Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[radarman]

Gefs mean is pretty well skewed by its far east members that I think can be safely tossed.  Good clustering to the west.

[JC-CT]

man, some new data must have got into this 12z suite. really hope we get some better data in the next couple cycles.

[EastonSN+]

Don't forget we all have to go through the west movement 48 hours before followed by the last second tickle east.

[HinghamBoss]

I'm curious to see which of the Boston tv stations is first to start taking a stab around the infamous accum maps.  

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Now where the hell is the navgem

well well well, mr. my new favorite model

[RobertSul]

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

My crown is slowly disintegrating in front of us. Long live the queen

How do you fade out the letters like that?

[78Blizzard]

We have all these models today, yet 3 days out we still have all this uncertainty.  Imagine what it was like in the days of Don Kent forecasting without these models and relying more on satellite photos.

[JC-CT]

pretty sure only the navgem has the sophistication to be able to properly capture the banding location

[JC-CT]

Just now, RobertSul said:

How do you fade out the letters like that?

no idea it just happened

[WeatherHappens]

5 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

I'm curious to see which of the Boston tv stations is first to start taking a stab around the infamous accum maps.  

Ch 7 will probably have rain for me lol

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

Ch 7 will probably have rain for me lol

Drizzle...

[FXWX]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

YES.

I am confident.

Tremendous inflow

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection.  Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

[weathafella]

Do the usual 70/30 euro/gfs compromise and everyone is happy.

[JC-CT]

navgem understands the inflow!

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

We'll take it, 12Z with new upper air data will be much more important than these off hour runs anyway.

I posted a pdf of a study from Yang done thru 2015 presented at one of the conferences showing how the 6z and 18z runs still have lower verification scores than the 0z and 12z runs and it's mainly because of much fewer conventional obs data (RAOBS) ingested for those runs of the GFS.

[JC-CT]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I posted a pdf study from Yang presented at one of the conferences showing how the 6z and 18z runs still have lower verification scores than the 0z and 12z runs and it's mainly because of much fewer conventional obs data (RAOBS) ingested for those runs of the GFS.

yeah but once you get inside 5 days, they still have more skill than the run 6 hours prior. the time becomes more important than the extra obs at some point. although maybe in a world of reduced commercial air traffic, that's changed a little

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection.  Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

Man, get outta my head lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, JC-CT said:

yeah but once you get inside 5 days, they still have more skill than the run 6 hours prior. the time becomes more important than the extra obs at some point. although maybe in a world of reduced commercial air traffic, that's changed a little

This is true, the lower scores start at around 6 days, once you get within that range, and if you focus on a specific time frame (for example 0z run at 116 hours vs 6z run at 108 hours), the skill scores of the off hour runs improves.  I'd like to see what it's like today, vs that study which was completed in 2015.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, get outta my head lol

This is not one of those storms with a small snowshield this is going to have an impressive wide band of very heavy snow well west of the storm track- like some of the all time greats from yesteryear (Feb 1983 and Jan 1996 just to name a couple.)

 

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, NeonPeon said:

And you're immune to this how, exactly?

You're someone on the interior joyfully hoping that the cape rains so that you get your snow. Tale as old as time. Well, not really, since the advent of publicly consumable computer modeling, anyway.

I wish there was more and better data for southern RI from PT Judith on east. I think there were a few very cold storms in the 60s that buried right to the beach. I saw a few pics from the 60s with Galilee buried under what looks like 15 inches or more. Wind makes things tough in your area too. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don't forget we all have to go through the west movement 48 hours before followed by the last second tickle east.

sounds like some kind of weird and awkward drunken dancing aka "swaying"

 

[Torch Tiger]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ORH will be just far enough west to get that, and I'll be just far enough east to miss it.

I am not convinced of that, yet. More likely yes

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

yeah but once you get inside 5 days, they still have more skill than the run 6 hours prior. the time becomes more important than the extra obs at some point. although maybe in a world of reduced commercial air traffic, that's changed a little

I read somewhere 18Z is better than 6Z runs because more planes in the air, more ACCARS (they used to call it that anyway) ingested.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I read somewhere 18Z is better than 6Z runs because more planes in the air, more ACCARS (they used to call it that anyway) ingested.

makes sense to me

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Do the usual 70/30 euro/gfs compromise and everyone is happy.

Depends on when the 70/30 compromise happens though. Yesterday would have been awesome lol. But If euro ticks east more then today's compromise is no longer good for wsne., 

[radarman]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection.  Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

Also, esp in the Berks they'll likely start snowing tomorrow night and snow off and on til Sunday with the approaching n stream dynamics and the available moisture.  Hi ratio stuff too. I'm thinking 3-6" anyway even if the slp happened to go well east.  Nam has been bullish on the convective processes, which we like to see.

[TalcottWx]

17 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Ch 7 will probably have rain for me lol

I would be devastated seeing that

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[subdude]

39 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Look for the car crash in the atmosphere. Where the winds are both converging (fast to slow) and turning (from ENE to NE or N). Verbatim in this figure that's generally from TOL-ORH-ASH.

WHOA!!

[jbenedet]

euro at 24 looks more amped vs 6z.

West.