Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:33 PM, wx2fish said:

It's run to run jumps are nam-like for sensible weather. Can take those 5h scores and wipe with them

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[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, ineedsnow said:

I think 4 to 8 seems like a good bet here.. not a blockbuster but a good storm

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Really won't know until tomorrow morning.   Can't afford any consensus moves East. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Anyone post the 12z JMA yet?  Looked juicy, even back WOR.

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:37 PM, MarkO said:

48 hours out and...

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0-16" is a good range here.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Recon in the Atlantic today.  Should be ingested in 0z runs tonight.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

 

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I never understood that. How will that impact the features we are tracking when they are over western NAMR?

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Recon in the Atlantic today.  Should be ingested in 0z runs tonight.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

 

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Oh god now I’m gonna hold onto this for hope in case the EURO/18z don’t go well .

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:40 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Really won't know until tomorrow morning.   Can't afford any consensus moves East. 

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Agree

[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:41 PM, dryslot said:

0-16" is a good range here.

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Yep, seems reasonable for most of us for sure.

[SnowHole413]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, ineedsnow said:

I think 4 to 8 seems like a good bet here.. not a blockbuster but a good storm

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I would agree with that 

[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:42 PM, Sn0waddict said:

Oh god now I’m gonna hold onto this for hope in case the EURO/18z don’t go well .

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Euro is going to "tic east." Just brace yourself for it. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM ticked east....kind of like RGEM did.

Monster hit for eastern areas seems locked in...but the western areas is where this matters.

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I really, really think that one of them is initialized from the other...probably the rgem is initialized from the ggem if I had to guess. That or they use the same core or something.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL @ the shift by the Ukie.  

[George001]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks that have been into storms and storm tracking for many years know not to factor the gfs into any big east coast snowstorm. If you simply don’t use it until the day of the storm , you will have a far better forecast and idea of final outcome. If you used it for this storm, you’d have forecast little to no snow for everyone 

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I’m with you on this, I don’t use the gfs at all. Gfs = good for shit.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:29 PM, Henry's Weather said:

The CMC is NUTS. Stalled storm over the benchmark, going from 976->973 between 12z and 18z Saturday. Nuts.

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Better run for EMA than 0z.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:41 PM, dryslot said:

0-16" is a good range here.

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agree. plan accordingly

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:45 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Better run for EMA than 0z.

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SE MA, not NE.

[PhineasC]

NAM is suddenly all alone.

Better hope Euro doesn't go east and look like the GFS.

The performance from the GGEM and UKMET have been putrid for this event. Literally shifting every six hours from MECS to mostly whiff.

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:44 PM, JC-CT said:

I really, really think that one of them is initialized from the other...probably the rgem is initialized from the ggem if I had to guess. That or they use the same core or something.

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I think your right, So there is the answer to why it sucks.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cmc move was much more than a tickle it was a sizable 75 mile or so Move ESE 

i didn’t look at ukmet but I’m guessing the same ...ooo about 125 plus mile shift ESE haha

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:51 PM, PhineasC said:

NAM is suddenly all alone.

Better hope Euro doesn't go east and look like the GFS.

The performance from the GGEM and UKMET have been putrid for this event. Literally shifting every six hours from MECS to mostly whiff.

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To be specific. No one east of ORH should really be worrying here. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc move was much more than a tickle it was a sizable 75 mile or so Move ESE 

i didn’t look at ukmet but I’m guessing the same 

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It’s a very different outcome if this doesn’t have the hook West or any type of slow down.

you go from major regional storm to nice storm for folks along the coast. 

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:54 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

To be specific. No one east of ORH should really be worrying here. 

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Gotta be specific in your posts or we will have double the confused weenie posts in here. 

[mahk_webstah]

I wonder what is causing the CMC and UK to go off more e and s?  For many days looked like a hooking into the GOM

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

I never understood that. How will that impact the features we are tracking when they are over western NAMR?

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Amateur guess better sampling of downstream heights, which will affect course of upstream features.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:54 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

To be specific. No one east of ORH should really be worrying here. 

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Yes, E Mass is fine. Only question is 15 or 30, but the models have been locked on that area for days now. It's everyone else outside the bubble that are swinging wildly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:51 PM, PhineasC said:

NAM is suddenly all alone.

Better hope Euro doesn't go east and look like the GFS.

The performance from the GGEM and UKMET have been putrid for this event. Literally shifting every six hours from MECS to mostly whiff.

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GEM wasn't a huge shift, its just matters so much to us...

[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc move was much more than a tickle it was a sizable 75 mile or so Move ESE 

i didn’t look at ukmet but I’m guessing the same ...ooo about 125 plus mile shift ESE haha

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UKMET was an absurd jump east. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:55 PM, PhineasC said:

Yes, E Mass is fine. Only question is 15 or 30, but the models have been locked on that area for days now. It's everyone else outside the bubble that are swinging wildly.

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I don’t know that E mass is locked at a foot 

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:54 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I wonder what is causing the CMC and UK to go off more e and s?  For many days looked like a hooking into the GOM

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Well if its any consolation, The ICON was west @ 12z..............

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

  On 1/27/2022 at 3:54 PM, UnitedWx said:

Only the stuff on the streets that's now causing ODs because of fentynal. Buy from a trusted source

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Ideally grow your own. Organically in living soil. True medicine.