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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

We did well in 12/2020 and 12/2019.  

Both of those were meh in WCT so I'm thinking more like Jan11, Oct11, Feb13....those kinds. 

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean I’m not saying lock in a Jack, but I think better than Gfs for sure. Who knows, it won’t take much to send the deformation west. 

Definitely...gfs is too east imwo too. 

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don't see it but I defer to you guys obviously. Regardless, it's been a subpar winter for many so this should change the vibe for yourself and the east at least. GL sir. 

I would definitely be sh**ting in my pants if I was WOR, but I would be far from calling off a big solution there.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would definitely be sh**ting in my pants if I was WOR, but I would be far from calling off a big solution there.

I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms Berks to near Dendrite, GFS like ORH to me. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms e NY State and Berks, GFS like ORH. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.

The deform likes to find the QPF gradient on the models or be just west of it... so I'd agree with that.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms e NY State and Berks, GFS like ORH. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.

you think it will be that far nw of the 700 fronto? that would be 70 miles from the northwest edge of best fronto at 78 on the GFS

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms e NY State and Berks, GFS like ORH. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.

Yeah I think they could still pull a 20 burger band out there....the question is how far does this swing to the right before being pulled back NNW by the ULL capturing it....some of the runs that didn't take a big wide right turn earlier were better for SW CT and NYC...they get more WCB precip on the front end whereas on the wide-right/hook back left solutions, the WOR crowd is relying more on pure CCB/deformation backing into them and they lose some of that front end precip.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The deform likes to find the QPF gradient on the models or be just west of it... so I'd agree with that.

that gradient is from BOS to like Fall River on the GFS. Getting back to put the meat over ORH would be considerably west of that, wouldn't it?

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

Seems to me that the cone is just narrowing, GFS on the eastern side of the cone and NAM/Euro on the western side of the cone.  Either track is possible and the two most likely outcomes are an E MA and Maine special or a more region wide impact. 

Even the eastern side has a mature cyclone, not some strung out POS so whomever is fortunate to be graced by the ccb or deform is going to be piling up lots of snow.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

you think it will be that far nw of the 700 fronto? that would be 70 miles from the northwest edge of best fronto at 78 on the GFS

Look for the car crash in the atmosphere. Where the winds are both converging (fast to slow) and turning (from ENE to NE or N). Verbatim in this figure that's generally from TOL-ORH-ASH.

700rh.us_ne.thumb.png.9f80a9c210a7700087246f75fb305ac1.png

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think they could still pull a 20 burger band out there....the question is how far does this swing to the right before being pulled back NNW by the ULL capturing it....some of the runs that didn't take a big wide right turn earlier were better for SW CT and NYC...they get more WCB precip on the front end whereas on the wide-right/hook back left solutions, the WOR crowd is relying more on pure CCB/deformation backing into them and they lose some of that front end precip.

Right.....which is why they probably won't jackpot, as it looked like maybe yesterday.

ORH will be just far enough west to get that, and I'll be just far enough east to miss it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

that gradient is from BOS to like Fall River on the GFS. Getting back to put the meat over ORH would be considerably west of that, wouldn't it?

Yeah I'd think it ends up more like KBED... near where Ray and Will live on that axis.  But it's still so early.  Maybe within 48 hours we can get a better picture.

I just looked at the GEFS and they've been incredibly consistent in the means.  KBED QPF is 0.50" and last 3 runs are 0.46", 0.50", 0.52".  4 runs back was 0.74".  But for 4 cycles it looks almost identical on the QPF progs to be honest.  Pretty decent consistency.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I'd think it ends up more like KBED... near where Ray and Will live on that axis.  But it's still so early.  Maybe within 48 hours we can get a better picture.

I just looked at the GEFS and they've been incredibly consistent in the means.  KBED QPF is 0.50" and last 3 runs are 0.46", 0.50", 0.52".  4 runs back was 0.74".  But for 4 cycles it looks almost identical on the QPF progs to be honest.  Pretty decent consistency.

That's gonna bust so bad.

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