Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[FXWX]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your thinking changed at all?

Not really... I still like the basic setup (location & intensity of the mid-level features) and try not to do any knee jerk changes when still 48 to 60 hours of go time.  I do fully appreciate what Will has been noting about the southern stream but think there is enough time and wiggle room for this to still pan out very good for most of the area.  Reading through the posts, you'd get the impression from some, not most, but some out there that this thing is going east of Bermuda.  This will still be KU even... The basic layout fo the 850/700/500, etc... still look more than good to produce a widespread heavy, to locally excessive snowfall.  Could western CT/MA end up out of the goods, certainly, but I still love the inflow to take care of that to a large extent... Still too much time to try to get too pessimistic about western arears...  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, JC-CT said:

that's one hell of a gradient

You can have one foot in 12" and the other in 15"

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FIRST CALL

If you record 13.1", you get zapped from the matrix

[JC-CT]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

If you record 13.1", you get zapped from the matrix

You can take your 15.0" and stay in your Winter Wonderland, or you can take 14.9" and I show you just how deep the snow hole goes.

[mahk_webstah]

Apparently WPC didn't get the memo on strong inflow pushing qpf far north and west.  Their .75+ line only catches a little bit of SE NH and maybe 1/3 of Mass and half of CT.  Ray and Boston are 1-1.25 but the SE MA folks get the 1.5+

[JC-CT]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Apparently WPC didn't get the memo on strong inflow pushing qpf far north and west.  Their .75+ line only catches a little bit of SE NH and maybe 1/3 of Mass and half of CT.  Ray and Boston are 1-1.25 but the SE MA folks get the 1.5+

maybe they saw the start of the 18z NAM

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

Some of those members are cloudy with flurries here. 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

maybe they saw the start of the 18z NAM

they didn't.  it's getting worse?

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

Ha what a model mean.  Next run it’ll have snow to ALB.

[weathafella]

Watches up

[OceanStWx]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This going to settle and tick best west a bit tonight, IMO....however, in the mean time, I will book telehealth for any WOR clients who see fit- We can contract for safety...

I'm not betting against it, that's for sure. 

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dong ding ding. West of mean. Huge 

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Makes sense .. because by those points along the trajectory of all, the amount of S/stream infusion is already registered, so that only leaves that. 

But also ... we've seen this many times in the past for waves diving SE through eastern Manitoba like that.  Are there are any shadowing issues above there in Canada.   How does that work up there - we don't have schmucks stationed in Met huts launching balloons.  How is that physically sampled?

For all the weenies I have one little kernel to tuck under your pillow for tonight as you dream of northwest trends:

Given that the northern stream shortwave is what ensembles are most sensitive to, and given that this sensitivity really begins to blossom around 12z tomorrow, we need to be conscious of satellite retrieval. In the past (I honestly don't quite know how much improvement there has been) satellites have struggled to adequately capture the depth of Arctic region shortwaves. There are many reasons for it. Relative lack of moisture, extreme cold can bias retrievals, parallax can distort where the satellite thinks the retrieval is coming from, and just the fact that the viewing angle makes it difficult to sample the full troposphere. 

And what do we want from the northern stream to bring this farther northwest? A deeper northern stream shortwave. 

That's not to say it WILL happen, but that it could very easily be a stronger wave than models currently forecast.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

they didn't.  it's getting worse?

it's sure as heck not going to be the 12z

[WinterWolf]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha what a model mean.

If we go by that…it’s game over for everybody.  So at this point everybody better hope that’s not correct. 

[WeatherWilly]

Watches up across rhode island now. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Watches issued by BOX for RI and the South Coast/Cape/Islands minus Nantucket.

[powderfreak]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

If we go by that…it’s game over for everybody.  So at this point everybody better hope that’s not correct. 

It’s the GGEM family. Better at simulating hockey games than weather?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

And snowmap.

[HalloweenGale]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Watches issued by BOX for RI and the South Coast/Cape/Islands minus Nantucket.

ACK might get skunked. Tuckernuck and Muskeget: in the game.

[Chrisrotary12]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FIRST CALL

Reasonable call except for the lack of 13-14" amounts as many have noted.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it's sure as heck not going to be the 12z

Another worrier 

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM will be more tame than 12z looking at 30 hours....not a surprise I guess given how ridiculous the 12z run was.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Another worrier 

I'm commenting on model output, dummy.

[wxsniss]

Thru 33h looks to hang back the southern energy more than 12z... probably more tame outcome than 12z

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not betting against it, that's for sure. 

For all the weenies I have one little kernel to tuck under your pillow for tonight as you dream of northwest trends:

Given that the northern stream shortwave is what ensembles are most sensitive to, and given that this sensitivity really begins to blossom around 12z tomorrow, we need to be conscious of satellite retrieval. In the past (I honestly don't quite know how much improvement there has been) satellites have struggled to adequately capture the depth of Arctic region shortwaves. There are many reasons for it. Relative lack of moisture, extreme cold can bias retrievals, parallax can distort where the satellite thinks the retrieval is coming from, and just the fact that the viewing angle makes it difficult to sample the full troposphere. 

And what do we want from the northern stream to bring this farther northwest? A deeper northern stream shortwave. 

That's not to say it WILL happen, but that it could very easily be a stronger wave than models currently forecast.

 I have 6-12 W CT and 12 -20 river east. If I had to drill down my area, I’d expect 14-18” will be the range that falls 

[moneypitmike]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Or Flemish Cap

 

[dryslot]

Someone should have release the anchor on that southern s/w instead of an improper set and its dragging in the silt.

[IowaStorm05]

Hmm....

[tunafish]

Opening bid from GYX...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1st guess:

East of 495: 12-18

I-91 to I-495: 6-12

Route 7 to I-91: 3-6

 

[tiger_deF]

If the Canadian is right and the max about is less than a foot, this winter gets an automatic F. It would be such an absolute waste of potential