Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:28 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless. 

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It was posted somewhere in this thread near/during the 18z catastrophe yesterday…

[powderfreak]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I stayed in my seat the entire ride. Saw a bunch of people that lifted their bars and fall out or jump yesterday . Reached my hand out to save them, but they let it go . Even flicked me off as they fell

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If it snows big, you will win every time. Congrats dude.  Wish I could head to Woodstock. 

[radarman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:27 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yesterday’s 18z NAM run is unforgivable 

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12z eps illustrated how easily a run could go haywire...  most folks understood the EE rule was in play.  

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:37 AM, JC-CT said:

are you sure you weren't reading their finger backwards?

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I’m not following this 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:36 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Corey.   Corey causes it

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Beat me to it.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

It’s a widespread dumping. That’s a classic. 

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Honestly, too perfect now. I can't really afford many more ticks W. hopefully locked in and just noise going forward 

[CT Rain]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:06 AM, Johnno said:

Ryan must be sprinting back to the computer after the 7pm news to see the 18z Euro

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I was actually getting ready to go pick up dinner with Scott and Legro texted me lol

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:33 AM, toller65 said:

GYX and WCSH6 currently have about half of that, me thinks by morning their forecasts will be upped

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

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You have to go up in increments not ballz in out of the gate, Those will get adjusted, GYX already adjusted up the the 10 and 90 percentile.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:38 AM, powderfreak said:

If it snows big, you will win every time. Congrats dude.  Wish I could head to Woodstock. 

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Sometimes I downplay. Not these big boys though that lock in days out. And I truly mean this.. it gave me more confidence with the GFS OTS. There has not been one big boy in as long as I’ve been on the boards that the GFS had not been OTS and last time catch on. They may have upgraded it, but they did not fix that part

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:39 AM, CT Rain said:

I was actually getting ready to go pick up dinner with Scott and Legro texted me lol

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Scooter sleeping over? Same bed head to feet ?

[bristolri_wx]

So no concern with the Hi-Res models being farther east with this thing?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:38 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not following this 

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what's a middle finger read backwards

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:35 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:

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https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[hawkeye_wx]

I haven't read any posts mentioning it, but it appears much of this snow will be falling during the daylight on Saturday, which only adds to the greatness of the storm.

[dendrite]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:35 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:

 

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[dendrite]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:42 AM, OceanStWx said:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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Ninja’d

[rcostell]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:26 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

IPA’s for everyone here. On me!

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Enjoy up there and raise a glass to James! This ones for him. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:42 AM, OceanStWx said:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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yeah, gfs having a tough month

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:39 AM, dryslot said:

You have to go up in increments not ballz in out of the gate, Those will get adjusted, GYX already adjusted up the the 10 and 90 percentile.

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Similar to yesterday's horror show at 18z, there's no reason to go all in here either. Trends look good, but 00z could easily messenger shuffle east and we don't want to overshoot the forecast.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:42 AM, hawkeye_wx said:

I haven't read any posts mentioning it, but it appears much of this snow will be falling during the daylight on Saturday, which only adds to the greatness of the storm.

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we talked about it early on, but it's been one of the few locked-in facets of this storm

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:15 AM, Cyclone-68 said:

As long as George Clooney isn’t in it I’ll be happy 

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Markey Mark and Clooney drowning at the end was epic.  Making Grace a Cat 5 kept that movie from being perfect.  

[butterfish55]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:34 AM, Brian5671 said:

what's the little hole over RI QPF wise caused by?

An accordion exploded

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:44 AM, OceanStWx said:

Similar to yesterday's horror show at 18z, there's no reason to go all in here either. Trends look good, but 00z could easily messenger shuffle east and we don't want to overshoot the forecast.

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That's why i like to see us get as much north and west as we can to give us wiggle room when we get that messenger (Scott) shuffle, RIP buddy the last 24hrs, 2015, We never got that, It actually went the other way which is rare but so are these, Him and i, PM'd a lot, Never met him, But it was like i knew him all my life.

[512high]

I have been snowplowing for 30 years or so, this should be a great one !, and I'm glad its a weekend for traffic reasons, I wonder if the big box stores and others sold every shovel and snowblower!

[nianticct]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:36 AM, JC-CT said:

climo

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Not

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:42 AM, hawkeye_wx said:

I haven't read any posts mentioning it, but it appears much of this snow will be falling during the daylight on Saturday, which only adds to the greatness of the storm.

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I've thought that a number of times today.

[moneypitmike]

Warnings up before or after the 00z run?

[dendrite]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:45 AM, butterfish55 said:

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:34 AM, Brian5671 said:

what's the little hole over RI QPF wise caused by?

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An accordion exploded

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Cory after every storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2022 at 11:40 PM, moneypitmike said:

Ray, have you issued any update?  Always eager for those--I hope you draw your lines in the right place for my hood.

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Tomorrow

[Dpb1983]

  On 1/28/2022 at 12:43 AM, rcostell said:

Enjoy up there and raise a glass to James! This ones for him. 

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This thread would be at 400 pages by now if he was here.  RIP