Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No sugar coating that run. Nothing redeeming about that. Hopefully that’s not something be ingested into the 18z models we’re going to see larger changes in other models 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now. 

I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it.

[weathafella]

Love the run to run continuity on the NAM-always have.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Are we allowed to sweat all the other models already that nearly whiff us here yet?

You should be drinking pedialyte right now

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Love the run to run continuity on the NAM-always have.

Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though.

[JC-CT]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:00 PM, JC-CT said:

And it's only Wednesday

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though.

Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No one should be sweatin nammy synoptics this far out.

Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling 

[RDRY]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The high shifted way south on this run

Probably shifted south along with the low. Same reason the midwest low shifted south and east from previous run.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling 

very weird, since they are completely different

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

In the immortal words of Jack Buck... "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW!"

That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it.

gotcha...yeah that's certainly different than the above reference. I feel like it's impossible to really know ahead of time the merit in this. I think we have seen instances before where such a scenario did actually occur. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling 

The GFS could be close to correct. Euro/GFS compromise is still good for most. 

[SnoSki14]

In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. 

[cut]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just saw the 18z NAM

What's to stop this from going even FURTHER east! 

 

I am recalling Tips -"stretching the X Axis" description from a few days ago - WE STRETCH!!! God damn it we stretch!!!

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though.

Which run?   What if it’s a Rainer next run?   So yes that can be said for any solution but unless the whole suite does this I don’t have much confidence in any one NAM output 

[IowaStorm05]

I dont like what I see going on right now. Strong consensus early, and me scoffing at excitement on monday, becoming a believer by last might 00z, seeing media folks go nuts and now seeing complete model schizophrenia. It would mess with a lot of peoples heads including my own to lose this. It isnt common to have strong early consensus go awry inside 72h. This is not 2002.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. 

Maybe I won't have to cancel my tee time.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. 

In one run 6 hours apart from NAM

[shawnmov]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS 

Vin did the TV call.  Jack Buck radio:  

 

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON looks like it will be east of 12z and it was already pretty far east at 12z

[weathafella]

Soon enough we’ll find out if it’s a burp.

[ineedsnow]

ICON way east

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON looks like it will be east of 12z and it was already pretty far east at 12z

It is.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS 

It was Buck

 

[moneypitmike]

By my arithmetic--the p/c here is going with 7-13".  Of note, the POP's have lowered from earlier.

Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

[Brian5671]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ICON way east

wow just crazy.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is.

I’m not saying it’s definitely right, but as the first piece of guidance at 18z, a huge jump east is definitely noteworthy, especially if other models follow (looks like the icon may be doing so)

[WxFreak11]

If this storm does whiff it would be such a crazy model failure that they could be so wrong 3-4 days out. You would think we could count on some sort of consistency 3-4 days out from a potential threat

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d say you can probably confidently smash that panic button if the gfs etc jump east like the NAM and Icon did