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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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Really amazing to see the major differences between the Euro and the other major models at such a short lead time. Truthfully, the differences are probably not so big, but small shifts are leading to huge differences in outcome at this juncture. Should be really exciting next few days..

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's what I love with bufkit...the cobb11. Seems to do pretty well with ratios. Although sometimes I think maybe slightly overdone but usually I'll just go with a few ticks below what it's output is (depending on the situation)

I mostly stick to the Cobb on there too.

Locally (PWM) it looks like the EPS has been steadily trending lower with QPF for the last 5 runs. 90th percentile only changed about 3 inches (17 to 14 inches give or take), but the 10th percentile (basically expect at least that much) went from 5 inches to 0. Shows you how the lead pipe lock has been taken off the table.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ensemble members have been consistently west of the mean, Now its time for the OP to show its cards.

I admit the eps has had left leaners for days which was a big reason for our optimism but it hasn’t propagated to the op yet, outside of the 0z run from two nights ago.

 

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

0.5 qpf gets all the way to the nw nyc suburbs...I think if it verified, that would be a pretty decent snowfall for you.

I try to take one run at face value but the trends instead. So far, 18z euro is just a blip within the east trends. If 0z ticks nw some and others tick too, then we have something. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

:lol:

I was a senior in HS for that so I'll take your word on that. That's like the dinosaur age of modeling.

It's funny, I remember Brad field mentioning on the 6 pm news days before the storm that one of the lesser relied upon models,  he said the Japanese model, is showing a blizzard..all  on it's own.

IMO, he was an excellent met. 

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48 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.6de103105d4bcb8936bd4639eed25576.pngThe 18z gfs is slower and more west with the energy that eventually gets buried out west. To my untrained eye (mets here, correct me if I am wrong) it looks like the energy is digging faster and is farther east. In my opinion this tells me gfs and nam are wrong with burying the energy. 
 

edit- not my map

Is this a Van Gogh?

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58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol yea and also, his words, not mine: “I can’t even remember how many 20+ events I have had the last 10yrs, too many to list.”

Its true though, he isn't exaggerating.... furthermore he has had piles of cute but potent smaller events (quick 2 to 4 plus) that have seemingly come out of nowhere for his area....He is the Savoy or Florida mass of the south coast

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3 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

It's funny, I remember Brad field mentioning on the 6 pm news days before the storm that one of the lesser relied upon models,  he said the Japanese model, is showing a blizzard..all  on it's own.

IMO, he was an excellent met. 

True. I remember that.  

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I try to take one run at face value but the trends instead. So far, 18z euro is just a blip within the east trends. If 0z ticks nw some and others tick too, then we have something. 

Not saying you specifically (maybe? I dont know) but part of the problem is that people include really crappy, unreliable models in their determination of what the trend is. The ICON and NAM have no business being factored into anything. They should be ignored - seriously. GFS and CMC suites weren't great today. UKMET kind of stinks with coastals but actually came west from 0z. Euro was really far west this morning and came back east some at 12z, but it just held serve (and more importantly, even slightly reversed the trend out in the southwest - hopefully a sign of stabilization).

BOX AFD pretty much covers it...some east shift today, but still lots to be figured out.

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