the number that would die in routine car accidents if there was no storm so it offsets it.

[SeanInWayland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 3:27 AM, PhineasC said:

I haven't been paying attention to the temps, but just realized that this could be heavy snow at zero or below here? That's nuts. Never experienced that in my life.

Expand  

In late January 1982 I was in Lyndonville, VT for a college XC ski race. We knew a storm was coming though it was hellaciously cold ahead of it, and when we woke up that morning it was -10F and snowing really hard outside. Did my race (which was a real pain given the conditions), and then we all piled into our coaches Subaru and headed back to Boston. Went through heavy snow and eventually ice, but somehow made it safely back to Boston.

One of the reasons I remember this so clearly is that when I got back to my dorm I heard that a plane had just slid off the runway at Logan, killing two passengers.

[ice1972]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:38 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

I think Central/E Connecticut is going to get a historic dump. Hartford is going to be crippled, and my workplace is gonna be closed Saturday if not longer. The magnitude of this storm is simply going to shut down the east coast and it is going to kill people, but not as many people as the number that would die in routine car accidents if there was no storm so it offsets it.

Expand  

I mean really?  This isn't Virginia

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:33 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, not a lot of model evidence for a dramatic LBSW outcome.

Expand  

No, not worried about LBSW.......just worried about LBAAM

[Greg]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:36 AM, PhineasC said:

Only 12k NAM and Euro show this as some bombed-out HECS monster. GGEM/GFS/ICON/3k NAM/RGEM all show something fairly "standard." Still a nice storm but not something that will be endlessly referenced here for years to come.

Expand  

Actually, it's the 12K 00Z and to a lesser extent 18Z Euro show this. We'll see what the 00Z Euro says at 1 AM this morning.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, not worried about LBSW.......just worried about LBAAM

Expand  

all around me... lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:35 AM, wxsniss said:

Yeah always great to see Harv fired up, classic.

0z NAM verbatim might have a chunk of 17-19" deep in his 24"+ zone, and would also warrant expanding the 18-24 zone farther west... he did neither.

Appropriately not flinching to that single piece of guidance.

Expand  

I wouldn't either right now....my forum nerves do not constitute a forecast.

That will be tomorrow.

[ROOSTA]

Naptime is over, what did I miss?
25 pages of frivolity, implosions on the scale of miles and inches. Shift on the track by twenty miles means the difference in getting 18" or 30" 

A stall and loopback is rarely modeled correctly, best left to nowcast. 

 

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:40 AM, ice1972 said:

I mean really?  This isn't Virginia

Expand  

They get those 400 car pile ups in the Blue Ridge passes.  Ice and fog.  Fog so thick they're 20 feet away at 65mph before they see the jam.  No one really understands why they drive that fast under those conditions.  

[tiger_deF]

West shift on the medium range HRRR

[IowaStorm05]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:40 AM, ice1972 said:

I mean really?  This isn't Virginia

Expand  

This is probably gonna dump a fair amount of snow in some unusual places, most certainly all of coastal Delaware if not VA. And a 15-30 inch dump in SE CT might not be a Centennial storm but its going to **** it up at least a little.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:44 AM, ROOSTA said:

Naptime is over, what did I miss?
25 pages of frivolity, implosions on the scale of miles and inches. Shift on the track by twenty miles means the difference in getting 18" or 30" 

A stall and loopback is rarely modeled correctly, best left to nowcast. 

 

Expand  

Well put.

[Juliancolton]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:40 AM, ice1972 said:

I mean really?  This isn't Virginia

Expand  

Big storms always kill a couple dozen people from things like CO poisoning and heart attacks while shoveling. It sucks, but even with plenty of advance warning you can't do too much about it.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:39 AM, SeanInWayland said:

In late January 1982 I was in Lyndonville, VT for a college XC ski race. We knew a storm was coming though it was hellaciously cold ahead of it, and when we woke up that morning it was -10F and snowing really hard outside. Did my race (which was a real pain given the conditions), and then we all piled into our coaches Subaru and headed back to Boston. Went through heavy snow and eventually ice, but somehow made it safely back to Boston.

One of the reasons I remember this so clearly is that when I got back to my dorm I heard that a plane had just slid off the runway at Logan, killing two passengers.

Expand  

World Airways DC-10.  Cockpit and first few rows of first class broke into the water, dead passengers never found.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:46 AM, Juliancolton said:

Big storms always kill a couple dozen people from things like CO poisoning and heart attacks while shoveling. It sucks, but even with plenty of advance warning you can't do too much about it.

