Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[tiger_deF]

Now watch the Euro do something completely unexpected at the 11th hour and ruin the consensus again

[MJO812]

Anyone have the ukie ? 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM ticked east....kind of like RGEM did.

Monster hit for eastern areas seems locked in...but the western areas is where this matters.

One of the red taggers yesterday I think kept mentioned the intense inflow that would push the moisture further n and w and modelled.  Is that no longer on the table?  Or some sort of deformation out further n and w?

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS looks a little better

Definitely a solid left lean cluster there.

[EastonSN+]

What kind of step back did the ukemt make?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

CMC looks great for the River.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, LovewellHemp said:

As a cannabis industry professional and owner of a hemp company whose been growing the plant for 15 years, I feel compelled to step in and point out that there are close to 100k deaths per year directly related to alcohol. That doesn't even include disease, addiction and the destruction that follows from alcohol. I love beer and weed, but I have never in my life seen someone harmed by cannabis. Paranoid for about 30 minutes is about the worst effect I've seen. And my friends and I smoked whatever we could find in highschool. It just takes a quick search of "yearly deaths from alcohol" and "yearly deaths from cannabis". Cannabis is medicinal, but like everything else, including the water you drink, quality and moderation is crucial. I love beer too, but I've never seen anyone's life improved by beer. I have countless stores of people using THC and other cannabinoids to improve their quality of life in huge ways. Ok, that's all. Sorry for getting political folks

Drunk in tolland can't be helped. He's stuck in his old ways unable to adjust or move with the times. 

 

Well said though, we will chew as many gummies over the next 3 days to help cope with another near missed big event. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree....tightening up.

I mean yours and mine 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said:

As a cannabis industry professional and owner of a hemp company whose been growing the plant for 15 years, I feel compelled to step in and point out that there are close to 100k deaths per year directly related to alcohol. That doesn't even include disease, addiction and the destruction that follows from alcohol. I love beer and weed, but I have never in my life seen someone harmed by cannabis. Paranoid for about 30 minutes is about the worst effect I've seen. And my friends and I smoked whatever we could find in highschool. It just takes a quick search of "yearly deaths from alcohol" and "yearly deaths from cannabis". Cannabis is medicinal, but like everything else, including the water you drink, quality and moderation is crucial. I love beer too, but I've never seen anyone's life improved by beer. I have countless stores of people using THC and other cannabinoids to improve their quality of life in huge ways. Ok, that's all. Sorry for getting political folks

Let me present Cousin Eddie...

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, LovewellHemp said:

As a cannabis industry professional and owner of a hemp company whose been growing the plant for 15 years, I feel compelled to step in and point out that there are close to 100k deaths per year directly related to alcohol. That doesn't even include disease, addiction and the destruction that follows from alcohol. I love beer and weed, but I have never in my life seen someone harmed by cannabis. Paranoid for about 30 minutes is about the worst effect I've seen. And my friends and I smoked whatever we could find in highschool. It just takes a quick search of "yearly deaths from alcohol" and "yearly deaths from cannabis". Cannabis is medicinal, but like everything else, including the water you drink, quality and moderation is crucial. I love beer too, but I've never seen anyone's life improved by beer. I have countless stores of people using THC and other cannabinoids to improve their quality of life in huge ways. Ok, that's all. Sorry for getting political folks

I don't think that is political, and I imagine it helps manage the ups and downs of model whiplash

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Now watch the Euro do something completely unexpected at the 11th hour and ruin the consensus again

It rarely does this close in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean yours and mine 

Oh, yea...I def. think getting the death band back to CTRV is losing steam with these east tics, but can't rule it out.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the death band is going to be between me and ORH.

I hope that includes two towns east of ORH.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It never does this close in. 

Except January of 2015, when it porked us with only 24 hrs until go time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Probably like around or just east of Kev up through ORH and back to me looks prime now.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, yea...I def. think getting the death band back to CTRV is losing steam with these east tics, but can't rule it out.

I think there will be rather large midlevel band of fluff back to the NY border 

[radarman]

12z overall takeaways

less dragging the energy out of the sw

better northern stream phasing

maybe a little less confluence

unclear surface structure

[ineedsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably like around or just east of Kev up through ORH and back to me looks prime now.

ill take a small shift west please 

[nutmegfriar]

I miss the good old days when threads about snowstorms were threads about snowstorms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there will be rather large midlevel band of fluff back to the NY border 

Yea, plowable maybe,...not death band....but be careful about a sharp cut off

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there will be rather large midlevel band of fluff back to the NY border 

That's the wild card with this one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Except January of 2015, when it porked us with only 24 hrs until go time.

True, so I changed my post to 'rarely' because you are technically correct. It choked but if you recall it kept ticking east every cycle from about 48hr in. So the writing was on the wall...most just continued to ignore it and took each run at face value. Upton was the biggest culprit too. 

[CT Rain]

Seems like the goal posts are narrowing now. I think getting >12" here is starting to get pretty tough. We're seeing a tick east with the hugged solutions and a tick west with the OTS ones.

I like 6-12" for HVN/HFD to the RI border for now. 

[EastonSN+]

So far great analysis on all 12z runs so far except UKMET which so far the analysis is "step back"

[TalcottWx]

The fact the goalposts are narrowing toward a major hit is impressive. Need to monitor 1. forward speed/stall? 2. Effects on astronomical high tide and timing. 

To me those two things are what keeps this from historic status. 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, nutmegfriar said:

I miss the good old days when threads about snowstorms were threads about snowstorms.

Everyone should be 5 ppd.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I hope that includes two towns east of ORH.

You are just NW of me (I'm near the Hopkinton/Holliston line)....your fate will be very similar to mine...so you can just wait until I get worried if you need a proxy for how good it looks there.

 

And right now, we look very good. We are potential jackpot candidates.

[hooralph]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the death band is going to be between me and ORH.

i.e. 495 belt. That warms my heart and pains me. I grew up in Acton and spent the 10 years before I left for college just hoping to sniff out 6-8" events. Did not have a single snow day in HS over 4 years.

[tavwtby]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No you are probably remember March 2018....there was the March 7-8, 2018 storm that was a huge paste bomb for a bunch of SNE and then Mar 13, 2018 was the monster that crushed eastern areas....but it did have a weenie band in far western CT/MA too.

yeah that's what it was, I think I got 11 on both of them, which minus the Jan storm were the highlight of that winter, wasn't a bad one by any means..

[EastonSN+]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Seems like the goal posts are narrowing now. I think getting >12" here is starting to get pretty tough. We're seeing a tick east with the hugged solutions and a tick west with the OTS ones.

I like 6-12" for HVN/HFD to the RI border for now. 

Sooooo close to something much much more. Would not take much to make it happen too.