Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

The only model that's is not in camp is the GFS.

As of 00z, agreed. But the two JV models have kept waffling. Would be nice to see them hold from 00z, where they were awesome for us.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, tavwtby said:

yeah I don't see much more than 6" wor with current guidance, just one of those, too far west for the goods, cutters like last one we were too far east, still managed about 5 before the rain began, so if we pull 5 from this here, we'll have close to 10" otg here.

I would be content if we can pull 6" in NW MA, don't care if Ray or whoever gets 26" we just need more snow otg here.

[IowaStorm05]

27 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm struggling to understand how it's weaker at all

I was wrong. Very wrong. The early frames and complaints were deceiving me. You know the Pope and Raquel Welch… those aren’t boeys. Each time I thought it was done it kept adding more. 

[tavwtby]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would be content if we can pull 6" in NW MA, don't care if Ray or whoever gets 26" we just need more snow otg here.

yeah same here... I kinda lost the monster for entire forum mentality yesterday, looked good for a while, still possible, but so is nothing I guess, not even a WWA here yet, at least last check...

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would be content if we can pull 6" in NW MA, don't care if Ray or whoever gets 26" we just need more snow otg here.

Looks like the Berks get in on some decent wraparound snows and probably some upslope with the NAM -- the upper levels looked better than 6z, but the surface didn't really reflect it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

How befitting of this season that the song if from the 80s lol

[jbenedet]

I believe the early H5 capture scenario - ~200 miles south of LI would translate to significantly more qpf in the Northern Mid Atlantic than the 12z NAM just output.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That NAM run is excellent here Luke…

We found one we can shake on...too bad its NAM

[Lava Rock]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Should we meet at your place or mine for a WNE edibles pity party?  

Had bad experience last wknd with some gummies. Took a 10mg gummie before bed thinking it would help me relax and sleep. No can do. Every time I'd shut my eyes, racing images would be going through my head. Had to open my eyes and stare at ceiling to make it stop. Duh, TCH kicking in. That was fine, until heart started racing (maybe 140bpm) for 2-3 hrs. Finally fell asleep around 2am. I was a bit panicked, but settled down and told myself I wouldn't die. 10mgs awhile back never did that, so no sure. Don't think I want to even try anymore. Juts stick to wine and beer.

[moneypitmike]

Just 6 more hours until we get another NAM solution.

[GCWarrior]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would be content if we can pull 6" in NW MA, don't care if Ray or whoever gets 26" we just need more snow otg here.

We got pretty lucky up here with the last one.  6” would make for nice skiing! 

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

The consensus is that this isn't a 10:1 type storm right?

most aren't

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah I don't see much more than 6" wor with current guidance, just one of those, too far west for the goods, cutters like last one we were too far east, still managed about 5 before the rain began, so if we pull 5 from this here, we'll have close to 10" otg here.

I managed a half inch before the rain came, so it evens out, I guess.

[PhineasC]

The GFS owes us at least one good run. Come on.

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Had bad experience last wknd with some gummies. Took a 10mg gummie before bed thinking it would help me relax and sleep. No can do. Every time I'd shut my eyes, racing images would be going through my head. Had to open my eyes and stare at ceiling to make it stop. Duh, TCH kicking in. That was fine, until heart started racing (maybe 140bpm) for 2-3 hrs. Finally fell asleep around 2am. I was a bit panicked, but settled down and told myself I wouldn't die. 10mgs awhile back never did that, so no sure. Don't think I want to even try anymore. Juts stick to wine and beer.

Small amounts were my self medication and life enhancement in my late teens early 20s. After that, the older I got the more psychotic and anxious it made me.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The GFS owes us at least one good run. Come on.

Tomorrow.

[tavwtby]

ALY.. middle approach solution, still given their likely outcome here is 7.0", that at least warrants a WWA, if not a warning, seeing all offices around have already hoisted them, we wait...

During Friday night through Saturday night, a deep upper-level
trough will become neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it
approaches the East Coast. A favorable upper-level dual-jet
structure will lead to the development and rapid intensification
of a surface low off the East Coast as it tracks north to
northeastward. There remains high confidence a coastal low will
occur, but where it actually tracks remains uncertain. Latest
model suite is split on the track with some guidance more
intense and farther west (ECMWF/CMC) and others less intense and
farther east (GFS/NAM). Only the CMC is west of the 40/70
benchmark at this time. Upon collaboration with WPC and
surrounding offices, we continue to run a `middle approach` at
this time with the higher snowfall totals south and east of
Albany with little or no snowfall farther north and west.
Regardless, a fairly `wide goalpost` of snowfall amounts are
still possible. Cold, dry air north and west of this system will
likely lead to a sharp gradient in snowfall as well. Winter
weather headlines may be needed in later updates, but there was
not enough confidence on any winter storm watches at this time.

