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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I just see no reason to melt when all we really don't have much more information than 12 hours ago or will 12 hours from now. 

Oh I never said they looked good! They just improved from 12z. :lol:

Oh look another met telling you there is no reason to melt. Bet you will anyway. @TauntonBlizzard2013

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I was thinking about this on the drive home. Hasn't there been a tendency this year for models wanting to hold back energy into the southwest? Completely different season and all but I remember many convective events where there was potential for you're higher end severe setups but there was always hesitancy from the SPC to go higher probs in the D3-8 range b/c of the models holding back energy in the southwest...but as we got within 2-3 days all of a sudden models sped up energy. I think this was the case too even with the December outbreak and also with several systems that have traversed the south in the fall and even winter. This is just based on memory so there may be some data to debunk this.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d feel good in E Ma still.
 

For central areas it’s pucker time…

For western areas you just gave up the go ahead TD with 13 seconds left. Better hope Mahomes shows up at 00z. 

How do we feel about handing the ball to Garoppolo? :lol:

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I almost took the bait on this one. What bothered me was when this stepped away from a more southern low (classic Miller A) a few days ago couple with no blocking. I am so snake bitten by lows developing offshore then being captured and tugged N or NNW ( it just is rare that it happens and has the power to drive heavy snows back WOR. )

It was so exciting for awhile to hear the jubilee surrounding effects of a monster storm etc. All the trustable members were on board. Ginxy's excitement was intoxicating.

The euro has been reading too many Ray Bradbury stories the past few years and just cannot be trusted

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Someone mentioned a while back about the NAM continuity issues ... haha.  Like we expected otherwise but, it literally went from historic, to 0, in one run cycle.

No exaggeration.

30"

0"

...yeah, I'd call that a problem with continuity

Time to retire the NAM.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d feel good in E Ma still.
 

For central areas it’s pucker time…

For western areas you just gave up the go ahead TD with 13 seconds left. Better hope Mahomes shows up at 00z. 

"few inches for the cape" at 00z confirmed, folks. :( 

That's what comes after "I would still feel good" at xyz location.

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