Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea,  well....decide how great it is later tonight. Unreal....of course, the MLK deal locked right on when they shit went west. If this fails, I am out on this season completely.

Ditto. 
 

We called the UK drunk but it clearly was trying to tell us something. EMA should still salvage a good storm though. 

[PhineasC]

This thing isn’t coming back. Maybe ORH can squeeze a few inches. 

[Brian5671]

if this comes back it would be a Boxing day type miracle but that one had blocking.  +NAO/+AO here.   

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah it seemed as if the spread decreased quite a bit on the 18z GEFS. I probably wouldn't have minded seeing more spread/uncertainty given how crappy they are now.

Good thing they are typically under-dispersive. Aside from the more hi-res stuff, all the models clearly ingested up on something today and moved as a result. Now recon starts tonight and satellite retrieval of the northern stream should be better by tomorrow, but if it's still meh at 12z I'm ready to just accept an advisory event to ruin a run at futility.

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

24 hours from now when a huge hit is imminent as they all continue west. The last 12 hours of hundreds of melts and no snow calls we’ve seen today are going to be pretty fun to bump . 

Although I have given up on this storm, I will be the first one to jump back on the bandwagon and I will eat crow LOL

[78Blizzard]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

SE MA will soon be outside looking in too probably. Still room to slide right. The good snow zone is already very narrow. 

LOL.  Box map has them raining/sleeting down on parts of the Cape.

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Look for a place on George’s bank 

Maybe St Johns

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Good thing they are typically under-dispersive. Aside from the more hi-res stuff, all the models clearly ingested up on something today and moved as a result. Now recon starts tonight and satellite retrieval of the northern stream should be better by tomorrow, but if it's still meh at 12z I'm ready to just accept an advisory event to ruin a run at futility.

Yeah. If you look at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS there's still a lot of spread here. The EPS is definitely a western outlier.

They're all underdispersive but when taken together you can get somewhere.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crazy that the NAM has zero snow in SNE still by 21z on Saturday.

I was just noticing - my take ... - on this 18z NAM solution ( didn't have a chance to see it prior - ), the reason for this bump east is literally because it is getting bumped east.

This isn't because of failed s/stream absorption, but look near Lake Winnip.west of Superior area of S Canada at after 72 hours in this run, and compare it to the same time intervals off the 12z.  

That is a huge difference in that kicker momentum. It's really obtruding a new n/stream S/W momentum into this.  Any more so and the model would have 86'ed our storm altogether. 

Not sure that new N stream bully is real - have to trace back and see if we can identify where that is coming from. The prior run did have a wave there but it was too week to neg interfere the way this run is just did.

[IowaStorm05]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is demonstrably false. Each new model run is on average more accurate than the last when inside 3 days. Now beyond that models in general just aren't THAT good at nailing down outcomes.

So the 00z and 12z dont have access to more information in their calculations than 06 and 18? I do understand that it gets easier and more accurate to predict as you get closer overall but I was under the impression that 00z and 12z are a bigger deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ditto. 
 

We called the UK drunk but it clearly was trying to tell us something. EMA should still salvage a good storm though. 

I have no interest in 6", at this point...the ocean can keep it.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Good thing they are typically under-dispersive. Aside from the more hi-res stuff, all the models clearly ingested up on something today and moved as a result. Now recon starts tonight and satellite retrieval of the northern stream should be better by tomorrow, but if it's still meh at 12z I'm ready to just accept an advisory event to ruin a run at futility.

When they ingest satellite data, are they using more than just GOES-EAST and WEST?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha I have zero horse in the race but we go over this once in a while… when you seem to just read the model trends wrong.

It doesn’t mean anyone who says the RGEM ticked east means they think you won’t get snow.  It just means it ticked east .

Its an 84 hour 18z RGEM run. Who cares.

The decided consensus here today is the big storm is missing . Read the last 30 pages . Mets and others try to show why that’s not the case . I’m still on board for nice snow storm as I had said in my first call an hour or two ago .  You don’t bail because a few models shifted east 3 days out 

[Brian5671]

nightmares of Jan 2015 fooled again by the Euro and Nam

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Good thing they are typically under-dispersive. Aside from the more hi-res stuff, all the models clearly ingested up on something today and moved as a result. Now recon starts tonight and satellite retrieval of the northern stream should be better by tomorrow, but if it's still meh at 12z I'm ready to just accept an advisory event to ruin a run at futility.

i don't believe it was a coincidence that it happened right as the shortwave started to come into the BC upper air sites.

[SnowGoose69]

I pointed this out in the NYC forum a few days ago but the 500mb pattern over the US is so darn similar to February 24 1989...the storm evolution itself is not and is way more dynamic but the track may be pretty darn similar.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have no interest in 6", at this point...the ocean can keep it.

I’ll be YOU a beer now if you don’t hit 10”. lol

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So the 00z and 12z dont have access to more information in their calculations than 06 and 18? I do understand that it gets easier and more accurate to predict as you get closer overall but I was under the impression that 00z and 12z are a bigger deal.

the 6 hours is way more important at this time frame. once you get out into the clown range, it matters more.

[NotSureWeather]

Do you guys not like Ryan Hall? Feel like he is pretty good for someone who is trying to get views and likes on the tube. He does a decent job of managing expectations and not going full hype train on things.

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So the 00z and 12z dont have access to more information in their calculations than 06 and 18? I do understand that it gets easier and more accurate to predict as you get closer overall but I was under the impression that 00z and 12z are a bigger deal.

They used to be, but satellite retrieval techniques and aircraft obs have significantly improved over time. There was a time when 12z might beat 18z consistently, but now that's just not the case. 18z is almost always more accurate than 12z. Again that's for closer range forecasts, as beyond days 3/4 all models are a bit of an unmanned firehose.

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

When they ingest satellite data, are they using more than just GOES-EAST and WEST?

Not 100% sure, but I believe so. 

[George001]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sorry I guess the models didn't get your memo of a huge blizzard.

Euro gives me 3 feet. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

nightmares of Jan 2015 fooled again by the Euro and Nam

We warned the WOR this was going east so we was prepared. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll be YOU a beer now if you don’t hit 10”. lol

I'm not predicting 6" here...just saying

[Brian5671]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We warned the WOR this was going east so we was prepared. 

it's tough when you're relying on a capture...usually happens further N and E than expected.   The good news is we are 2 days out instead of 6 hrs.

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

They used to be, but satellite retrieval techniques and aircraft obs have significantly improved over time. There was a time when 12z might beat 18z consistently, but now that's just not the case. 18z is almost always more accurate than 12z. Again that's for closer range forecasts, as beyond days 3/4 all models are a bit of an unmanned firehose.

Not 100% sure, but I believe so. 

I'm pretty sure I read that there is an international data share for observations

[Damage In Tolland]

This GD place sometimes. 

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We warned the WOR this was going east so we was prepared. 

And thank you for that.  I have no illusions.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This GD place sometimes. 

Nice melt

[CT Valley Dryslot]

If Josh were admin he'd lock this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This GD place sometimes. 

If 00z continues,  we need to bail.