Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WeatherWilly]

Throw it out.

[8611Blizz]

Jesus if this thing misses.....

 

[wxsniss]

Terrible run and can't dismiss this

0z Euro is critical

[Hoth]

Don't care, still say the GFS sucks with these systems. I'll issue a full mea culpa in two days if I'm wrong and it nails it.

[weathafella]

  On 1/27/2022 at 3:56 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Is it showing a miss or glance?

 

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For us- advisory.

[bishbish777]

I'm relatively new to the NE area. Which model traditionally handles these coastals the best? It's really strange for me to see the big differences in the models two days out.

[WxWatcher007]

One of these models is going to have an all time bust if this divergence keep up..yikes

[dryslot]

Crushes DE Maine, Congrats Eastport

[STILL N OF PIKE]

O great pos gf’s ticks East . Never really trust it with miller A cyclogenesis but a tickle west would have been good . Nope 

[8611Blizz]

Need to return all that bagged de-icer...

[HalloweenGale]

  On 1/27/2022 at 3:57 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

3” for the Cape lol.

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Not worth it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/27/2022 at 3:58 AM, bishbish777 said:

I'm relatively new to the NE area. Which model traditionally handles these coastals the best? It's really strange for me to see the big differences in the models two days out.

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Kuro 

its runs literally at 5am

[weatherwiz]

Not even sure what to make of this run. The upper-level look was pretty ugly. Guess just have to wait and see what the GEFS show. If the mean is east or there is more east members that might give some merit to this run but if mean is west or more west members this can maybe be tossed. 

[8611Blizz]

Some mets on TV tonight are going to have a shit fit.

 

[MJO812]

  On 1/27/2022 at 3:58 AM, Hoth said:

Don't care, still say the GFS sucks with these systems. I'll issue a full mea culpa in two days if I'm wrong and it nails it.

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Gfs always does this with coastal storms

[JC-CT]

 

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:00 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Kuro 

its runs literally at 5am

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and all of its model output is produced backwards and upside down

[bishbish777]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:00 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Kuro 

its runs literally at 5am

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I wish I could say I understand..

[78Blizzard]

NAM had its burp run at 18Z.  The GFS has had it at 0z.  At hr 60 and hr 63, they were 500 miles apart.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:01 AM, bishbish777 said:

I wish I could say I understand..

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kevin. he runs.

 

[OceanStWx]

Just gets the mid levels going way too late. Like closing things off near or north of the Cape.

[8611Blizz]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:00 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Kuro 

its runs literally at 5am

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post of the year nominee right there!!

[Heat Miser]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:00 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Some mets on TV tonight are going to have a shit fit.

 

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[IowaStorm05]

It still backs modest heavy snow into the cape and ESE mass. The GFS has more clout than the erratic long range of NAM, yet at the same time I dont see this run as an insurmountable obstacle given how its behavior offends. I get the feeling it is just "mishandling" bomb. 

[George001]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:00 AM, MJO812 said:

Gfs always does this with coastal storms

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Yep. In the Dec 2020 storm it had Philly and NYC on the northern fringe like 2 days out. The low ended up so far west that it mixed and changed to rain in Philly and mixed in NYC as well (still got 10 inches or so before the changeover). 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:01 AM, OceanStWx said:

Just gets the mid levels going way too late. Like closing things off near or north of the Cape.

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Was that a function of S stream dragging more

[40/70 Benchmark]

Harv talking it up again...moved for line back from me to ORH, andcmentioned up to 2' potential. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just for the fun of pig piling the GFS even more … 00z JMA is pretty close to flawless

[JC-CT]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Harv talking it up again...moved for line back from me to ORH, andcmentioned up to 2' potential. 

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must have gotten the pre-release of the ggem

[George001]

LETS ****ING GO THE CANADIAN HAD A MASSIVE SHIFT WEST!!!! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/27/2022 at 4:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Harv talking ir up again...moved for line back from me to ORH, andcmentioned up to 2' potential. 

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Riding euro? What changed in his opinion 

Did he chat with a met friend outside fox hall