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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

OTS is always the risk.  They always move east. That’s why I want to see them inland and why I hope to turn the cutter into a SWFE as it moves east. 

Well, I've stated my stance on getting gulf lows to track where its needs to be for up here, And these last few cycles are clearly playing out to it, Could it change? Sure, And some can say what they want and call up storms that have worked out, But if its snowing in DC-Philly-NY, Its generally not snowing in NNE of any significance just facts, We'll continue to watch modeling over the next couple days, But the window is closing for a HECS and that's for up here, Moderate is still on the table.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm telli' y'all - it's because of what Will already mentioned re the next 60 hours.  Soon as he said the 'southern s/w was being left behind,' I didn't need bother looking at the run - yup, nailed it!

When the Euro shed southern stream absorption into the trough, it lost leading S/W ridge roll-out ahead.  Almost all the sensitivity in this is really isolate-able to that factor, and which is rooted back to that stream interaction. 

It's subtle, but HUGELY problematic for solutions farther W.  That loss causes the convection sequencing to run out ...   It'll let cut loose premature, before the trough arrives, and then race out as it starts pulling this apart.  

It's been really remarkably identifiable over the last 4 days of model monitoring - when the S stream fails to fuse in we see these types of E solutions, and vice versa.

The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.

It really is January 2015esque.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lesser southern vort injection is definitely a problem for further west solutions....agreed. Everything happens later and northeast the lesser amount we see southern stream phased in. The southern vort phasing in earlier starts curling the flow back to the left faster....when that curl is delayed, everything takes a wider right jog before eventually trying to come back.

This is turning into more a hybrid than pure Miller A

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Well, I've stated my stance on getting gulf lows to track where its needs to be for up here, And these last few cycles are clearly playing out to it, Could it change? Sure, And some can say what they want and call up storms that have worked out, But if its snowing in DC-Philly-NY, Its generally not snowing in NNE of any significance just facts, We'll continue to watch modeling over the next couple days, But the window is closing for a HECS and that's for up here, Moderate is still on the table.

6-10 I’m still there. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is turning into more a hybrid than pure Miller A

Ha ha.. 'magine that?   if after all this, we end up with a middling NJ Model low...   Ah hell, call the thread a D+ ... "D" for dust off and live for next week's pack assassin pattern.    Can't get snow here any more without sore-butt inches LOL

now that's climate change

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Very confident in these ranges but obviously may have to do some shifting once we get a precisely clear consensus. I do think we'll see a max jackpot strip of 24-30'' but not sure if that includes Connecticut. I am fairly confident though we see heavy banding get much of Connecticut. Thinking snowfall rates 3-5'' under the band with ratios upwards of 18:1 to 20:1 (though I'll admit I'm not sure how to factor wind into lowering these).. 

Two big things of note:

1) QPF is going to be high 

2) Lift will be through the roof

3) Way better than 10:1 ratios.

51487457_firstcallmap.png.101c3f35c57e4773bb9fd6111b9fd1c5.png

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Very confident in these ranges but obviously may have to do some shifting once we get a precisely clear consensus. I do think we'll see a max jackpot strip of 24-30'' but not sure if that includes Connecticut. I am fairly confident though we see heavy banding get much of Connecticut. Thinking snowfall rates 3-5'' under the band with ratios upwards of 18:1 to 20:1 (though I'll admit I'm not sure how to factor wind into lowering these).. 

Two big things of note:

1) QPF is going to be high 

2) Lift will be through the roof

3) Way better than 10:1 ratios.

51487457_firstcallmap.png.101c3f35c57e4773bb9fd6111b9fd1c5.png

Wow. Based on the recent models trending east I would be extremely happy with 12 to 18!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You can definitely tell looking at the EPS members that there are two camps....the more progressive camp and the capture/stall camp....that's why you see all those lows clustered to the southwest near ACK in the 90h panel while a bunch of others are in the gulf of maine.

 

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