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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think it was the March 2017 storm where the GFS took until like 24 or 30 hours out to finally cave...it kept tracking it over the BM while the Euro and other guidance were huggers.

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Its done that often in these events...it does not cave til 24-30 out and even then it sometimes is too east.  In this case the mesos are not quite as far west as they were in many cases I remember so maybe it won't be quite as wrong but it seems at this stage it'll be wrong on its idea vs the Euro/CMC/RGEM overall

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Trifecta (PV, northern stream and southern stream) looks better already on GFS through 24 hours....we'll see what fly shows up in the ointment later, but so far I'd expect it west of 06z

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Just got off a work call, and looking at the GFS now...man, looking at h5 I really thought it was going to improve more at the surface than it actually did. There's room for positive change there.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

Phasing perfection = SNOW
I would chase this baby without hesitation "if" my health were better. Open heart triple bypass, a half a dozen stint's in various locations, filters for clotting, arterial aortic bypass. Swear I've aged 20yrs. in the past 5. Have lost over 100lbs, legs are toothpicks, constant pain, AFib- heart rate spikes over 250 often and severe neuropathy.    
Oh, and throw in getting struck by lightning.
Youth is wasted on the young.
Everything is relative, personally if not for Meteorology I'd have gone crazy. 

I'm really "diggin" the lastest runs!     

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:53 PM, BuildingScienceWx said:

GFS still not great for WOR crowd... but the last three runs are semi-encouraging:

744141825_gfs_ref_frzn_us_fh48_trend(1).thumb.gif.e6d5c2573354b705c3805de5fc711f17.gif

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Baby steps. Maybe it's impersonating the Euro of old...takes forever to correct. If this could happen the next three cycles we'd be good. It's mazing how much time is left until go time!

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:58 PM, ROOSTA said:

Phasing perfection = SNOW
I would chase this baby without hesitation "if" my health were better. Open heart triple bypass, a half a dozen stint's in various locations, filters for clotting, arterial aortic bypass. Swear I've aged 20yrs. in the past 5. Have lost over 100lbs, legs are toothpicks, constant pain, AFib- heart rate spikes over 250 often and severe neuropathy.    
Oh, and throw in getting struck by lightning.
Youth is wasted on the young.
Everything is relative, personally if not for Meteorology I'd have gone crazy. 

I'm really "diggin" the lastest runs!     

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Hope things improve for you soon!

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

pretty much perfection -

you can't really 'expect' the models to better draft out an illustration - if you do... you really are in psychosis for expectations...

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Also the precip shield is usually west of modeled by a bit during the actual event. Pretty much most of the forum still in the game.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

I really want to pay a psychologist to read through the last 250 pages and to develop conclusions on you all.

If the GFS ends up being correct it will be a major score. But we've been saying that for 10 years and we all know how its gone.

I'm sorry that some of you won't get 2' out of this. There are always haves and have nots. Deal with it.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 3:58 PM, ROOSTA said:

Phasing perfection = SNOW
I would chase this baby without hesitation "if" my health were better. Open heart triple bypass, a half a dozen stint's in various locations, filters for clotting, arterial aortic bypass. Swear I've aged 20yrs. in the past 5. Have lost over 100lbs, legs are toothpicks, constant pain, AFib- heart rate spikes over 250 often and severe neuropathy.    
Oh, and throw in getting struck by lightning.
Youth is wasted on the young.
Everything is relative, personally if not for Meteorology I'd have gone crazy. 

I'm really "diggin" the lastest runs!     

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Always great to read your posts Don.  Life can cruel to us sometimes but finding those releases is what keeps us going.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 4:04 PM, PhineasC said:

If GGEM, UKMET stay amped and west and Euro slides west, safe to toss the GFS.

My fear is that the Euro slides to GFS and then suddenly that's a strong camp against the garbage models.

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Most folks that have been into storms and storm tracking for many years know not to factor the gfs into any big east coast snowstorm. If you simply don’t use it until the day of the storm , you will have a far better forecast and idea of final outcome. If you used it for this storm, you’d have forecast little to no snow for everyone 

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 4:04 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

I really want to pay a psychologist to read through the last 250 pages and to develop conclusions on you all.

If the GFS ends up being correct it will be a major score. But we've been saying that for 10 years and we all know how its gone.

I'm sorry that some of you won't get 2' out of this. There are always haves and have nots. Deal with it.

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I don't think the GFS can end up being correct at this point.. it shifted 100 miles from 00z to 12z.. Taunton went from 2" to 12"

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