Expand  

An ex college teammate of mine died shoveling in the Feb1-3 storm in NNJ. He was only 42 and in great physical health. Tragic and strange. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:45 AM, Patrick-02540 said:

They get those 400 car pile ups in the Blue Ridge passes.  Ice and fog.  Fog so thick they're 20 feet away at 65mph before they see the jam.  No one really understands why they drive that fast under those conditions.  

Expand  

Happened last year in the ice storm in Fort Worth.  I lived up North, not even we can really drive on ice, but we don't drive 60 in it.  NWS FWD had warnings posted.  https://www.nbcdfw.com/local/graphic-video-shows-cars-18-wheelers-collide-on-icy-i-35w-in-fort-worth/2549202/

[Warwick WX]

I'm literally listening to Harvey on the retro broadcast of Channel 7's coverage of the Blizzard of '78 from the weekend after, on Youtube.  The amusing part was the anchor cut Dukakis short from telling too long a story to get to a young Harvey.  He mentioned a "dual center", one near the surface and another high up in the atmosphere, contributing to the strength of the blizzard.  I'm no expert but maybe someone could clarify, but does that sound similar to the "dual lows" some of these models are producing?

[MarkO]

The moment you realize you're going from 6th to 26th in NE snow

[ice1972]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:52 AM, Warwick WX said:

I'm literally listening to Harvey on the retro broadcast of Channel 7's coverage of the Blizzard of '78 from the weekend after, on Youtube.  The amusing part was the anchor cut Dukakis short from telling too long a story to get to a young Harvey.  He mentioned a "dual center", one near the surface and another high up in the atmosphere, contributing to the strength of the blizzard.  I'm no expert but maybe someone could clarify, but does that sound similar to the "dual lows" some of these models are producing?

Expand  

Was he talking about the system being stacked?  the biggies are always stacked up to 500......and when 200 closes off oh shit.....

[dendrite]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:52 AM, Warwick WX said:

I'm literally listening to Harvey on the retro broadcast of Channel 7's coverage of the Blizzard of '78 from the weekend after, on Youtube.  The amusing part was the anchor cut Dukakis short from telling too long a story to get to a young Harvey.  He mentioned a "dual center", one near the surface and another high up in the atmosphere, contributing to the strength of the blizzard.  I'm no expert but maybe someone could clarify, but does that sound similar to the "dual lows" some of these models are producing?

Expand  

Probably referencing the upper low capturing the sfc low giving it the “blizzard loop”.

[Sn0waddict]

HDERP AKA HERPES model

[wxsniss]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't either right now....my forum nerves do not constitute a forecast.

That will be tomorrow.

Expand  

Oh I know lol

And I understand the nerves... my area / north metrowest may have similar issues

And while I'm fairly confident, I'm not 100% absolutely certain we don't see progressively earlier capture until it's congrats Forky

Sounds like a broken record, but once again Euro run will be critical

[ice1972]

Looking at 300 on GFS it does breifly close off lol......epic

[Juliancolton]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

An ex college teammate of mine died shoveling in the Feb1-3 storm in NNJ. He was only 42 and in great physical health. Tragic and strange. 

Expand  

Awful. The cold air immediately strains breathing and circulation, and then you start exerting muscles that don't get much use over an extended period of time driven by the desire to get the job done despite feeling tired... recipe for disaster.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:45 AM, tiger_deF said:

West shift on the medium range HRRR

Expand  

That was probably inevitable since it was a fringe job for many. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:55 AM, Sn0waddict said:

HDERP AKA HERPES model

Expand  

I’ve bumped us up to 8-12”. wish the nam/euro is right but a compromise is more likely then an all out win.

[NotSureWeather]

Can we just acknowledge how eff’n lucky we are right now to be tracking this storm. A whiff is basically off the table. We are literally at the point of arguing who gets the most FEET! 
 

Life has honestly been so hard for a lot of us these past few years. It’s awesome to see a bunch of strangers come together with so much passion about one thing.

I don’t know James but this sounds like the type of storm he hoped for. Let’s finish this thing boys and bring it home for everyone.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/28/2022 at 4:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve bumped us up to 8-12”. wish the nam/euro is right but a compromise is more likely then an all out win.

Expand  

I'll be ecstatic if I get that.