Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Rain]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:25 PM, nutmegfriar said:

Ryan staying somewhat conservative (rightly so).  Can always bump figures with more model consistency.  Then again, he can always throttle back, too.

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Yeah I'm happy with our numbers right now. 

Obviously big error bars here but we'll see.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

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Left em in the dust with no bus to go back and pick them up 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:26 PM, OceanStWx said:

Who inside 95 wouldn't take that and run though?

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I’d prob roll the dice at this point inside of 495 instead of signing on the dotted line for 8-9 inches. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

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I fully admit that yesterday I didn't think this was going to happen for us as far as getting much snow. The models were so erratic and most of the times in the past that didn't bode well for us. But I've always stayed positive. Very excited to see what does happen now

[andyhb]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:26 PM, wxsniss said:

Wow

Metrowest 18z Sat:

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Ok what in the actual f*ck...

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

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Don't forget all the bodies choking Boston Harbor from the Tobin. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah I'm happy with our numbers right now. 

Obviously big error bars here but we'll see.

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Haven't gotten home from work yet, but are you still sticking with 3-6 West of the river?

[512high]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

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Good map Chris, hope your right, lets hope public works is on their "A" game

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I’d prob roll the dice at this point inside of 495 instead of signing on the dotted line for 8-9 inches. 

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It's pretty close up here that the 10th percentile is actually my best event of the season so far. 

Obviously I'm putting it all on red though and hoping for something bigger.

[tiger_deF]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:26 PM, wxsniss said:

Wow

Metrowest 18z Sat:

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From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?

[weatherwiz]

These are my favorite maps to look at 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:31 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's pretty close up here that the 10th percentile is actually my best event of the season so far. 

Obviously I'm putting it all on red though and hoping for something bigger.

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Yeah I mean, if the upside wasn’t so high, I’d prob take 8” and run but when we have 24-30 as realistic upside, I’m gonna gamble. 

[NorEastermass128]

Harvey chucking them high and far. We’re in special territory now. 

[crossbowftw3]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:32 PM, tiger_deF said:

From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?

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that sounding as good as you can get for something like this 

[512high]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:32 PM, weatherwiz said:

These are my favorite maps to look at 

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Make a great screen saver!

[8611Blizz]

Bouchard just dropped a "pocket of 22" -28" right near my house, and mentioned that it could expand. 

[Greg]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:33 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Harvey chucking them high and far. We’re in special territory now. 

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What's interesting is that he doesn't do this so easily.

[andyhb]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:32 PM, tiger_deF said:

From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?

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Deep, saturated dendritic (snow) growth zone with large amounts of upward motion centered within it from the intense mid-level frontogenesis, cold temperatures closer to the surface -> very, very high snowfall rates. Wind will cut down somewhat, but you'd be easily talking 3-4"+/hr rates with that.

[mattm4242]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:33 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Harvey chucking them high and far. We’re in special territory now. 

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Look at the NWS high end map giving us the weenie line extending right up towards our area. The expected total does the same, but with a pedestrian 20+ inches lol 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:35 PM, andyhb said:

Deep, saturated dendritic (snow) growth zone with large amounts of upward motion centered within it from the intense mid-level frontogenesis, cold temperatures closer to the surface -> very, very high snowfall rates. Wind will cut down somewhat, but you'd be easily talking 3-4"+/hr rates with that.

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Honestly that's the only thing that's really "bad" about these soundings. Any dendrites/aggregates are going to get torn apart by the winds.

[ineedsnow]

hurricane hunters flying now 0z should give a pretty good idea tonight

[cut]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:32 PM, tiger_deF said:

From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?

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I don't know that piece well but the blue dash line from '0' is the temp I believe - the squiggly lines are dew and temp at that location (having them overlap means near full or full saturation). And the vertical markers are your heights and from what I have learned from this is that 700 is where the magic happens - and the column is saturated to the ground.

 

Caveat - I am a music major who was friends with a bunch of mets at Lowell and I've lurked here for a long time. Those with more knowledge then me feel free to egg me - I am total hobbyist.

[skierinvermont]

The GFS initialized the PV and heights over Canada a smidge farther NE. I mean I'd give 70% chance the GFS ticks west before even seeing that

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:15 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will most likely be some places in Central MA that get 10" and somebody 10-15mi away gets double that.  

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Hi

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:31 PM, 512high said:

Good map Chris, hope your right, lets hope public works is on their "A" game

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I'm comfortable with my map for now. I'm glad I used the + sign.

[WeatherWilly]

The dominoes have started falling. Forecasts being upgraded from 8-12 to 12-18, still somewhat lower than NWS.

 

 

[bristolri_wx]

It's insanity that 48 hours before a storm that mathematical probability ranges end-to-end getting spit out out are 8-38".  Amazing.

[512high]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:37 PM, OceanStWx said:

Honestly that's the only thing that's really "bad" about these soundings. Any dendrites/aggregates are going to get torn apart by the winds.

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Dam if you do or not, how to even measure at the shore with those wind gust......

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:28 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

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Too bad it's the 12knam. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/27/2022 at 9:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I am hardcore praying the GFS is west...even if it's just a smidgity-poo west.  

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me thinks it is