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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, msg112469 said:

Yup. Too much emotion. They need to trust their gut based on years of experience.

I mean there were very knowledgeable posters and a few Mets here and other places bailing. Just was very surprised with how we know these things work from years of experience.  NW trends continue. Logan11 will get decent snows 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hoth said:

My guess is we stabilize here, then tickle west little by little tomorrow as this thing blows up. Just my 2 cents.

I agree. I just want the Ukie narcan map to verify :weenie: 

In all seriousness though, gotta get a map done this morning/early afternoon. Still personally thinking warning level snow back to the CT/NY border but what that looks like I’m still not quite sure. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Ten miles isn’t a big deal but for parts of CT we’re pretty sensitive to the slight shifts. I know the WOR crew would like to hang onto overnight’s “gains”. 

It was an overcorrection. Euro shifted back east already, expecting cmc and uk to sober up and tick east today as well. 

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean there were very knowledgeable posters and a few Mets here and other places bailing. Just was very surprised with how we know these things work from years of experience.  NW trends continue. Logan11 will get decent snows 

I think it’s a lot of snow PTSD. Everyone is expecting the worst to happen and even a slight hint at that sends everyone jumping off the bridge.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. I just want the Ukie narcan map to verify :weenie: 

In all seriousness though, gotta get a map done this morning/early afternoon. Still personally thinking warning level snow back to the CT/NY border but what that looks like I’m still not quite sure. 

I’m thinking 4-8” out here and 8-12” ECT with room for more there as they are in an ideal spot for deform goodies.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

"This storm is likely to strengthen at a rate, and to an intensity, equivalent to only the most powerful hurricanes, so the high-end potential of this storm cannot be overstated. But with nor'easters, like in real estate, it will all come down to location, location, location," CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said.
 

Where does CNN get these guys? :blink:

The larger question is...why are you even watching cnn? Train wreck thing? Garbage media at its finest

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted

7:10 BOX DISCUSSION:

Details... Friday night through Saturday night... ***A Strong Winter Storm will impact southern New England Saturday*** After a jog east with the 12Z/18Z guidance yesterday, this evening`s 00Z models have ticked back west; a windshield wiper effect we often see in computer models leading up to these events and why you don`t want to hang your hat on one deterministic model run. This remains a decidedly chaotic forecast with decent run-to-run consistency in some models/ensembles, but large model-to-model discrepancies. One of the biggest struggles is how to resolve the upper air pattern with northern and southern stream energy that may phase leading to a more volatile system. The biggest outlier is the GFS which continues to depict a track well southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, while the NAM/Canadian/ECMWF are further northwest (if much slower, in the NAM`s case). For now the forecast continues to go with a blend of guidance, more or less in line with the ECMWF run which is a compromise between the GFS east and UKMET west. Ultimately the evolution of the parent 500 mb trough that digs into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night and Saturday will help to determine the track of the surface low. Confidence is high that this low will strengthen rapidly as it moves up the east coast, likely undergoing bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This will bring the threat for significant snow, potentially damaging winds, and coastal flooding. Thinking this morning is that the significant snowfall threat will be centered over southeast Massachusetts, diminishing to the northwest. Given QPF of nearly 1.5 inches toward eastern MA and a cold column leading to snow-to-liquid ratios greater than 10:1, snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches are possible; greater beneath any deformation band that sets up somewhere northwest of the low. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for eastern and central MA as well as eastern CT; this is where we have the highest confidence of significant snowfall. Strong, potentially damaging winds are also a significant hazard with this system given a 60 to 70 kt low level jet overhead thanks to the explosive deepening of the low. Bufkit soundings indicate a well mixed boundary layer, up to 850 mb on the southeast coast Saturday and Saturday night. The strongest winds will be over Cape Cod and the islands. Coastal flooding is the final threat we`re concerned about. This would be during both high tide cycles on Saturday, but moreso in the evening. Though the astronomical tide is higher in the morning, winds and seas won`t fully ramp up until later. Thus, we continue to expect a 1-2 ft surge leading to minor coastal flooding on the east coast Saturday morning. For the evening high tide that surge will be more like 3+ ft. Factoring in the 20-25 ft seas just offshore, widespread minor coastal flooding is likely with pockets of moderate. Again, timing will be crucial for us to realize this upper end of flooding potential, if the max surge can coincide with the high tide.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I think it’s a lot of snow PTSD. Everyone is expecting the worst to happen and even a slight hint at that sends everyone jumping off the bridge.

Yeah it was a lot of that and just a lot of emotional folks last nite. Sometimes emotions get the better of them. Weather is very emotional 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m thinking 4-8” out here and 8-12” ECT with room for more there as they are in an ideal spot for deform goodies.

I don’t think that’s unreasonable. I’m a little higher personally, probably 8-12 out there. Not sure what our map will look like though. As long as it’s not a gfs abomination track I see good banding setting up well west of the center. 

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m thinking 4-8” out here and 8-12” ECT with room for more there as they are in an ideal spot for deform goodies.

I think that's a very reasonable estimate. It'll be interesting to see if we get any more tics west throughout the day. Meanwhile we can watch the cnn (and others) blizzard coverage...GARBAGE

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

You’ve effortlessly slid into the role of TBlizz lol for this one but I get it, you’re pretty far west and have seen some heartbreakers. 

The euro sliding east yesterday up until 18z when it ticked nw was frustrating, shades of Jan15. But 0z and 6z euro went right back to east slides so it’s logical to think 0z uk and cmc are too west. We’ll need better s stream interaction to tug this nw today with less confluence above. We can’t afford a ‘this looks better but that doesn’t’ pbp. 

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