Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[shawnmov]

With how this lame a$$ winter has been, I'll be happy with 12"

And I'll save you the joke.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Folks are having a conniption in CT…Runway needs therapy lol. This is coming back west imo.  

The sampling is getting better as we get closer so trends will be telltale. 

[Snowcrazed71]

54 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah the Euro definitely has a weird evolutuion with that surface low racing NE with the convection. Not sure it makes a huge difference. 

Also it still closes off the 700mb low pretty early. 

What are your thoughts on the Euro still keeping this storm closer in? Do you feel it will track further east like the GFS. Such a big spread between the models 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

when can I schedule?

I have a feeling the 00z runs will be therapeutic enough...but just in case, cope ahead. lol

[CT Valley Dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Thanks. Not as impressive as I thought.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re more correct than not Wiz. 

I try to consider as many different pieces as possible and not just focus on a few specific things. I guess with this sometimes I'll put too much emphasis on "red flags" but more times than not when there are red flags involved (and many) you're more than likely to see lower end totals than higher end. In this particular setup, I'm not so sure there are necessarily red flags as there are caveats. This really ultimately comes down to southern stream evolution and northern stream involvement. 

[subdude]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ll wait until 0z but this is looking like 3-5” is a real possibility for NW MA if we start ticking further East the next 24 hours. 
The winter had been so bad,that at this point, the only way I’ll fully melt down is if there is a rug pull that gives me nothing and that is highly unlikely. 
 

If that's the case, I will be heading to TH in Deerfield on Saturday. 

[George001]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:51 PM, George001 said:

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. 

NYC: 12-18 

Central to eastern long island: 16-20 

1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20

Worcester: 20-24

Berkshires: 24-28

all of CNE and NNE 20+
 

 

Might be a little too conservative, I’m going to make some adjustments after the 0z runs. 

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

I'm with you Wiz! I still think this ends up crushing.

[Go Kart Mozart]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch the 18z NAM tuck this into MVY

Or Flemish Cap

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, subdude said:

If that's the case, I will be heading to TH in Deerfield on Saturday. 

Be sure to visit Yankee Candle.

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

With how this lame a$$ winter has been, I'll be happy with 12"

And I'll save you the joke.

I'd rather 6"... but twice.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, subdude said:

If that's the case, I will be heading to TH in Deerfield on Saturday. 

Make a reservation!   Gorgeous campus. 
 

[moneypitmike]

If Iowa Storm comes in and start talking about how global warming is causing this storm, I'm going to go out, start my car, and leave it running in the driveway.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Folks are having a conniption in CT…Runway needs therapy lol. This is coming back west imo.  

He is so qpf happy. East inflow will throw heavy snow waaayyy west of river 

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Folks are having a conniption in CT…Runway needs therapy lol. This is coming back west imo.  

I wanna fold and melt away at this point, but being 3 days away and only 150 miles from the goods keeps me grounded for now. We have seen big systems like this change in dynamics at this time frame and look like different animals once we get closer. So who knows, start low and hope for higher?

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If Iowa Storm comes in and start talking about how global warming is causing this storm, I'm going to go out, start my car, and leave it running in the driveway.

Gotta go electric bro!

[CT Rain]

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If Iowa Storm comes in and start talking about how global warming is causing this storm, I'm going to go out, start my car, and leave it running in the driveway.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

Woah. Hehe

[amarshall]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

trademark

[JC-CT]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

 

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously it’s a first call…it will have to be adjusted going over the next couple days. 

 

i know, i know...different audiences, different objectives, different accountability, yada yada yada

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

? that looks really east, well east of BM.

Well, woof Hazey

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

if they were good, don't you think i would have posted it and called it King GEPS?

[subdude]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Canadian ensembles. Woof. 

Yikes!

[JC-CT]

@weatherwizyou are really not in a position to be throwing any s around after putting that map out. just saying.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

FIRST CALL

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

@weatherwizyou are really not in a position to be throwing any s around after putting that map out. just saying.

I went to Costco's and got cases of  s. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FIRST CALL

that's one hell of a gradient

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FIRST CALL

Not bad considering the models we have seen.  Hoping for deformation goodies out here.