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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It came back down 

If we can’t get real winter here, I’m totally on board with nuclear winter :lol: 

Seriously though, I agree. Not sure how some of these folks are able to walk upright with Cottonelle soft backbones. Winter is the worst around here.

Ok, that’s all the complaining I’ll do lol. Still think we get a significant warning level event for the entire state. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ScituateWX said:

Weenie question.  When looking at snowfall maps (which I know should be taken with a grain of salt) what is meant by the kuchera ratio that folks have been posting and talking about?  Thanks!

“I basically manually curve-fit data from various snow events I was aware of around that time [2004] until I was happy with it. Of note, the bifurcation at 271.16 K was to try to account for melting effects after the snow was on the ground for warmer events. So I really was trying to aim at the storm total snowfall that a COOP observer or member of the public would measure, not a pure, by-the-book snowfall properly measured and cleared from a snow board.” — Evan Kuchera

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Weenie question.  When looking at snowfall maps (which I know should be taken with a grain of salt) what is meant by the kuchera ratio that folks have been posting and talking about?  Thanks!

In laymens terms, to me, it means the model takes into account the atmospheric conditions to try and figure out what the snow accums will be based on the water content likely in said conditions rather than just basing it on a generic 10:1 ratio

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Patrick-02540

Patrick-02540

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

Was that the 18z spider or the 12z spider?

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

"Beyond Computation: The Reintroduction of Magical Thinking to Meteorological Pursuits"

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

I've never met Wiz in person. Is he like covered in webs?

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

Only if you let it crawl in bed with you so your call to which way you want this storm to go.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

“I basically manually curve-fit data from various snow events I was aware of around that time [2004] until I was happy with it. Of note, the bifurcation at 271.16 K was to try to account for melting effects after the snow was on the ground for warmer events. So I really was trying to aim at the storm total snowfall that a COOP observer or member of the public would measure, not a pure, by-the-book snowfall properly measured and cleared from a snow board.” — Evan Kuchera

It's honestly fine near freezing, it will melt your face off when the temps are cold. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Can anyone tell me why the Kuchera is used and if it's ever actually verified? 

It's an attempt to estimate ratios using temps.

This is the Kuchera algorithm via Earl Barker...

Quote 
1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in 
degrees K (MAXTMP)
2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid 
equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid 
equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)

 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

I feel the same way with this setup.  Ensm have been the way to go up till now I feel.  The 00z runs should shake this out and determine if whatever was ingested into the 18z NCEP is real or not.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, George001 said:

now watch things somehow get really crazy at 0z, imagine if the Canadian has a blizzard, Euro has an inland runner and the low just….. disappears on the Nam. Not out to sea, not weaker, but literally not having a low, just a cold front or something. 

I want a snow map. Do not forget the US virgin islands 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

It also saved you guys from locking the thread and starting over.

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