Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:45 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous

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they went east

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:45 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous

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Nope they already came out and were awful. 

[dryslot]

Just looking at the surface maps on the Ukie/GGEM and that low is in the same position off of CQX

[Henry's Weather]

Lol, people (myself included) rushing to take the rare opportunity to correct tip

[CCHurricane]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:41 AM, 8611Blizz said:

FWIW Bouchard did mention to not get caught up in the model mayhem. Taht said he is also dropping the chances for anyone to get 2'.  He also pushed the start of heavy snow back from earlier today.

 

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No disrespect to Bouchard, but I've found him to be perennially under-appreciate snowfall totals.

He whiffed big earlier this year with our first storm here in Boston and I'll never forgive his 12-18 inches for Cape Cod in Jan 2005 blizzard. Ha!

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Holy moly UK.

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That tickle your weenie Luke? …Enough qpf there for all of us. A crushing for sure. 

[JKEisMan]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:30 AM, CT Rain said:

I showed the NWS 10th/90th percentile forecasts. First time I've ever done that lol

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BTW, Ryan, great description of ensembles yesterday evening -- I even rewound it to show my wife who wasn't paying attention at first.  I use ensemble predictions all the time in my own research, so nice to see you educating the public!

[CT Rain]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:37 AM, WinterWolf said:

I thought it was a very honest and informative description as to what’s been actually happening with this thing, for the general public who aren’t aware of the goings on with this. Nice job imo. 

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Thanks yeah. I didn’t want to show the same stuff I’ve been showing. Figured it was a different way to express the uncertainty which is definitely higher than normal. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, dryslot said:

Just looking at the surface maps on the Ukie/GGEM and that low is in the same position off of CQX

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pretty much exact and they crush  if the Euro holds its game on

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, dryslot said:

Just looking at the surface maps on the Ukie/GGEM and that low is in the same position off of CQX

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I think Euro will look similar 

[jcwxguy]

[CT Rain]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, JKEisMan said:

BTW, Ryan, great description of ensembles yesterday evening -- I even rewound it to show my wife who wasn't paying attention at first.  I use ensemble predictions all the time in my own research, so nice to see you educating the public!

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Appreciate it! Been a weird storm to communicate but feel like we can still provide context/value that you can’t get on an app. 

[Typhoon Tip]

What a mind f*!k

I mean it’s not just funny… When you get into 20 inches of snow and 50 mile an hour wind gusts and Ts the teens you got to get that shit right. That’s the difference between like the UKM the GGEM and the EURO versus the GFS. Shit even the icon is west. And we’re going to France approve it they are too!

[8611Blizz]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, CCHurricane said:

No disrespect to Bouchard, but I've found him to be perennially under-appreciate snowfall totals.

He whiffed big earlier this year with our first storm here in Boston and I'll never forgive his 12-18 inches for Cape Cod in 2005. Ha!

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He really does try to downplay snow totals but he is very much a river boat gambler with his forecasts. Very much likes to be contrarian .

[The 4 Seasons]

Good thing Kevins sleepin' thats all ima say.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Nope they already came out and were awful. 

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Yeah edited that. 

[PhineasC]

The UKMET brings immense pleasure and grotesque pain every six hours. What a model it is.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, WinterWolf said:

That tickle your weenie Luke? …Enough qpf there for all of us. A crushing for sure. 

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It did, briefly. Let’s see if one set of cycle runs that came nw are real though. This could be an over correction. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:49 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Good thing Kevins sleepin' thats all ima say.

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Kevin is an old man

Forgive him 

[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:47 AM, Henry's Weather said:

Lol, people (myself included) rushing to take the rare opportunity to correct tip

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He lost ownership of the thread when he failed to stop the east trend. The weenies are in control now. 

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:49 AM, jcwxguy said:

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This will verify for the simple reason that it has the RI screw hole. 

  

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:49 AM, jcwxguy said:

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That RI hole has been on a few runs...imagine if Cory came home and that happened

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss him, he blows 

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Go with Harvey

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:49 AM, jcwxguy said:

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Don’t let the accordion set that.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:51 AM, PhineasC said:

He lost ownership of the thread when he failed to stop the east trend. The weenies are in control now. 

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Weenies of the world unite!

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:50 AM, PhineasC said:

The UKMET brings immense pleasure and grotesque pain every six hours. What a model it is.

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It is like a beautiful girlfriend, who you are then forced to marry.  

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That RI hole has been on a few runs...imagine of Cory came home and that happened

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Even when he wins, he loses. RI is a rough place to live.

[8611Blizz]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:52 AM, DavisStraight said:

Go with Harvey

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I watch them all. It's something I've been doing since the 70's

[Ginx snewx]

So I took all day in this cold weather to build a shed for my new generator. What did I miss lol. Save a horse kids.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:50 AM, PhineasC said:

The UKMET brings immense pleasure and grotesque pain every six hours. What a model it is.

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And yet it somehow routinely scores highly. 
- bizarre