Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Might be good to have some Crown handy if you're going to be on here tonight.

I have my Tito's available if need be.

[CoastalWx]

I've seen biggies leave at this stage before, that said, NAM likely will not happen. That seems classic, only to correct a bit at 00z.

[HalloweenGale]

Feb '89 vibes.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

8 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

A boat on the benchmark.


.

I've been 75 miles off Chatham before in a fishing boat. It's amazing. With no land in sight the ocean swells look like hills and valleys.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I've seen biggies leave at this stage before, that said, NAM likely will not happen. That seems classic, only to correct a bit at 00z.

I’m guessing it’s not going over New Bedford at this point?

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe this is the period where the models lose the storm and then bring it back later.

That's usually day 4-5.

[butterfish55]

Cory just insured the storm comes back at 0z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I've seen biggies leave at this stage before, that said, NAM likely will not happen. That seems classic, only to correct a bit at 00z.

This is also why tracking these threats for 2 weeks is ultimately a losing game.

Its totally conceivable at this lead that models bail on the threat, and it’s really not even bad model performance 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is also why tracking these threats for 2 weeks is ultimately a losing game.

Its totally conceivable at this lead that models bail on the threat, and it’s really not even bad model performance 

This is why I said wait until this aftn. And of course, now the waters got muddy.

[Lava Rock]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think this is Wiz's first winter melt.  Welcome to the club.

Not just them.  A whole bunch of people will.  Lots of 'boy who cried wolf' scenarios.

I really won't be surprised this is a whiff. Between piss poor models and days of hyping and the general crappy snow tenor of this winter so far, I just kinda laugh at this point. Just bring the cutter and 50F and pull the damn band aid off already. The cold has been nice and I'll give Jan an A- in that dept.

[brooklynwx99]

the RGEM actually looks improved with both the southern and northern vorts, as it progresses the S piece faster and it has the N piece more meridionally oriented. would lead to a cleaner phase

didn't translate to the surface, but that's not very important

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've seen biggies leave at this stage before, that said, NAM likely will not happen. That seems classic, only to correct a bit at 00z.

Ya, even if this whiffed for most, it certainly would not be an unprecedented fail.  It happens when you start tracking hypothetical storm scenarios a week in advance. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, butterfish55 said:

Cory just insured the storm comes back at 0z

Has he packed the accordian for a road trip to Brattleboro?

[tavwtby]

ALY has high end 18" and low end of like 0", with likely 8, quite the range there...

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is actually a little faster with southern stream through 24h. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the RGEM actually looks improved with both the southern and northern vorts, as it progresses the S piece faster and it has the N piece more meridionally oriented. would lead to a cleaner phase

didn't translate to the surface, but that's not very important

I will be in a plane Saturday and let you know how it is working out at 5K. 

[wxsniss]

Thru 39h, 18z GFS looks like it will be better than 12z... southern energy dragging less, northern energy more robust, trough structure more favorable 

[TalcottWx]

It's. The. Nam. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is actually a little faster with southern stream through 24h. 

was going to post its looking a little better but didnt want to ginx it

[Sn0waddict]

I think the GFS is holding back a little less energy so far?  Would be nice to at the very least stop the bleeding.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why I said wait until this aftn. And of course, now the waters got muddy.

Rug pull right on schedule I guess then 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is improved with both pieces in the same way as the RGEM

[tiger_deF]

If the 0z models are as bad or worse than the 18z and 12z I'm seriously going to lose my shit. It's my fault for getting so invested, but I've convinced half the block we're in for a big one

[ineedsnow]

GFS might bring some back looking at hr 42

[TalcottWx]

11 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Wait wait wait Waaaait.  

 

You guys have been hyping this up to be like the grand puba's of 2005, 2013, 2015.... and I NEED TO GET HOME.....

 

And I'm projected to be 9"-16"????  With confidence Getting Lower by the run?  Baaahahaha.  OK.  I'll be in LA.  

Your neck must hurt from the whiplash 

[weathafella]

One of the biggest problems is the fact that NAM/ICON are early especially when NAM is on clown range.  People react (including me).   A world about long tracking-I enjoy it immensely storm or no storm.  If your emotions can’t handle the possibility of losing it you may want to stay out of it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS a little quicker with that energy over the four corners at 0z Friday.

[CoastalWx]

You guys should not ignore the PV in Canada also pressing south. That is having an effect.

[bristolri_wx]

12 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Wait wait wait Waaaait.  

 

You guys have been hyping this up to be like the grand puba's of 2005, 2013, 2015.... and I NEED TO GET HOME.....

 

And I'm projected to be 9"-16"????  With confidence Getting Lower by the run?  Baaahahaha.  OK.  I'll be in LA.  

Thanks for locking in a KU for us by staying in LA 

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Cory just insured the storm comes back at 0z

He'll be performing at that concert with tears streaming down his face as N RI sees 30“