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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:24 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

No way. But it’s prudent to not give up 3 days out because a few models are a miss. I know you know this. Just was surprised to see today. And sure.. those folks might be right 

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Fair enough, you right. Jan15 haunts us out here so it’s been tough to avoid the similarities. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:27 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fair enough, you right. Jan15 haunts us out here so it’s been tough to avoid the similarities. 

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No qualms there . I recall that sharp cutoff vividly . 6” west of HFD and sun by mid morning while you guys looked east and saw a wall of white. I recall talking to my pops in New Milford and he could not believe what I was reporting . I don’t think this will be like that at all 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:25 AM, CoastalWx said:

If we can make this an all out love, we pray. It’s more fun when all are involved. It’s hard witj our geography, but hopefully we all can get something. 

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A Euro solution seems to do it. Some GGEM runs did too. This GFS crap of the last couple days has to be dumped at 00z.

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:29 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm tired of the whining/bitching.  Act like and adult and you've seen snow or missed a snowstorm before.

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  On 1/27/2022 at 1:31 AM, Connecticut Appleman said:

The EPS is not quitting when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_ge_12-3544000.png

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The who did what?

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:11 AM, FXWX said:

And a very impressive cluster shifting west.  

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That's the key...clusters.  The mean is meaningless, it doesn't mean shit...bad puns but you get the point.  If you don't believe me, Google the Golden Mean Fallacy.

For God's sake, the mean incorporates a member 25 miles south of Newfoundland!

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:30 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

No qualms there . I recall that sharp cutoff vividly . 6” west of HFD and sun by mid morning while you guys looked east and saw a wall of white. I recall talking to my pops in New Milford and he could not believe what I was reporting . I don’t think this will be like that at all 

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I was in Shelton then and yup, woke up to sunny skies and birds chirping. So I took a drive up the merritt and as I got close to 91 you can see the wall of white like a thunderstorm in the summer. I Continued the drive to my job in Manchester and just stayed in the parking lot for a few hours, got stoned… walked around, etc. it was a cool experience but when you return home to a sandy 6” with the sun shining and the asphalt glistening, it was deflating.

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cut

cut

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 12:16 AM, weatherwiz said:

The freakouts are getting a bit ridiculous. This is still really 2.5+ days away. I know it seems plausible to want to see such strong agreement and consistency but the truth of the matter is we're still within the time frame where subtle differences are going to occur. Forgetting about these east vs. west swings, at the end of the day, we're not asking for significant changes here. For things to come together and be a very high-impact event for most...it's not like a ton has to happen for that to happen. There is a difference in needing drastic or substantial changes and very subtle. 

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Like 100 miles west and it’s a massive difference. I think I saw Tip say earlier that at this lead time the envelope is like 150 to 200 miles - granted that was after the 12z so let’s say 120 to 180 now.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:31 AM, Johnno said:

Ugh Geoff Fox, I don’t think any CT met ever hated winter as much 

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Fun fact, he rode the Navy model one time on air for Mar 4-6 2001 when it was the only model showing virtually no snow and was progressive. I remember verbatim he said "it just spins up a couple inches and scoots outta here fast"

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 1/27/2022 at 1:29 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm tired of the whining/bitching.  Act like an adult and you've seen snow or missed a snowstorm before.

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:lol: Not going to lie that’s what makes it even better coming from the TAN crowd.  We’d think you guys would be able to sympathize with many other posters.

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