[George001]

models are underestimating the strength of the low if anything. With the frigid arctic air meeting up with the warm gulf and Atlantic moisture, the atmosphere is primed for extreme cyclogenesis as the trough goes negatively tilted. Low closes off leading to a stall and continued deepening. We also have the wildcard, the PV energy. Right now most models aren’t showing this, but the NAM is very close to having yet another northern piece behind it diving in and phasing into the trough as the low stalls so much that it has time to catch up. If this happens, those totals we see on the nam (2-3 feet eastern mass, 1-2 feet NW) would be doubled. Even as is, there are FIVE closed contours at the 500 millibar. As Bernie Rayno talked about in his livestream, a good rule of thumb is a foot for every closed contour of the upper low. This suggests that the QPF and snow output  would likely be higher than shown. Lets see what the Euro does at 12z, if it starts trending towards the NAM, this has a very real shot of going from a “once or twice a decade” type storm to a “once or twice a millennium” type storm. That is where we are at right now, the goalposts aren’t 6-12 inches or anything like we see in normal storms, we are talking feet of snow here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That NAM run is excellent here Luke…

Yea and that means less than my kid promising he'll feed the dogs every morning. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

ALY.. middle approach solution, still given their likely outcome here is 7.0", that at least warrants a WWA, if not a warning, seeing all offices around have already hoisted them, we wait...

During Friday night through Saturday night, a deep upper-level
trough will become neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it
approaches the East Coast. A favorable upper-level dual-jet
structure will lead to the development and rapid intensification
of a surface low off the East Coast as it tracks north to
northeastward. There remains high confidence a coastal low will
occur, but where it actually tracks remains uncertain. Latest
model suite is split on the track with some guidance more
intense and farther west (ECMWF/CMC) and others less intense and
farther east (GFS/NAM). Only the CMC is west of the 40/70
benchmark at this time. Upon collaboration with WPC and
surrounding offices, we continue to run a `middle approach` at
this time with the higher snowfall totals south and east of
Albany with little or no snowfall farther north and west.
Regardless, a fairly `wide goalpost` of snowfall amounts are
still possible. Cold, dry air north and west of this system will
likely lead to a sharp gradient in snowfall as well. Winter
weather headlines may be needed in later updates, but there was
not enough confidence on any winter storm watches at this time.

went to read the BOX AFD and got this:

Array ( [0] => Sorry, we are experiencing technical forecasting difficulties. Please try back in a few minutes days. )

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

models are underestimating the strength of the low if anything. With the frigid arctic air meeting up with the warm gulf and Atlantic moisture, the atmosphere is primed for extreme cyclogenesis as the trough goes negatively tilted. Low closes off leading to a stall and continued deepening. We also have the wildcard, the PV energy. Right now most models aren’t showing this, but the NAM is very close to having yet another northern piece behind it diving in and phasing into the trough as the low stalls so much that it has time to catch up. If this happens, those totals we see on the nam (2-3 feet eastern mass, 1-2 feet NW) would be doubled. Even as is, there are FIVE closed contours at the 500 millibar. As Bernie Rayno talked about in his livestream, a good rule of thumb is a foot for every closed contour of the upper low. This suggests that the QPF and snow output  would likely be higher than shown. Lets see what the Euro does at 12z, if it starts trending towards the NAM, this has a very real shot of going from a “once or twice a decade” type storm to a “once or twice a millennium” type storm. That is where we are at right now, the goalposts aren’t 6-12 inches or anything like we see in normal storms, we are talking feet of snow here.

My mind is telling me no but my body is telling me yes

[cut]

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Had bad experience last wknd with some gummies. Took a 10mg gummie before bed thinking it would help me relax and sleep. No can do. Every time I'd shut my eyes, racing images would be going through my head. Had to open my eyes and stare at ceiling to make it stop. Duh, TCH kicking in. That was fine, until heart started racing (maybe 140bpm) for 2-3 hrs. Finally fell asleep around 2am. I was a bit panicked, but settled down and told myself I wouldn't die. 10mgs awhile back never did that, so no sure. Don't think I want to even try anymore. Juts stick to wine and beer.

Type of strain - very important.

[Cyclone-68]

More a super bomb than a bomb if NAM verifies

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

My mind is telling me no but my body is telling me yes

I don't see nothing wrong with a little contour grind

[40/70 Benchmark]

The more data I see pertaining to this, the more I feel like this is going to have like a 1/6/96 type of sharp gradient....from like 20" to 2" over 10 miles.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Should we meet at your place or mine for a WNE edibles pity party?  

Yours, MA legality ftw. 

[WeatherWilly]

Mark Searles AKA GFS hugger won't change his forecast until that model comes on board.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The more data I see pertaining to this, the more I feel like this is going to have like a 1/6/96 type of sharp gradient....from like 20" to 2" over 10 miles.

terrifying

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Had bad experience last wknd with some gummies. Took a 10mg gummie before bed thinking it would help me relax and sleep. No can do. Every time I'd shut my eyes, racing images would be going through my head. Had to open my eyes and stare at ceiling to make it stop. Duh, TCH kicking in. That was fine, until heart started racing (maybe 140bpm) for 2-3 hrs. Finally fell asleep around 2am. I was a bit panicked, but settled down and told myself I wouldn't die. 10mgs awhile back never did that, so no sure. Don't think I want to even try anymore. Juts stick to wine and beer.

Stuff makes me very anxious unless I imbibe in such low doses it doesn't really do anything.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This could also have a n shore CJ area...like Dec 2003 and Jan 2005, though the screw zones will not be nearly as pronounced.